Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"And yet Belarus just happily did that. Just these threats thrown around with wild abandon. It's just absolutely not on. Not on."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, noting his busy day ahead which will impact video timings. He explains there will be a delay before parts 2 and 3 are uploaded due to real-life commitments. Jonathan emphasises that real life sometimes takes precedence, apologising for any inconvenience caused.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report
🎦 00:35-02:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting the high personnel losses of 1,124. He connects this to reports from Ukrainian sources about successful strikes on Russian troop accumulations and logistics around Avdiivka. He notes that equipment losses are relatively average, with 38 artillery systems and three anti-aircraft systems lost. Jonathan observes that these figures align with recent trends and reflect the impact of Ukrainian efforts to target Russian logistics and troop movements.
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Russian Helicopter Destroyed Near Moscow
🎦 02:15-04:00⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Russian Ka-32 helicopter at Ostafievo International Airfield in Moscow. He cites reports from Anton Gerashchenko and Ukrainian media outlet NV, which attribute the attack to partisan sabotage. The helicopter, reportedly belonging to the Russian Defence Ministry, was allegedly used for logistical support and evacuation operations for Russian forces in Ukraine. Jonathan highlights the significance of this attack occurring within Russia, suggesting increasing vulnerability and potential partisan activity. He notes the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence's release of a video of the helicopter's destruction.
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Ukrainian Strike on Russian Radar System
🎦 04:00-04:55⏩
Jonathan reports on a successful Ukrainian strike against a new Russian Podlet radar system, worth an estimated $5 million. He cites Anton Gerschenko, who states that Ukrainian Defence Intelligence and the 15th Separate Brigade inflicted significant damage on the radar's antenna, feeder installation, and diesel station. Jonathan explains the radar system's importance as a relatively new development used to guide Russian S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. He connects this strike to rumours of Ukraine targeting Russian air defence assets in preparation for the arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
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Fire at Shopping Market in Stavropol Region, Russia
🎦 04:55-05:34⏩
Jonathan shares footage of a fire at a shopping market in Russia's Stavropol region, noting a significant explosion. He comments on the apparent vulnerability of Russian infrastructure to fires.
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Russian Missile Attacks on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure
🎦 05:34-10:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the overnight missile attacks by Russia, observing that 21 out of 34 air targets were destroyed. He expresses concern that 13 missiles, not drones, penetrated Ukrainian air defences, posing a significant challenge. He lists the types of missiles used and their success rates: six out of nine Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles were shot down, eight out of nine Kh-59/69s, one out of two Iskander Ks, zero out of four Kinzhals (hypersonic missiles), and zero out of two S-300 ballistic missiles used in ground attack mode. He highlights the particular threat posed by the hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, noting their speed and kinetic impact. Jonathan reports damage to four Ukrainian thermal power plants, resulting in casualties, citing information from DTEK, a private Ukrainian energy company. He analyses a map of the missile trajectories, suggesting Lviv in western Ukraine as the primary target, and notes the use of Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea, a change in Russian tactics. Jonathan shares Tim White's reports of explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Dnipro, with the energy sector being targeted in all three cities. He speculates that S-300s may have struck Dnipro from closer to the front lines. Jonathan expresses concern over the impact on Ukrainian power infrastructure, particularly the complete destruction of a power plant in Ivano-Frankivsk. He acknowledges the difficulties in assessing damage due to Ukrainian restrictions on showing impact sites for operational security reasons.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries and Airfield
🎦 10:41-14:36⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia, confirming strikes in the Krasnodar region. He details attacks on two oil refineries—the Slavyansk Echo plant and the Ilia refinery—and a military airfield in Kushchevskaya, citing Ukrainian confirmation. He shares footage of the aftermath, showing explosions at a refinery. Jonathan notes Russian claims of shooting down 66 drones in Krasnoyarsk, expressing scepticism about their accuracy and suggesting that many drones likely got through. He points to the discovery of scattered guided glide bomb components at the attacked airfield, indicating Ukrainian attempts to neutralise this threat at its source. Jonathan provides further details on the attacks, citing reports from various sources, including Special Kherson Cat. He notes the partial suspension of operations at the Slavyansk Echo oil refinery due to fire damage caused by drones. He also mentions the Ilinsky oil refinery being damaged in the attacks and that both refineries had been previously targeted, highlighting the ongoing nature of this conflict and the need for repeated strikes.
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Location of Krasnodar
🎦 14:36-14:38⏩
Jonathan provides a geographical context for viewers, explaining that Krasnodar is a region located east of the Sea of Azov, accessible by crossing the Kerch Bridge from Crimea. He points out the city of Krasnodar's proximity to the Kerch Strait and its location north of the strait on the route to Rostov-on-Don.
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Arrest of Russian Deputy Defence Minister
🎦 14:38-16:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the arrest of Russia's Deputy Defence Minister on corruption charges, suggesting it's likely politically motivated. He argues that corruption is so pervasive in Russia that anyone in a position of power could be arrested, implying the charges are often a pretext for removing individuals deemed inconvenient or threatening to the Kremlin. Jonathan presents the case of Timur Ivanov, showcasing images of his extravagant mansion as an example of the ill-gotten wealth accumulated by Russian officials. He sarcastically remarks on the supposed perks of government jobs in Russia, highlighting the stark contrast between the lavish lifestyles of the elite and the reality for ordinary citizens. Jonathan humorously interjects about his own lifestyle, suggesting that even if he were wealthy, he would likely continue his work on the channel.
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Belarusian KGB Threats Against Kyiv Hospitals
🎦 16:53-18:43⏩
Jonathan condemns the Belarusian KGB's threats against two hospitals in Kyiv, expressing disgust at this action. He explains that the Kyiv City Administration was forced to evacuate two hospitals following specific threats made by Ivan Tertel, head of the KGB in Belarus. Tertel stated that Belarus would target "terrorists" hiding in Kyiv hospitals, even going as far as providing their addresses and justifying these actions as necessary in wartime. Jonathan criticises Belarus for making threats against civilian infrastructure, particularly hospitals, and using the presence of sick children as a justification. He argues that such actions warrant a strong response from the international community and draws a comparison with the hypothetical outrage if the UK threatened hospitals in Paris.
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Ukrainian Cyberattack on United Russia Party
🎦 18:43-19:30⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian cyberattack against the United Russia Party, stating that Ukraine is retaliating against Russia's political system. He explains that United Russia, Putin's party, experienced a significant Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack on their electronic services. Jonathan explains how DDoS attacks function, overwhelming websites with traffic to render them inoperable.
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Gerasimov's Dislocated Knee
🎦 19:30-22:01⏩
Jonathan revisits the case of Gerasimov, the Russian commander-in-chief, who had been conspicuously absent for a period, leading to speculation about his fate. Jonathan expresses surprise as Gerasimov reappeared after a long absence. Initially, he speculated that Gerasimov was either dead or seriously injured following a Ukrainian strike on his supposed location in Crimea. However, recent Russian state media reports claimed that Gerasimov had been recovering from a dislocated knee since January, a claim Jonathan finds dubious, pointing to Gerasimov's recent public appearances where he showed no signs of such an injury. He maintains that Gerasimov's prolonged absence suggests something more serious than a dislocated knee, suggesting a possible brain injury or other underlying health condition. Jonathan concludes that the official explanation for Gerasimov's absence lacks credibility and believes a more plausible reason is being concealed.
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Wrap Up
🎦 22:01-22:13⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, thanking viewers for watching. He reminds them that due to his busy schedule, the next parts of the update will be uploaded later in the day.
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