Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's really tough in Chaziv Yar, I think, for both sides. Really attritional, heavy fighting taking there and has been, obviously, for a long time."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a two-day Ukraine War Frontline Update, acknowledging JR's assistance with the mapping. He reminds viewers to check the map legend if needed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Harkiv: Vovchansk Update
🎦 00:47-02:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the contested area near Vovchansk, with varying accounts of whether Ukrainian forces have fully encircled the Russians at the aggregate plant. He highlights the ISW's assessment that Ukrainians may only need to advance 200 meters for full encirclement but acknowledges the situation is fluid. Jonathan notes differing opinions amongst the mappers: Deep State Map suggests a minor Ukrainian extension of control, while Global War Monitor depicts Ukrainian pushback in the middle section countered by Russian consolidation around it. He observes that Global War Monitor's interpretation differs from other mappers.
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Harkiv: Lyobeke & Northern Salient Update
🎦 02:22-03:46⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Lyobeke, where Global War Monitor indicates a Russian pushback. He reviews the two easternmost salients, mentioning a potential Russian retreat in the western one. While acknowledging slight variations between different mappers' interpretations, he points out that Global War Monitor is more favorable towards Ukrainian gains in this area.
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Northeastern Axis: Kupiansk-Kreminna Line Update
🎦 03:46-06:53⏩
Jonathan observes heightened activity along the Kupiansk-Kreminna line, particularly near Ivanovka, west of Yahidne. Surat Maps highlights a Russian advance from Ivanovka to Stepova Novoselivka, pushing Ukrainian forces to the village's edge. Jonathan notes a discrepancy, as other mappers depict Stepova Novoselivka as a grey zone. South of Novoselivka, Surat Maps and other mappers show Russian gains toward Stelmakivka, potentially part of a larger push towards Barova. Jonathan observes Russian progress near Makivka, advancing along a river gorge and a southern tree line. He also notes a two-day change in Chaziv Yar, particularly around Bodonivka. Surat Maps reports a Russian intensification of attacks towards Triarivka, seizing fortifications, and towards Orykovo-Vasylivka, where they were repelled by Ukrainian forces. Jonathan highlights the tough, attritional fighting in Chaziv Yar for both sides.
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Donetsk: Torsk - Avdiivka - Pisky Line Update
🎦 06:53-13:29⏩
Jonathan observes a Russian gain towards Tors'k, advancing through Pivnichne along the main road, raising concerns due to Ukrainian challenges in the area. Despite some Ukrainian pushback noted by Surat Maps, Russians seem to be making gains. Jonathan highlights a Russian advance just north of Novoselivka, on the Avdiivka salient's northern part. He points out a Russian push towards the T0504 highway, with Surat Maps indicating their gain in a tree line and field en route to Voivodske, situated east of Nova Aleksandrivka. He expresses concern about the consistent Russian pressure across the Avdiivka sector. Jonathan notes the capture of Yesnobradivka, southwest of Umanske. He revisits his previous analysis of the "funnel," where he anticipated difficulties for Russian advancement due to water features. The Russians seem to be creeping along the edges of these features instead of a direct assault. He points out Russian gains in Karlivka, advancing through its easternmost outskirts. All mappers agree on significant Russian control between Kalynove and Novomykolaivka, south of Karlivka. He expresses concern about the slow Russian takeover of well-fortified Ukrainian positions northeast of Nevelske. Jonathan ends the topic with footage he shared earlier in the day showcasing Ukrainian destruction of Russian vehicles and motorcycles near Vuhledar, highlighting the heavy Russian casualties in that sector.
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Donetsk: Vuhledar - Robotyne Update
🎦 13:29-14:27⏩
Jonathan points out a Ukrainian pushback in Robotyne, according to Andrew Perpetua's mapping, suggesting evidence like Russian artillery strikes indicating a Ukrainian presence. He notes no other changes in Robotyne or the broader Velyka Novosilka area.
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Kherson Update
🎦 14:27-15:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the Kherson front, reporting that Ukrainian forces have been pushed back from the Dnipro's left bank, confirming previous assessments. He notes the area is marked as a grey zone by Deep State and Andrew Perpetua, possibly due to ongoing drone activity and the absence of firm Russian control. He mentions Russian efforts to reclaim the islands in the Dnipro River Delta, as reported by the ISW, but without confirmation. Jonathan believes it is unlikely the Ukrainians would still be fighting on the left bank.
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Torsk: Underground Tunnel Warfare
🎦 15:25-17:10⏩
Jonathan returns to the Torsk area, bringing up an ISW report on the Russian advance near Pivnichne on June 30th. The report claims that elements of the Russian Veterani Assault Detachment, likely referring to the Veterani Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade (a volunteer assault corps), advanced through an underground tunnel to seize a Ukrainian stronghold on Pivnichne's eastern outskirts. They reportedly surprised the Ukrainian forces, forcing their surrender and retreat. While lacking visual confirmation, Jonathan finds this tactic frustrating but not surprising, recalling similar Russian tunnel attacks in Avdiivka that led to Ukrainian setbacks and the capture of their soldiers.
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Wrap Up
🎦 17:10-17:25⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update, urging viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He announces an upcoming live stream with Erland and Daniela from Turchy.
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