Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Video on Youtube
Table of Contents 📖
"They were unable to sustain those losses and keep doing the same thing....It's not that they can't sustain keeping on taking land. They're able to take land, but it comes at increasing costs to the Russians, that they are just unable to sustain these offensives all over the place and defending Kursk, whilst keeping their forces in broadly the same manner that they started with."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:50⏩
Jonathan opens the video discussing the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, which are strikingly high at 1,780 - potentially the third or fourth highest single-day loss. This includes eight tanks, 22 troop-carrying vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 60 vehicles and fuel tanks, and eight pieces of special equipment.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Discussion on Sustainability of Russian Losses
🎦 00:50-05:13⏩
Jonathan recommends a 'must-see' video from Turchy, which he believes offers compelling visual evidence supporting the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian casualty figures. He addresses skepticism from pro-Russian commentators questioning the accuracy of these figures, emphasizing that trends and patterns observed over time, combined with open-source intelligence, strongly suggest their validity. Jonathan explains the concept of 'unsustainable losses', arguing that it's not about Russia's ability to capture territory but their capacity to maintain their initial approach to warfare given the high attrition rate. He cites examples such as:
- Increasing reliance on conscripts, convicts, and mercenaries due to the depletion of well-trained, professional soldiers.
- Deployment of outdated equipment brought out from deep storage, indicating a shortage of modern military hardware.
- Improvisation of combat vehicles (e.g., MTLBs with anti-submarine launchers)
- Disbanding of specialist units, such as the CRBM (chemical, radiological, and nuclear defence), with remaining personnel redeployed as infantry, indicating severe manpower shortages.
Jonathan highlights that these changes in Russian military behaviour demonstrate the unsustainable nature of their losses.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Review
🎦 05:13-08:19⏩
Jonathan examines Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed loss list, noting a consistent 2:1 ratio favoring Ukraine in both personnel and combat asset losses. Ukrainian Losses:
- One T-72 tank
- Eight Western APCs
- One AFV
- Artillery pieces
Russian Losses:
- Engineering Vehicles
- Old Howitzers
- Nondescript Tanks (unidentified models)
- 20 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (BMP-2s, BMP-3s, and BTR-82s) - mostly abandoned, destroyed, or irretrievably lost.
- ATVs
- Buggies
- Golf Carts
- Quads
- Motorcycles
Jonathan emphasizes the suboptimal mechanization of Russian forces, evidenced by the use of these improvised vehicles. He highlights that over the past 100 days, Perpetua's team has documented:
- 9,339 confirmed Russian personnel killed in action (an average of 93 per day)
- 140 destroyed artillery systems
- 361 destroyed tanks
- 745 destroyed infantry fighting vehicles
- 315 destroyed APCs
- 23 destroyed air defence systems
- 14 destroyed radars
- 37 pieces of destroyed engineering equipment
- 322 destroyed trucks
- 1,660 destroyed transport vehicles
Jonathan points out that these figures are likely underestimates as they rely on visual confirmation from satellite imagery and videos. He cites an estimation model suggesting that the true death toll could be between 14,500 and 15,000, considering factors like unseen losses and crew members per vehicle.
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Russian Deployment of Specialist Troops and False Reporting
🎦 08:19-12:21⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from ChrisO, citing a Russian officer and former Wagner commander Andrei Medvedev, about the deployment of specialist troops in 'bloody meat assaults'. This deployment stems from pressure on commanders to produce positive results, leading to false reports of captured areas still under Ukrainian control. Medvedev's account highlights the dangers of this practice, as troops without proper training or equipment are sent into ill-conceived assaults to maintain the facade of success, resulting in even greater casualties. Jonathan connects this with the previously discussed disbanding of specialist units, suggesting that the urgency to replace lost assault troops forces the Russian military to utilize personnel without appropriate specializations for specific combat roles, further exacerbating losses.
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November Casualties and Analysis of Russian Losses
🎦 12:21-13:48⏩
Jonathan highlights another month of record losses for Russia, with over $3 billion in equipment lost and nearly 46,000 casualties in November alone. He displays a chart illustrating the escalating Russian personnel losses since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, underlining the severity of the situation. He briefly mentions the Turchy video, emphasizing the need for viewers to watch it.
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Analysis of Russian Losses in Kursk with Gesh Lutert
🎦 13:48-22:34⏩
Jonathan analyzes the situation in Kursk with Gesh Lutert from Turchy's team. They discuss the challenges of tracking Russian troop movements and losses, acknowledging that not all units have a social media presence, which makes tracking difficult. Open source intelligence, however, is able to glean insights from social media posts from soldiers and their families. Key insights from their conversation include:
- Significant Losses for the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade: This brigade, previously deployed in Kherson, is experiencing heavy casualties in Kursk.
- Replenishing Depleted Units: To compensate for losses, Russia is drafting soldiers from other units, including those in training, and integrating them into the 810th.
- Masking the True Impact: This practice of replenishing existing units with soldiers from other units and training grounds masks the full extent of the losses in Kursk.
- Underestimation of Casualties: Jonathan believes that thousands of Russian soldiers have been lost in the Kursk offensives.
Gesh notes that drones, particularly FPV drones, are likely responsible for a significant number of casualties, though the exact cause of death is difficult to ascertain due to the limited information available.
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Frontline Reports: Russian Losses and Territorial Gains
🎦 22:34-23:14⏩
Jonathan cites a frontline report from Euromaidan Press, highlighting devastating Russian losses in Tolstoy, Luhansk, in the Kursk Oblast. Despite these losses, he acknowledges that Ukrainian forces are being forced to concede territory. Footage shows six to 10 Russian armored vehicles per assault wave being destroyed by Ukrainian forces.
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Strikes and Explosions: Tokmak and Overnight Drone Attacks
🎦 23:14-24:07⏩
Jonathan reports an explosion in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly resulting from a Ukrainian strike. While initial reports suggest a garage explosion, he notes that previous incidents indicate potential strikes on garages housing military equipment. He references footage showing a large explosion and fire at a gas station in Tokmak, suggesting the destruction of Russian military assets.
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Syrian Rebels Capture Russian-Made Fighter Jets
🎦 24:07-24:07⏩
Jonathan shares news of Syrian rebels capturing seven MiG-23 fighter jets from the Assad regime, humorously suggesting they be sent to Ukraine.
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Drone Attacks on Turnip Hill and North Korean Missile Transfers
🎦 24:07-25:45⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight drone attacks on Turnip Hill in western Ukraine. Russia launched 28 drones, with 22 shot down, one neutralized by electronic warfare, one veering into Belarus, and one into Russian-occupied Ukraine. This leaves three drones unaccounted for, possibly striking Chernobyl. He then highlights the transfer of at least 60 North Korean missiles to Russia. He criticizes the lack of international concern compared to the outcry over Ukraine's use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles against targets within Russia. Jonathan points out the irony of the situation, emphasizing that Russia has fired significantly more missiles into Ukraine and that the North Korean missiles, with their outdated technology, are inherently inaccurate and therefore even more dangerous to civilians.
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Ukrainian Missile Strikes on Crimea and Russian Air Defences
🎦 25:45-27:43⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian missile strikes deep inside occupied Crimea have caused panic amongst the Russian population. He emphasizes the strategic importance of these strikes, explaining that by targeting multiple locations, Ukraine forces Russia to stretch its air defense systems thin. He employs his recurring 'blanket analogy', stating that Russia, despite its size, has a finite number of air defense systems. By forcing Russia to constantly reposition these assets, Ukraine keeps them off-balance and creates vulnerabilities.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensive Across the Oskil River
🎦 27:43-28:40⏩
Jonathan discusses a video released by Ukrainian Defense Intelligence purporting to show Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian troops across the Oskil River near Novomilinsk. While Russia had established a bridgehead in the area, Ukrainian artillery and drone units appear to have successfully repelled the advance, a positive development as Jonathan previously expressed concern about the situation there.
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Ukrainian Soldier's Perspective on Kursk and Trump's Inauguration
🎦 28:40-29:07⏩
Jonathan cites a BBC News report quoting a Ukrainian soldier who states that their primary objective in Kursk is to hold as much territory as possible until Trump's inauguration and the potential start of negotiations. This statement suggests a belief that the outcome of the US election could influence the course of the war.
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Dmitry Medvedev's Yacht Purchase and Nuclear Escalation Concerns
🎦 29:07-30:09⏩
Jonathan questions the likelihood of nuclear escalation by Russia, citing Dmitry Medvedev's recent purchase of a $4.4 million British-made luxury yacht. He argues that such an acquisition suggests that Medvedev is not anticipating a nuclear apocalypse and intends to enjoy his wealth in the future. Jonathan emphasizes that while the use of nuclear weapons is in no one's best interest, it is particularly counterproductive to Russia's objectives in Ukraine. He observes that both pro- and anti-Ukraine factions in the West seem overly concerned about the threat of nuclear escalation.
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Base.UA Evacuation and Drone Attack
🎦 30:09-33:07⏩
Jonathan commends the work of humanitarian organization Base.UA, with whom he has personal experience. He recounts a recent incident where a Base.UA evacuation van, carrying British volunteer Pierre, came under drone attack near the front lines. He expresses frustration over Ukrainians waiting until the last minute for evacuation, putting aid workers at risk. Despite being equipped with drone detection technology, the van was still hit, raising questions about the effectiveness of these systems. Jonathan expresses admiration for Anton, the head of Base.UA, and his team's bravery, hoping for their speedy recovery.
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Wrap up
🎦 33:07-33:46⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers and urging them to like, subscribe, and share his content. He sets a lighthearted goal of reaching 50,139 subscribers, playfully suggesting the 2nd of January as the target date for this arbitrary milestone.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Could you please clarify the meaning of "Turnip Hill"? Is this a known location or a nickname for a specific area in western Ukraine? Additionally, is "TOCMAC" a misspelling of "Tokmak" or a separate location?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is a complex and multi-faceted task that requires me to summarise nuanced information about the ongoing Ukraine war. Accuracy is crucial, as is respecting Jonathan's unique voice and the sensitivities surrounding the conflict. Here's how I will approach each task: Task 1: Extract title, date, and part Identify the date format (YYYYMMDD) and rearrange it to DD/MM/YYYY. Locate the part identifier (a letter following the date) or leave it empty if none exists. Remove the date and part from the title, ensuring a clean and concise output. Task 2: Identify and title topics I will listen to the video in its entirety, taking detailed notes of key subjects discussed. Break down the transcript into granular topics, focusing on specific events, regions, or themes. Use quantifiable metrics whenever possible (e.g., casualty figures, aid package amounts) Adhere to Ukrainian spellings for places and names to ensure respect and accuracy. Task 3: Determine topic timeframes Utilise my detailed notes from Task 2 to pinpoint the start and end times for each topic. Double-check for overlaps or gaps in the timestamps, ensuring the entire video is covered. Task 4: Summarise key points of each topic Refer to the designated timeframe for each topic and provide a concise yet informative summary. Incorporate Jonathan's insights, analysis, and opinions as these are highly valued by his audience. Maintain a neutral and objective tone when summarising factual information. Correct any spelling errors or inconsistencies in the transcript to ensure clarity. Task 5: Select a compelling quote Identify a quote that encapsulates a key theme, emotion, or insight from the video. Ensure the quote makes sense when read independently from the rest of the summary. Task 6: Highlight any queries or uncertainties Honestly report any aspects of the tasks or transcript that were unclear. Refrain from making assumptions and clearly state the need for clarification where necessary. By following these steps, I aim to produce a comprehensive and insightful summary that captures the essence of Jonathan's video for viewers short on time.
