Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Now Russia is screwed. And all we have to do is survive one more year while Russia burns the last of midnight oil. And you know the point where Russia is well and truly effed. It will be the day Putin says he wants to negotiate."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and introduces the Ukraine War News update for 7th February 2025, Part 1.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses from Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:08-00:42⏩
- Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats.
- Personnel Losses: Over 1,300, specifically 1,340, which is slightly higher than the recent daily average.
- Equipment Losses:
- 10 tanks (around daily average)
- 18 Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs) (slightly below daily average)
- 32 artillery systems (well above daily average)
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 96 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 1 piece of special equipment
- Jonathan notes these are "fairly good numbers" for Ukraine.
Russian Casualties due to "Assault for Assault's Sake"
🎦 01:08-01:26⏩
- Chris O'Wickey reports that the Russian army is suffering exceptionally high casualties in Ukraine.
- This is attributed to "assault for the sake of assault", as described by a blogger.
- These are performative attacks, mainly to show superiors that orders are being followed.
Lack of Russian Organisation and False Reporting
🎦 01:26-01:46⏩
- A Russian philologist from the Ambush Telegram channel highlights the issue of disorganisation within the Russian forces.
- He uses scare quotes around "organisation", implying its absence.
- A "good comrade from the ground" is quoted, further emphasizing the lack of organisation.
Static Frontline near Siversk and Bakhmut
🎦 02:16-02:47⏩
- The Russian source describes the frontline north of Bakhmut, near Siversk, as relatively static.
- Fighting is concentrated around chalk mine pits and mountainous hills east of Siversk.
- Minimal movement, except slightly near Vergnakomoyansk, south of Siversk.
- Physical geography, including the Siverskyi Donets River to the north, restricts significant advances without flanking manoeuvres.
Russian Losses and "Offensive Madness" in 2023
🎦 02:47-03:42⏩
- The area near Siversk was the site of heavy Russian losses in 2023, particularly for the 2nd Guards Army Corps (now 3rd Guards Combined Arms Army).
- "Cascades of attacks" continued from February 2024, with a brief pause to reinforce depleted brigades in April.
- These attacks were purportedly to capture Bila Hrvka, a "capture" that was falsely reported by the Ministry of Defence.
- A video of soldiers raising a Russian flag in ruins was used to support this false claim.
Discrepancy Between Reports and Reality Leads to Commander Replacement
🎦 03:42-04:25⏩
- The discrepancy between official reports and the actual situation on the ground became apparent to top military leadership in November 2024.
- This realisation occurred after a senior officer presented the true facts.
- Consequently, the commander of the Southern Military District, Colonel General Alexander Sanchik, was replaced in November 2024.
- Several other Russian commanders were reportedly removed and arrested for false claims about advances near Bielorussia.
Bilohevka as a Symbol of "Offensive Madness"
🎦 04:25-04:57⏩
- Bilohevka is described as an especially "cursed place" due to the intense and ultimately pointless fighting there.
- This "offensive madness" extends beyond Bilohevka and is characteristic of Russia's approach, despite claims of "strategic initiative".
- The source highlights the heavy casualties ("cripples") in assaults and fortifications.
- Praises frontline aviation and drone pilots for their role in mitigating losses.
Pointless Assaults to Validate False Claims
🎦 04:57-05:23⏩
- Russia continues to falsely claim territorial gains and then launches pointless assaults to retroactively justify these claims.
- This strategy results in unnecessary troop losses for Russia.
- The core issues are a lack of organisation and a disconnect between the perceived reality at higher levels and the actual situation on the ground.
Video Evidence of Hospitalised Soldiers Being Forcibly Recruited
🎦 05:36-05:53⏩
- Video evidence shows Russian recruiters going to hospitals and forcibly removing recently operated-on soldiers.
- These soldiers, some on crutches, are being put into vans and sent back to the front lines.
- This is presented as further evidence of the disorganised and desperate state of the Russian military.
Widespread Footage of Injured Soldiers at the Front
🎦 05:53-06:24⏩
- Numerous videos, including drone footage and footage from Russian soldiers, show "cripple units" and soldiers on crutches at the front.
- Jonathan mentions a video of soldiers on crutches seemingly going on assault and another inappropriate video of a soldier trying to fight off a drone with a crutch.
- This suggests the problem of deploying injured soldiers is not isolated but systemic.
Russian Soldier's Complaint from Hospital
🎦 06:36-07:13⏩
- World Translator shares a video of a Russian soldier complaining about being forcibly taken from hospital the day after surgery.
- The soldier shows his leg injuries as proof and states they were promised no immediate combat but are transported to units without proper conditions.
- Jonathan highlights the "scare quotes promised", indicating the soldier's disbelief in the promise.
- The soldier's severe leg injuries are clearly visible, yet he is being sent back to the front.
Russian Numerical Superiority Offset by Ukrainian Drones
🎦 07:19-07:36⏩
- According to the Wall Street Journal, Russian forces outnumber Ukrainians 5 to 1 in the Donbas region.
- Russia is sending unmotivated men under 50 with no combat experience.
- Ukraine compensates for infantry shortages by producing 200,000 drones per month.
- Western support remains crucial, but Ukraine is facing ammunition shortages, a point Jonathan notes as newly reported.
Former UK Politician Joins Ukrainian International Legion
🎦 07:43-08:10⏩
- Jack Lepresti, former deputy chairman of the British Conservative Party, has joined the International Legion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- He lost his seat in the last election and joined the Legion, having visited Ukraine in early 2023 and November 2024.
- Lepresti is in a "bespoke position" utilising his skills in weapons procurement and international relations.
- He states his motivation is to support the Ukrainian people and for Europe, believing a Putin victory would be "catastrophic".
Destruction of Russian Military Equipment
🎦 08:32-08:56⏩
- Max24 and other sources report that Ukrainian forces in the south destroyed Russian equipment in the last 24 hours.
- Equipment destroyed includes:
- A Russian TOS-1A thermobaric launcher
- An ARC-1 Lynx artillery radar system
- A Zupak radar system (also reported destroyed)
- Jonathan notes this as "fairly decent equipment" losses for Russia, indicating successful Ukrainian strikes.
Suspicious Death of Russian Musician in St. Petersburg
🎦 08:56-09:19⏩
- Vadim Stroykin, a musician in St. Petersburg, allegedly fell out of his 10th-floor kitchen window.
- Police claim it was suicide, but there is "high probability of state-sanctioned murder".
- Stroykin was a popular singer-songwriter who opposed the war.
- He reportedly "committed suicide" when police arrived to search his home after an "extremist article".
Timber Processing Complex Fire in Okhotsk Region
🎦 09:39-09:58⏩
- A large fire broke out at a timber processing complex sorting shop in the Okhotsk region of Russia.
- The fire covered 2,000 square metres.
- Jonathan remarks that fires in Russia "just keep happening".
Fire on Russian Spy Ship off Syrian Coast
🎦 09:58-10:35⏩
- A Russian spy ship, the Kildin, caught fire off the Syrian coast on January 23rd, according to the Associated Press and PS01.
- The ship, loaded with intelligence equipment, sailed out of control.
- NATO ship nearby observed flames and black smoke for at least four hours and offered assistance, which was declined.
- The Kildin is currently near Tartus, continuing to gather intelligence despite the fire.
- Russia has not publicly acknowledged the incident, and Jonathan speculates on whether it was sabotage or a breakdown.
High Interception Rate of Russian Drones
🎦 10:41-10:59⏩
- Ukraine achieved a "really good night" with a 100% interception rate of Russian drones.
- 112 drones were launched at Ukraine.
- 81 drones were shot down, and 31 were stopped by electronic warfare, falling harmlessly.
- Debris caused damage in Sumy, Kyiv and Khmelnytskyi.
- Overall, Jonathan views the interception rate as good news, as rates have been variable recently.
Small Arms Fire Interception of Drone
🎦 11:09-11:30⏩
- Jonathan references footage (linked in description, not shown due to YouTube restrictions) of a drone being shot down with small arms fire, likely a Shahid 131 or 136.
- He describes it as a "low-tech solution" and "really good news".
- The footage shows someone "throwing some lead into the sky" and successfully destroying a drone.
Rumour of Failed Russian Hypersonic Missile Launch
🎦 11:43-12:56⏩
- A rumour, originating from Forbes and David Axe, suggested Russia launched a second "aeration" (likely intended to be "hypersonic") ballistic missile at Ukraine.
- The claim was that this missile exploded over Russia, possibly in the Astrakhan region, and was aimed at Kyiv.
- However, Colby Badwar and others are casting doubt on the report, citing thin sourcing and lack of corroboration.
- David Axe's reliability is questioned.
- No debris footage has emerged, making the claim unlikely to be true.
- Jonathan concludes that it is "generally thought to not be true".
Ukrainian Claim of Downing a Russian Guided Glide Bomb
🎦 12:56-13:14⏩
- Ukraine claims to have shot down a Russian "carb" or "carb guided glide bomb" for the first time in the suburbs of Zaporizhzhia.
- Jonathan corrects "carb" to "KAB" (presumably referring to KAB guided bombs).
- The weapon used by Ukraine might be experimental, possibly laser-based.
- Downing glide bombs is significant as they are a "scourge of the front line" causing substantial damage, and difficult to counter even with GPS jamming.
Kursk Region: Gas Pipeline and Power Line Damage
🎦 14:06-14:27⏩
- Fighting in the Kursk region of Russia continues to cause problems.
- A high-pressure gas pipeline in Kribeyshev, near Rylsk, was shelled, causing a fire (reported extinguished) and cutting off gas to nearby villages.
- Damage to a power line has caused electricity outages in the same area.
Ukrainian Advances in Kursk Region
🎦 14:27-14:45⏩
- Despite difficulty in verifying information, Jonathan believes Ukrainian forces have advanced into the Kursk region, specifically to Chukotka, Konopelka, and Ulanok.
- They are reportedly making good progress in this area.
Russian Z-Bloggers Report "Operational Defeat" in Kursk
🎦 14:45-15:26⏩
- Anton Gerashchenko reports that Russian Z-bloggers are discussing an "operational defeat" of the Russian army in the Suj direction of the Kursk region.
- A Russian source is quoted describing the enemy's improved position and potential for further advances.
- The source criticises the Russian command for causing the situation and predicts they will resort to sending untrained fighters into battle to conceal their failures, increasing losses.
Dismissal of Russian Brigade Commander
🎦 15:52-16:02⏩
- Following Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, Pavel Filatyev, commander of Russia's 11th Separate Guards Air Assault Brigade, has been dismissed.
- Jonathan sees this as a "good sign".
Continued Heavy Fighting and Ukrainian Advance in Kursk
🎦 16:02-16:21⏩
- Sean Pinner reports heavy fighting continuing in Kursk, with a Ukrainian advance estimated at roughly four kilometers further into Russia.
- Unconfirmed reports suggest a North Korean special forces officer has been captured, potentially providing valuable intelligence.
Putin Admits "Difficult Situation" in Kursk
🎦 16:21-16:30⏩
- Putin has acknowledged that the situation in Kursk is "very difficult".
- Jonathan emphasises that Putin admitting difficulty is significant.
Kherson Described as "Terrible Place" to Live
🎦 16:30-16:53⏩
- In contrast to Kursk, Kherson on the Dnipro River is described as a "really terrible place to be".
- Russia is trying to force residents out of the city.
- Some districts are almost completely destroyed.
- Russian forces are firing on buildings, vehicles, and people, with drones actively hunting any movement.
- Jonathan expresses horror at the situation in Kherson.
Dismissal of Russian Space Chief
🎦 16:53-17:09⏩
- Borisov, Russia's space chief, has been dismissed amidst failures in the space program.
- Yuri Borisov previously held a key role in Russia's military-industrial sector, overseeing rearmament since 2011.
- This dismissal is seen as another indication that things are not going well behind the scenes in Russia.
US USAID Staff Cuts
🎦 17:19-17:54⏩
- Trump administration is reportedly planning to lay off nearly all USAID staff worldwide, according to the New York Times.
- Cuts could reduce staff from 10,000 to just 290, a massive reduction (approximately 97%).
- Jonathan highlights the significant impact this will have, especially on Ukraine, given the numerous USAID projects there.
Ukrainian Bonds Climb Amid War-Ending Deal Expectations
🎦 17:54-18:14⏩
- Ukrainian dollar bonds have risen for the fifth consecutive day, reaching new highs.
- This is attributed to growing expectations of a war-ending deal emerging next week, reported by Bloomberg.
- Ukrainian debt rallied across all maturities, with 2034 notes exceeding 60 cents on the dollar.
- The bond rally is linked to anticipation of a deal and upcoming meetings like the Munich Security Conference and Ramstein meeting, potentially involving Keith Kellogg and Pete Hegseth.
Mixed Messages from US Regarding Russia
🎦 18:30-18:33⏩
Jonathan highlights "mixed messages" coming from the US regarding Russia and the conflict. This sets up the following topics discussing these conflicting signals.
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Trump Envoy Kellogg: Potential for Increased Sanctions
🎦 18:37-19:17⏩
- There is talk of Trump, via envoy Keith Kellogg, being ready to "double down on Russian sanctions".
- Jonathan expresses approval if true, stating sanctions are the best way for Trump to "screw over Russia" economically.
- Kellogg suggests pressure on Russia should be economic and diplomatic, not military, requiring concessions from both Ukraine and Russia, which Jonathan generally agrees with.
Limited Significance of Kellogg's Comments
🎦 19:25-19:51⏩
- Tim White downplays the significance of Kellogg's comments, suggesting they are being overemphasised.
- White points out that Kellogg merely reiterated previous statements about potential for tightening sanctions if needed.
- Jonathan agrees with White's assessment, indicating the positive reporting on Kellogg's comments for Ukraine might be overstated and not represent new information.
Confusion and Lack of Imminent US Peace Plan
🎦 19:51-20:07⏩
- Despite claims of an imminent US peace plan boosting markets, Jonathan argues the reality is "not that".
- He describes the reality as "massively confused" and "bad news".
Trump Administration Disbands Task Force Targeting Russian Oligarchs
🎦 20:12-20:31⏩
- The Trump administration has reportedly disbanded the task force targeting Russian oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska.
- Jonathan expresses strong negative reaction ("terrible"), seeing this as detrimental and beneficial to Russia.
- He highlights that this anti-corruption task force was responsible for seizing assets.
Disbanding of Counterterrorism and Foreign Interference Units
🎦 20:31-21:16⏩
- Further concerning actions by the Trump administration include disbanding or taking back the counterterrorism unit and the department investigating foreign interference in US elections.
- Jonathan reiterates that these actions are "not good", detrimental to Ukraine, and beneficial to Russia, who will be "laughing".
- He expresses disbelief and frustration at these developments, stating it feels like the US government is actively trying to help Russia.
Kleptocracy Initiative Disbanded
🎦 21:37-22:15⏩
- "Apple band" (likely referring to a news source) reports Trump's Department of Justice has "killed its elite anti-corruption unit", the kleptocracy initiative, and task force klepto-capture.
- Attorney General Pan Bondi reportedly announced the immediate closure via email.
- These units recovered billions in stolen assets since 2010.
- Jonathan expresses shock and incomprehension at why these units would be disbanded.
Zelensky: Trump Has No Official Peace Plan
🎦 22:26-22:58⏩
- Zelensky states that Trump has no official plan to end Russia's war against Ukraine, contradicting earlier reports.
- This is reported by Interfax Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes the contrast with Trump's prior claim of solving the war "in one day".
- He concludes from the various data points that "there is no clear plan".
Lack of Clear US Plan Evidenced by Disbanding Anti-Corruption Units
🎦 22:58-23:23⏩
- Jonathan argues that disbanding kleptocracy units and foreign interference investigation departments suggests the absence of a clear US plan for Ukraine.
- He describes the situation as "pure insanity".
Andrew Perpetua: No Negotiations with Russia in 2025
🎦 23:23-23:30⏩
- Andrew Perpetua argues there is "absolutely no reason" for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in 2025.
Negotiations Should Wait Until Mid-2026 for Russian Economic Implosion
🎦 23:30-23:41⏩
- Perpetua believes negotiations should only begin in mid-2026 when the Russian economy has imploded due to massive deficits.
- He predicts Russia will be unable to continue fighting by then.
Ukraine War "75% Done", One Year Left
🎦 23:41-24:01⏩
- Perpetua suggests the war is "75% done" and has "one year left".
- He advocates for providing Ukraine with necessary funding, weapons and ammunition now to ensure this outcome.
- He believes Russia will have "zero ability" to wage war after 2027.
Russia's Implosion as Negotiation Tactic for Ukraine's Victory
🎦 24:01-24:35⏩
- Perpetua proposes making the threat of prolonging the war into 2027 a negotiation tactic against Russia.
- Supplying Ukraine until then risks "absolute implosion" for Russia, potentially leading to the collapse of the Russian nation.
- This implosion, not military victory, is seen as the path to Ukraine's win, forcing Russia to leave willingly.
- Jonathan agrees with this assessment, stating it aligns with his long-held view.
Russia's Economic Unsustainability
🎦 24:48-25:09⏩
- Russia cannot sustain large annual deficits ($50-100 billion) as they have no access to borrowing.
- War funding would require massive inflation and layoffs, causing economic collapse across all sectors.
- Russia has depleted its liquid assets and has no viable alternatives.
Russia "All In" in 2024, Now "Screwed"
🎦 25:16-25:42⏩
- Russia went "all in" in 2024, using all available resources (propaganda, mobilisation, equipment, etc.) but failed to achieve significant gains in Ukraine or weaken the Ukrainian government.
- As a result, Jonathan declares "Now Russia is screwed".
- He believes survival for one more year will lead to Russia being "well and truly effed".
Negotiation Strategy: Delay and Weaken Russia
🎦 25:42-26:23⏩
- Jonathan outlines a negotiation strategy:
- Wait until Putin wants to negotiate (indication of weakness).
- Delay negotiations for 6-8 months initially.
- When negotiations start, prolong them for 6-12 months.
- This strategy aims to weaken Putin further and increase his desperation to end the war, forcing him to concede to Ukraine's demands.
Perpetua's Plan Superior to Trump Administration's Actions
🎦 26:23-27:09⏩
- Jonathan finds Andrew Perpetua's plan more coherent and clear than the actions of the Trump administration.
- He criticises the Trump administration for being "all over the shop" and implementing policies that benefit Russia (cutting USAID, anti-corruption units, counterintelligence, etc.).
- He expresses bewilderment at these actions, suggesting they are "entirely the wrong thing" and counter to US interests.
Wrap up
🎦 27:09-27:10⏩
Jonathan concludes the video and signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
- TASK 2 (Topic Titles):
- Scan Transcript for Topics: I will read through the transcript chronologically, identifying distinct topics based on changes in subject matter. I'll look for natural breaks and shifts in discussion.
- "Hello Team" Topic (ID 1): The beginning of the transcript is clearly an introduction. I will use "Hello Team" as the first topic title as instructed.
- Granular Topic Titles: I will aim for specific and quantified topic titles, avoiding vague titles as per the "Bad examples". I'll focus on what is being discussed, where, who is involved, and any quantifiable information (numbers, locations, etc.).
- "Wrap up" Topic (Last ID): The end of the transcript is Jonathan signing off. I will use "Wrap up" for the last topic.
- Numbering and XML: I will assign sequential IDs starting from 1 and enclose each topic title in `
` tags.
- TASK 3 (Topic Timestamps):
- Match to Topics: For each topic identified in TASK 2, I will find the start and end timestamps from the transcript.
- Timestamp Format: Use MM:SS or HH:MM:SS format as appropriate.
- Multiple Timeframes (if needed): In this transcript, topics appear to be contiguous, so I expect single timeframes for each topic. If a topic were revisited later, I'd note the additional timeframe separated by commas.
- XML Output: Wrap timestamps in `
` tags, ensuring the `id` matches the corresponding ` `. Crucially, ensure I use `
` and not ` ` for the timestamps as highlighted in the instructions.
- TASK 4 (Topic Summaries):
- Summarise Each Topic: For each topic, I will write a concise summary of the key points. I will focus on:
- Main events/news.
- Jonathan's analysis and opinions.
- Sources mentioned (and correct spellings e.g., Andrew Perpetua, Artur Rehi).
- Humour and Jonathan's personality where appropriate.
- Bullet Points/Markdown: Use bullet points for clarity and bold/italics sparingly for emphasis.
- Correct Spellings & EN-GB: Pay close attention to correct spellings, especially Ukrainian place names (Kyiv, Odesa), and ensure British English is used.
- XML Output: Wrap each summary in `` tags, with matching `id` attributes.
- TASK 5 (Quote):
- Identify a Quote: Read through the transcript again, looking for a quote that is significant, thought-provoking, or humorous, and makes sense out of context.
- Conciseness and Clarity: Choose a quote that is relatively short and impactful.
- Correct Punctuation/Spelling: Ensure the quote is correctly punctuated and spelled, removing hesitations.
- XML Output: Wrap the chosen quote in `
` tags.
- TASK 6 (Queries):
- Review and Reflect: After completing tasks 1-5, I will review my work and identify any points of confusion or uncertainty.
- Honesty is Key: If something is unclear, it's better to ask than to guess incorrectly.
- If Clear: If I understood everything, I will explicitly state "Everything understood".
- XML Output: Wrap any queries or the "Everything understood" statement in `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` tags.
- Final Review & XML Output: Before submitting, I will double-check:
- XML Structure: Ensure the XML is correctly formatted and nested.
- Tag Matching: Verify every opening tag has a corresponding closing tag and that the tags are correctly paired (e.g., `
` and ` `, not ``). This is critical according to the instructions. - ID Attributes: Confirm that the `id` attributes in `
`, `
`, and ` ` tags match for each topic. - British English & Ukrainian Spellings: Re-read summaries and quote to ensure correct language and spellings.
- Completeness: Check that all tasks are addressed and all required XML tags are present.