Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Wagner Abroad, UA Brigades, & Crossing the Dnipro

"Whether that's exactly how concentrated they will they will you know get their troops I don't know but um certainly useful overview I think of the Ukrainian forces uh going forward and I I guess we'll see you know exactly what they've got in uh in the end of May"

Hello Team!

Jonathan gives a couple housekeeping notes:

• He may not be able to do videos tomorrow as he is giving a talk at a local secondary school
• His twin 12-year old boys have friends over so there may be background noise

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Wagner PMC's Global Influence

• Wagner PMC has received limited coverage of certain aspects of their far-reaching influence and security risks they pose globally
• Wagner's occupation of Soledar in Donetsk provided Russian media a success story to shift focus from army failures
• Wagner was granted exceptional rights to recruit criminals but measures have been taken recently to curb their internal influence
• Wagner's activities extend beyond Ukraine and Syria to Mali, Sudan, Libya, CAR and Burkina Faso
• Wagner exploits natural resources like gold and precious stones in Middle Eastern and African countries, generating billions in annual revenue
• UN experts received reports of executions, torture, rape and other atrocities committed by Malian forces and Wagner allies
• Sanctions and efforts to designate Wagner as a transnational criminal org are needed to mitigate security risks

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Prigozhin's Perspective

• Prigozhin says there are no good news for Russia from the Ramstein 11 summit decisions
• He believes the Ukrainian offensive won't start for 10 days due to the "Rasputitsa" (muddy season)
• Prigozhin acknowledges the West is training Ukrainian troops (up to 100K) and providing tanks, armoured vehicles, and support
• He says Russia must "anchor" itself defensively as the "jokes are over"

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Ukrainian Foothold Across Dnipro

• Ukrainians have a foothold over the Dnipro river in Kherson oblast but the geography makes it difficult to expand and supply
• The area is mostly wetlands and marshes unsuitable for sustaining large forces
• Russian forces no longer fully control the delta area but their presence has degraded over the past 6 months
• It's unclear if this foothold can develop into allowing further Ukrainian advances but it is still significant

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Ukrainian Combat Brigades

Thomas Theiner compares his list of known Ukrainian combat brigades with those currently at the front:

• Ukraine has 30 combat brigades, 6 artillery, 5 territorial defence, 4 national guard brigades in the rear (155K troops)
• Not all will take part in the offensive - some are guarding borders, some in reserve, some resting after Bakhmut
• The West is training/equipping at least 9 brigades, Ukraine training 3 more
• The spring offensive will likely consist of 20+ brigades (9 NATO trained, 3 Ukraine trained, 8 offensive guards)
• Artillery brigades have various Western-provided systems
• Ukraine can mass 50K troops for the offensive with 30-40K follow-up troops

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Captured Russian Equipment

• A Russian tank is shown stuck with soldiers eating pizza beside it
• A captured Russian Typhoon-K vehicle's tires are not inflated; the inside is full of beer bottles showing poor living conditions
• The vehicle's components appear to be imported, not Russian-made, showing their manufacturing difficulties
• A Ukrainian farmer has installed remote control on an old tractor, protected it with timber and BMP parts, to farm hazardous mined fields

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Wrap up

Jonathan notes he may not be able to do videos tomorrow but thanks viewers for their support.

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