Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Wagner Abroad, UA Brigades, & Crossing the Dnipro
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"Whether that's exactly how concentrated they will they will you know get their troops I don't know but um certainly useful overview I think of the Ukrainian forces uh going forward and I I guess we'll see you know exactly what they've got in uh in the end of May"
Hello Team!
Jonathan gives a couple housekeeping notes:
- He may not be able to do videos tomorrow as he is giving a talk at a local secondary school
- His twin 12-year old boys have friends over so there may be background noise
Wagner PMC's Global Influence
- Wagner PMC has received limited coverage of certain aspects of their far-reaching influence and security risks they pose globally
- Wagner's occupation of Soledar in Donetsk provided Russian media a success story to shift focus from army failures
- Wagner was granted exceptional rights to recruit criminals but measures have been taken recently to curb their internal influence
- Wagner's activities extend beyond Ukraine and Syria to Mali, Sudan, Libya, CAR and Burkina Faso
- Wagner exploits natural resources like gold and precious stones in Middle Eastern and African countries, generating billions in annual revenue
- UN experts received reports of executions, torture, rape and other atrocities committed by Malian forces and Wagner allies
- Sanctions and efforts to designate Wagner as a transnational criminal org are needed to mitigate security risks
Prigozhin's Perspective
- Prigozhin says there are no good news for Russia from the Ramstein 11 summit decisions
- He believes the Ukrainian offensive won't start for 10 days due to the "Rasputitsa" (muddy season)
- Prigozhin acknowledges the West is training Ukrainian troops (up to 100K) and providing tanks, armoured vehicles, and support
- He says Russia must "anchor" itself defensively as the "jokes are over"
Ukrainian Foothold Across Dnipro
- Ukrainians have a foothold over the Dnipro river in Kherson oblast but the geography makes it difficult to expand and supply
- The area is mostly wetlands and marshes unsuitable for sustaining large forces
- Russian forces no longer fully control the delta area but their presence has degraded over the past 6 months
- It's unclear if this foothold can develop into allowing further Ukrainian advances but it is still significant
Ukrainian Combat Brigades
Thomas Theiner compares his list of known Ukrainian combat brigades with those currently at the front:
- Ukraine has 30 combat brigades, 6 artillery, 5 territorial defence, 4 national guard brigades in the rear (155K troops)
- Not all will take part in the offensive - some are guarding borders, some in reserve, some resting after Bakhmut
- The West is training/equipping at least 9 brigades, Ukraine training 3 more
- The spring offensive will likely consist of 20+ brigades (9 NATO trained, 3 Ukraine trained, 8 offensive guards)
- Artillery brigades have various Western-provided systems
- Ukraine can mass 50K troops for the offensive with 30-40K follow-up troops
Captured Russian Equipment
- A Russian tank is shown stuck with soldiers eating pizza beside it
- A captured Russian Typhoon-K vehicle's tires are not inflated; the inside is full of beer bottles showing poor living conditions
- The vehicle's components appear to be imported, not Russian-made, showing their manufacturing difficulties
- A Ukrainian farmer has installed remote control on an old tractor, protected it with timber and BMP parts, to farm hazardous mined fields
Wrap up
Jonathan notes he may not be able to do videos tomorrow but thanks viewers for their support.
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