Ukraine Conflict (20231111): Kherson Mini Analysis

"Ukrainian forces have now firm control over positions reaching from Antonivsky Bridge. That's a road bridge to the railway bridge and then east of that."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an update and analysis on the situation in the Kherson region, as it has been one year since the city was liberated in the Kherson counter-offensive. He will expand on the developments in the Dnipro River area over the last few days.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian Gains Southwest of Kherson

• Ukrainians have made gains southwest of Kherson, pushing Russians back and taking positions on the northern datches of Potemkin Island and north of Bila Rudove, northwest of Holopristan.
• This area is along the river delta, stretching alongside part of it.
• Haimas struck a column of Russian trucks in Hladivka, damaging or destroying 8 out of 11 and causing Russian casualties. These trucks were likely supporting the defense of the area where Ukrainians are making gains.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Reports and Ukrainian Advantages

• Russian sources report heavy fighting and admit to having weak counter-battery fire and issues with Ukrainian drones flying over their positions "as if they were at home". Russian drones are shot down quickly over Ukrainian-controlled territory.
• Ukrainians have a competitive advantage in using various elements like drone warfare, counter-drone activity, electronic warfare, and artillery (including HIMARS) together effectively.

Return to top⤴️

Advances Near Krynky

• Ukrainians are expanding their control of the territory near Krynky.
• No Reports claims Ukrainian Marines are expanding their zone of control, which will soon be evident in videos.
• Some footage shows Ukrainians hitting Russian vehicles in the forest area close to Krynky, but the timing is unclear and it may have occurred before Ukrainians pushed further south.

Return to top⤴️

Analysis and Outlook

• Positive outlooks suggest Russia failed to shift enough forces earlier to cut off Ukrainian lodgements, and Ukrainians can now flood the zone with heavier units.
• An analysis from Alexander X states Ukrainian forces have expanded control over considerable areas on the Russian-occupied bank of the river since July. Several hundred Ukrainian troops are holding and consolidating positions.
• Ukrainian positions reach from Antonivsky road bridge to the railway bridge and eastward. They are also conducting assaults through Poima, Pishkinivka, and Pidstepny, establishing positions between Pidstepny and Kazachy Lahiri.
• The Oleschki-Novokokovka road has been cut in two places by Ukrainian assaults.
• The Oleshki Sands desert acts as a shield against Russian counter-attacks, complicating their defense. Russian forces in the area are under heavy fire from drone-directed HIMARS strikes.
• Russian forces in Kherson are highly depleted and likely lack sufficient reserves to impede Ukrainian advances. Reinforcement from other sectors is unlikely due to Russian assaults in Avdiivka and defense of Zaporizhia.
• Minefields in the area were swept away by the flood triggered by destroying the Novokokovka dam, simplifying Ukrainian assaults.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

Jonathan believes this will be a fascinating area to watch in terms of what Ukrainians can achieve. Their advantage in electronic warfare and drone capability impacts artillery, counter-battery fire, and HIMARS strikes, allowing them to bring these elements together for a meaningful bridgehead along the river. However, the Russians will have to make difficult choices, and Ukraine may not have a large enough force to take full advantage if Russia pulls reserves from elsewhere. The Oleshki Sands could serve as a useful natural barrier for Ukrainian attacks.

Return to top⤴️