Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230727a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"When you look at the Russian sources on the ground they tell a bit of a different story and they say oh yeah do you know what it's going pretty well for the Ukrainians and we're in a bit of trouble"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Ukraine war for 27th July 2023. The video will be split into two parts.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff reported the following Russian losses for the previous day:
- 590 liquidated personnel
- 9 tanks
- 11 APVs
- 18 artillery systems (a heavy loss, though not the biggest seen)
- 3 drones
- 40 cruise missiles (possibly including the previous night's attack)
- 11 vehicles and fuel tanks
The 18 artillery systems lost is still problematic for the Russians. An Estonian ambassador to Kyiv said, based on his meetings with Ukrainian officials, the Russians are still suffering more casualties at a ratio of 6:1.
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Russian Pilot Losses
The 38th Marines Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter, killing the commander of the 112th Separate Helicopter Regiment, Colonel Vitaly Tabachnikov. This is significant as it means Russia is losing high-ranking, experienced pilots, which could impact their future military power and ability to train new pilots.
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Strikes and Missile Attacks
- President Zelensky said over 30 missiles were shot down during the day's missile raid. There were several hits but the audacity attack was destroyed.
- Throughout the day, 45 Kinzhal/Kh-101/Kh-555/Kalibr missiles were launched at Ukraine. 38 out of the 45 were intercepted (84.4% interception rate). 4 Kinzhals and 3 Kh-101/Kh-555s got through.
- After the cruise missiles, Shahed drones flew into Ukraine overnight. Explosions were reported in Kharkiv. All 8 drones were destroyed (100% success rate).
- The Russians targeted the Starokostiantyniv airfield hosting Su-24M tactical bombers that launch Storm Shadow missiles. It's unclear if all missiles were shot down - this would be a significant target for Russia to disrupt Ukraine's Storm Shadow capabilities.
- Russian strikes hit civilian targets including a granary in Kherson (likely a war crime targeting food production) and a residential building in Kharkiv oblast, killing one and injuring four.
Snake Island Attack
There are rumours that Russia attacked Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island) in the Black Sea yesterday. The island was previously contested and eventually made untenable for Russian forces to remain after Ukrainian artillery strikes. Ukraine likely has air defences and other positions on the island now.
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Counteroffensive Progress
There has been a lot of talk about Ukraine starting the major thrust of their counteroffensive yesterday, with reports of AT vehicles and mechanised units being sent to the Robotyne area. The New York Times and Pentagon officials claim the main thrust is now underway in the southeast. However, there is some pushback, with people like Kent Gregg, a Finnish fighter in Ukraine, saying it's not true and no more forces are being used than previously. The distinction drawn by analysts Michael Weiss and Jimmy Rushton is that while some in the West bemoan the supposedly slow Ukrainian advance, Russian sources describe a very worrying and effective Ukrainian operation. When you look at the Russian perspective on the ground, they suggest things are going pretty well for Ukraine and causing trouble for Russia.
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Olenivka Prison Attack
A year ago, a prison in Olenivka holding predominantly Azov Regiment POWs was hit by a rocket and blown up. Russia claimed it was struck by a HIMARS rocket, blaming Ukraine. However, as a CNN investigation found at the time, this was staged by Russia. Now the UN has come to the same conclusion, rejecting Russia's account and confirming it as another Russian war crime. This raises questions about the morality of those still ardently defending Russia's actions.
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Other News
- The FSB imposed a ban on civilians visiting the Arabat Spit in Crimea, a precarious but strategically important route onto the peninsula. The reasons are unclear but it may be related to Russian military activities.
- A Russian fighter jet attacked another American MQ-9 Reaper drone in Syria, the 6th such incident in a month. The drone was damaged. A day prior, Russian aircraft also flew dangerously close to manned and unmanned US aircraft. The US condemned these provocations as violations of international law. The question is how to deter Russia without escalating to war.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching this first part of the news update video. He asks people to like, subscribe and share, and to check out the upcoming part two.
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