Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"This is where you have the tension between the military-industrial complex and return on investments over bringing an end to a war where people are dying."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and mentions he'll be producing a "little bit" of content today, including a live stream with Daniela from Toczny and German Aid to Ukraine.

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US Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 00:40-08:24⏩
Jonathan discusses how European leaders are appealing to outgoing US president Biden to continue funding the Ukraine war effort. Jonathan questions Trump's commitment to Ukraine and anticipates a potential new funding request to Congress within two months, before Trump takes office. Jonathan analyses the two options open to Europe if Trump withdraws support for Ukraine: force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, or continue to support Ukraine without the help of the US. He voices concerns that the latter option could damage the relationship between the US and NATO but speculates that a Trump administration will be less supportive of Ukraine given the potential appointments of Hegsef to the DOD, Tosia Gellard to the DNI along with others less supportive of Ukraine. Jonathan analyses the risks associated with forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table, arguing that this would likely benefit Russia unless Ukraine was in a position to negotiate from a position of strength, perhaps as a result of Russia's economic collapse. However, Jonathan acknowledges the complexities of the situation, highlighting that Ukraine is struggling to maintain sufficient personnel, while Russia, despite significant equipment losses, is still able to launch offensives. Jonathan discusses the Biden administration's plans to send weekly aid packages to Ukraine to use the remaining $7.1 billion in aid before Biden leaves office. Jonathan speculates on whether a Trump administration would or could halt these deliveries and concludes that they wouldn't want to given the economic impact and contractual commitments with US companies. He notes that the US has already tripled its pre-war production of 155mm shells to 50,000 per month and aims to reach 100,000 per month by next year, a positive development mirrored by increased EU artillery production. Jonathan questions what would happen to the increased production capacity should a peace deal be agreed, and whether investment decisions would be impacted. He highlights the competing priorities of the military industrial complex and the moral imperative to end the conflict.

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Electronic Warfare

🎦 08:24-10:06⏩
Jonathan talks about the importance of Electronic Warfare and highlights comments from Dmitry Shymkiv (co-owner of Aerodrone), who said that most of the weapons Ukraine receives from allies aren't adequately protected against Russian electronic warfare equipment, rendering them potentially "useless". Jonathan infers that this applies to any equipment reliant on GPS or guidance systems, and suggests that the West needs to prioritise making their weapons systems resilient to electronic warfare, especially considering its effective use in Ukraine against Russian munitions, such as the Shahed drones.

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EU Financial Aid for Ukraine

🎦 10:06-10:13⏩
Jonathan reports that the European Commission has allocated €4.1 billion to Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility Program, confirmed by Ursula von der Leyen.

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Ukraine receives $1bn from IMF

🎦 10:13-10:25⏩
Jonathan highlights two significant financial boosts for Ukraine, totalling $5 billion. The first is the €4.1 billion from the EU, and the second is $1 billion from the International Monetary Fund, according to Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmihal.

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EU approves joint defence procurement

🎦 10:25-16:09⏩
Jonathan discusses the EU's historic decision to fund joint defence procurement for the first time. The initial focus is on five cross-border projects worth €300 million. Jonathan highlights the benefits of closer collaboration, citing examples like the joint special forces operations between Belgium and the Netherlands and increased cooperation between Nordic air forces, allowing for specialisation and maximising resources. This initiative, implemented through the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Instrument (EDIRPA), focuses on ammunition, armoured vehicles, and air and missile defence systems. Jonathan explains that by combining orders for defence products, member states can benefit from economies of scale, reducing costs and increasing efficiency. This joint procurement approach also promotes interoperability, ensuring that different units can work together seamlessly, a key principle within NATO. He predicts this shift will see the EU becoming increasingly self-reliant on defence, potentially impacting the US arms industry. Jonathan provides additional details about the specific areas of procurement, such as Mistral very short-range air defence systems. He emphasises how a significant portion of these procured defence products, including air and missile defence systems and ammunition, will be provided to Ukraine, enhancing its defence capabilities in the face of Russian aggression.

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UK Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 16:09-18:19⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the UK's contribution to Ukraine's defence, citing an example provided by Daniela from German Aid to Ukraine, who has done extensive research on the topic. Jonathan reveals that BAE Systems, a leading British defence firm, is constructing a new artillery factory in Sheffield. This multi-million pound project, creating 50 specialised jobs, is a direct response to the war in Ukraine and will utilise British steel in its production of gun barrels. This investment is not only significant for supporting Ukraine's war effort but will also have positive ripple effects on the UK economy, particularly the steel industry and associated supply chains.

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Poland to send MiG-29s to Ukraine?

🎦 18:19-19:46⏩
Jonathan discusses Poland's willingness to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, contingent on NATO allies deploying Western fighter jets to Polish bases. While acknowledging that MiG-29s are not the most advanced aircraft, Jonathan recognises their potential value in countering Russian missiles and drones. He believes that receiving the Polish MiG-29s would be beneficial for Ukraine, as it would bolster their air capabilities. Jonathan highlights that more modern aircraft such as Mirages and F-series jets would be preferable, but the Polish MiG-29s would still provide a valuable boost to Ukraine's air power.

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Germany Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 19:46-20:40⏩
Jonathan revisits Germany's stance on military aid to Ukraine, highlighting Chancellor Scholz's controversial comments in which he presented himself as a "chancellor of peace" opposed to escalating the conflict. Scholz reiterated his stance against providing Taurus missiles to Ukraine, a move perceived as weak by many. Despite this, Germany continues to provide military assistance to Ukraine, with Zelensky confirming the delivery of the sixth planned RST air defence system by the end of the year. Jonathan notes that during a conversation between Scholz and Zelensky, the two leaders discussed additional air defence systems and support for the following year, further demonstrating Germany's commitment to assisting Ukraine's defence.

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Israel Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 20:40-22:37⏩
Jonathan reveals that Israel is providing Ukraine with an early warning system in the final stages of implementation. This system will offer precise predictions of incoming airborne threats, giving people valuable time to seek cover. Jonathan clarifies that while this system might share some similarities with Israel's Iron Dome, it's crucial to understand that the Iron Dome is specifically designed for Israel's unique geographical context and threat landscape. Jonathan argues that directly comparing the two situations is inaccurate, stating that applying the Iron Dome concept to a country as large as Ukraine presents significant challenges. He suggests that while the Iron Dome could be effective for protecting a specific area like Kyiv, a different approach is needed for Ukraine's overall air defence strategy. Despite this, Jonathan believes that Israel's expertise and technology can still be beneficial to Ukraine, even if it doesn't involve a direct transfer of the Iron Dome system itself.

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Czech Republic Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 22:37-22:57⏩
Jonathan highlights a significant donation from STV Group, a leading Czech defence company, to the Ukrainian armed forces. The company has donated RPG-7 anti-tank grenade launchers worth €765,000. Jonathan emphasises the usefulness of such a contribution from a Czech arms supplier.

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Germany Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 22:57-23:59⏩
Jonathan discusses further details about Germany's ongoing military aid to Ukraine, drawing on information from German Aid to Ukraine. He notes that during a visit from Luxembourg's Minister of Defence, German Defence Minister Pistorius announced contributions to the Capability Coalition IT project, including SAP licences worth €82 million and radio equipment valued at €75 million. Jonathan emphasises Germany's commitment to supporting Ukraine, especially given its current economic challenges. He acknowledges the criticisms surrounding Germany's stance on Taurus missiles and Scholz's rhetoric but argues that Germany's contributions have been essential, stating that Ukraine would be in dire straits without them.

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New Technology for Ukraine

🎦 23:59-25:25⏩
Jonathan discusses a range of new technologies being deployed in the conflict. He reports that the Ukrainian armed forces will be equipped with a new remote-controlled Pernak module, fitted with a 7.62mm machine gun and operated via FPV goggles and remote control. He notes that it also includes a control system, battery and camera. He then compares this and other technologies such as UGVs, UAVs, USVs and artificial intelligence being used in modern warfare to the 1986 James Cameron film Aliens.

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Ukraine Develops Heavy Drone Bomber with Fibre Optic Cabling

🎦 25:25-26:58⏩
Jonathan talks about a new Ukrainian heavy drone bomber that utilises fibre optic signal transmission, providing a direct and secure connection between the operator and the drone. Jonathan explains that while Russian drones also use fibre optic spools, their range is limited to 5–10km. He praises the Ukrainian development, as the fibre optic connection makes it highly resilient to electronic warfare, ensuring that it can only be brought down by conventional means. He notes that Russia already employs similar technology, but not with drones of this size, and speculates that this Ukrainian innovation is a response to the earlier adoption of the technology by Russia. Jonathan points out that this hexacopter drone, being a heavy drone bomber, will be a significant asset for Ukraine due to its resilience against electronic warfare.

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Japan Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 26:58-30:25⏩
Jonathan discusses Japan's contributions to Ukraine, noting that they have supplied a third of Ukraine's de-mining equipment, totalling 200 units. In addition, Japan has provided 26 mobile forensic labs and 12 ANDE DNA labs, all deployed in frontline areas. Jonathan emphasises the importance of this support, stating that Japan has taken a lead in de-mining and DNA analysis, allowing other nations to focus on other areas like supplying tanks. Jonathan highlights Japan's unique position, given its constitutionally defensive armed forces and restrictions on arms exports, comparing it to Switzerland. He notes that despite these limitations, Japan has stepped up to provide crucial assistance to Ukraine, primarily focusing on non-lethal aid, such as de-mining equipment. Jonathan suggests that Japan is gradually adapting its defence strategy, acknowledging the changing geopolitical landscape and the threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific.

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French Military Aid for Ukraine

🎦 30:25-32:15⏩
Jonathan talks about France's training of a Ukrainian Combined Arms Brigade, known as the Anne of Kiev Brigade. This brigade, consisting of 2,500–4,500 personnel, has completed its training in France and will be equipped with French equipment, including VAB armoured personnel carriers. Jonathan explains that France has agreed to provide Ukraine with equipment that is being phased out of French service, such as the VAB. There is speculation surrounding the potential inclusion of Leclerc tanks, but this remains uncertain.

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Ukraine Nuclear Weapons

🎦 32:15-34:08⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent article in The Times alleging that Ukraine is just months away from developing nuclear weapons. He mentions that the idea of Ukraine acquiring nuclear weapons has been a topic of discussion, with arguments being made that doing so might have deterred the Russian invasion. He references the Budapest Memorandum, under which Ukraine relinquished its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the UK, US, and Russia – guarantees that Russia ultimately violated. Jonathan highlights Ukraine's foreign ministry's denial of the report, emphasising their commitment to non-proliferation agreements. However, he points out that such denials could be expected regardless of whether the allegations are true. Jonathan concludes that it is impossible to know for certain what is happening.

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Russia Military Aid from North Korea

🎦 34:08-35:55⏩
Jonathan discusses evidence suggesting that Russia is receiving military equipment, including the 170mm Koksan self-propelled artillery system (either the M1978 or the later M1989 variant), from North Korea. He expresses concern over this development, stating that access to North Korean military resources, including potentially 100,000 troops and artillery pieces, could enable Russia to prolong the war.

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Russia Military aid shortages

🎦 35:55-38:19⏩
Jonathan highlights Russia's equipment shortages, reporting that Russian film studio Mosfilm has supplied the Russian army with 28 T-55 tanks, 8 PT-76 tanks and other equipment from its warehouses. He questions why a film studio would be providing equipment and financial assistance to the Russian military unless the situation were dire. Jonathan speculates that this points to Russia's desperation and dwindling resources, especially given that these are outdated T-55 tanks from the 1950s. He sees this as further evidence suggesting that Russia is struggling to sustain its war effort. The fact this was announced to Putin during a meeting at the Kremlin, suggests that things are desperate.

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North Korea Increases Drone Production

🎦 38:19-38:46⏩
Jonathan reports that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un has ordered an increase in suicide drone production amidst strengthening military ties with Russia. Jonathan speculates whether this increase in drone production is a result of Russia seeking to bolster its drone capabilities using North Korean manufacturing, or for North Korea's own military requirements.

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Wrap up

🎦 38:46-38:57⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and acknowledges that the video was longer than usual due to the amount of information.

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