Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"There is something that no one in the world can ignore. How easily these beasts kill."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologises for the slightly later video today as he was visited by Jehovah's Witnesses which delayed him. He jokes that as an atheist philosopher and author of books on religion, it was like all his Christmases came at once and he moved faster than he has in the last 4 years due to his primary progressive multiple sclerosis to debate with them.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Losses for Russian Forces
The reported Ukrainian losses for Russian forces for the previous day were:
- 730 troops (an uptick, possibly indicating the front line is heating up again)
- 2 tanks, 5 APCs, 5 artillery systems (consistently at this level, showing a concerted Ukrainian effort at counter-battery work)
- 3 special equipment (e.g. radar systems, counter-battery radars)
- 10 vehicles/fuel tanks
- 2 drones
Jonathan notes that the artillery system number shows the Ukrainians are putting in an effort to take out Russian artillery installations.
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Wagner PMC Losses
According to research by the BBC Russian Service and independent Russian media outlet Meduza:
- At least 995 Wagner fighters are buried across 7 cemeteries in Russia and temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories
This is a bare minimum conservative number and the actual deaths will be higher. It gives an indication of the scale of Wagner losses.
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Wagner Founder Progozhin Hands Over Flanks to Russian Army
Wagner Group founder Progozhin says in a video that he has handed the right and left flanks (assumed to be north and south of Bakhmut) to the regular Russian army. This confirms ISW reports that Russian VDV airborne troops, Spetsnaz and DPR forces are appearing in the Bakhmut area, indicating Wagner are struggling to recruit and regenerate lost forces. Progozhin is also said to be cooperating with the political party "A Just Russia for Truth" to advance his political aspirations.
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Russian Strikes
- Russians have been striking the usual places like Marhanets and Nikopol north of the Dnipro reservoir and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
- An airstrike was launched on an enterprise in the city of Beryslav, northwest of Kherson along the Dnipro. Jonathan presumes this used adapted dumb munitions with guidance and fins for greater range.
- Kherson itself has also been hit by shelling over the last day.
Fuel Storage Site Fire in Russia
A fuel storage site in Russia's Saratov region burned down. Jonathan notes this could indicate renewed partisan activity within Russia or a Ukrainian drone strike. Fuel depots are important for Russia to commit to the war and provide their forces with fuel.
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Beheading of Ukrainian POW by Russian Forces
A video has emerged showing the brutal beheading of a captured Ukrainian soldier by Russian forces. The soldier can be heard screaming in pain and begging not to be killed. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called it "absurd that Russia, which is worse than ISIS, is presiding over the UN Security Council" and demanded Russia be expelled from Ukraine and the UN and held accountable. CNN has reported the video indicates the execution was carried out recently by Wagner Group mercenaries. Jonathan shares a personal rant from a Russian translator, Dimitri, expressing his anger and frustration. He argues if someone is still not aware that Russia is a "savage state with lots of f*ed in the head Nazi people and their quiet supporters" and only a small fraction are "genuinely adequate", then this video should make it clear. He asks how many more videos like this need to surface before Ukraine is provided with everything it needs to stop this "antichrist". The Ukrainian Security Services have launched a pre-trial investigation into the execution. President Zelenskyy also made a statement condemning the "beasts" that committed this war crime and vowing they will face legal responsibility and defeat.
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Intelligence Leaks
The US intelligence leaks are continuing to have wide-ranging effects:
- An article in The Economist by Shashank Joshi argues the leaks are very serious, damaging and come at a bad time for Ukraine. Most experts and officials he spoke to suggest the breach is authentic.
- The documents show the number of NATO special forces operating in Ukraine. The UK apparently has the largest contingent with 50, followed by Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1). Jonathan notes he has previously said allied special forces are almost certainly on the ground in Ukraine, likely in training/advisory roles and doing "funky stuff" behind the lines, but not on the front line due to the huge risk if they are lost or captured. He argues if Russia tries to use this as an escalation, the West should respond by giving Ukraine everything it needs.
- A list has allegedly been shared on Twitter showing the names of US CIA agents in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. If genuine, this would be very damaging.
- Serbia has had to deny it has been giving weapons to Ukraine as the leaks suggest. Their Defence Minister claims the leaks are designed to destabilise Serbia. However, Jonathan notes the leaks seem to be accurate so far so Serbia will likely have to keep denying to maintain plausible deniability, even though Russia will know the truth.
Russian Defences in Zaporizhzhia
A UK intelligence update says over recent weeks Russia has continued to develop extensive linear defences in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine:
- Russia has completed 3 zones of defensive lines across approximately 120km
- A frontline of forward positions, then 2 further zones 10-20km behind each other
- These will be formidable obstacles that provide a real challenge for Ukrainian forces
- This explains why leaked US assessments are less positive about the prospects for the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive compared to the rapid advances made in Kharkiv
- The utility of these defences depends on them being properly supported by artillery and personnel
- It remains unclear if Russia's Southern Group of Forces can currently muster those resources
Military Aid to Ukraine
- The Polish PM visited Kamala Harris in the US and announced the US will be giving Ukraine more Abrams tanks and Bradley IFVs. Jonathan argues the US has the capacity to give large amounts of equipment (e.g. thousands of Bradleys, Abrams, Humvees, etc.) that could be a real game-changer and they should "just do it" to get the war finished. He recommends a video by Perun explaining that the US has such a large military budget because it "exports security" to allies and gets a lot back in return.
Other aid developments:
- The US is sending ATACMS long-range missiles to Morocco, despite claiming it doesn't have enough to send to Ukraine
- The US and South Korea have agreed a deal for the US to buy 500,000 155mm artillery shells from South Korea to backfill stocks sent to Ukraine
- Pakistan will send 230 containers of weaponry to Ukraine this month, including 10,000 Grad rockets. Pakistan is becoming an important source of Soviet-era munitions.
- Canada announced a new aid package including 21,000 assault rifles, 38 machine guns and over 2.5 million rounds of ammunition
- Japan is providing humanitarian aid and excavators to the city of Irpin
- Finland has given Ukraine an unknown number of 112 RSYK ATGM launchers
Jonathan notes many countries have likely given Ukraine much more equipment than has been publicly announced.
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Geopolitics
- In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump claims he told Putin "Ukraine is not part of Russia when I'm President". Jonathan criticises Trump's choice of words that Putin "loved Ukraine", arguing Putin sees Ukraine as a utility, not something he loves. Invading a country and trying to eradicate its culture is not love. However, he acknowledges Trump is at least now positioning himself as against Putin, even if he misunderstands Putin's view of Ukraine.
- A Kiev shopping centre previously owned by a Russian oligarch linked to pipeline construction has been seized by the Ukrainian state under an anti-corruption court decision. Jonathan argues this is a positive development as Ukraine looks to claw back assets from Russian influence. State ownership of enterprises like this could provide a valuable income stream for the government.
- French company Pernod Ricard, owner of Absolut Vodka, has allegedly resumed exports to Russia according to a Swedish newspaper. Jonathan laments that for many Western companies, money trumps morality when answering to shareholders.
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching this Ukraine war news update. He encourages them to like, subscribe, share and check out his other videos coming later with frontline updates and an extra in-depth piece.
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