Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Just there's so much moral compromise in this world it it really frustrates me it's so freaking obvious"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update and announces an upcoming talk about the war in Ukraine on June 15th in the Andover area. He will be raising funds for drones. Jonathan encourages viewers to donate to drone support fundraising through the link in the description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:28-06:07⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting the large number of personnel lost (1,330). He notes the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones. Other significant losses include 11 tanks, 27 armoured personnel vehicles, and 40 artillery systems. Dell, who maintains a spreadsheet of Russian equipment losses, points out that today marks new seven-day rolling average highs for artillery (42 per day) and vehicles/fuel tanks (68 per day). Jonathan acknowledges potential inaccuracies in the reported figures but emphasises the upward trend, suggesting a shift in frontline dynamics.
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Ukrainian Losses in Kharkiv
🎦 04:17-04:40⏩
Jonathan acknowledges Ukrainian losses, particularly in the Kharkiv area, attributed to Russian medium-range drones, missiles targeting high-value assets, and Orlan drones conducting reconnaissance.
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Russian Equipment Losses (Analysis by Andrew Perpetua)
🎦 06:07-10:12⏩
Jonathan analyses data from Andrew Perpetua, which indicates recent Ukrainian losses exceeding Russian losses, particularly in Kharkiv due to Lancet strikes and missiles. The data also reveals Russian losses, including an ANTPQ-50 radar decoy, an ANTPQ-36 radar, and several Lancet drones. Evidence suggests increased Russian usage of Krasnopol precision-guided artillery shells. Ukrainian reliance on FPV drones is evident in the destruction of numerous Russian trucks and civilian vehicles.
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Foreign Fighter Casualties
🎦 12:20-14:38⏩
Jonathan discusses an infographic from Ukraine Form revealing foreign fighter casualties. The US now surpasses Georgia with the highest number of fighters lost (56), followed by Georgia (55), Belarus (39), and Colombia (38). He ponders the reasons behind the high number of Colombian volunteers.
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Downed Russian Su-25
🎦 14:41-15:14⏩
Jonathan reports the downing of a Russian Su-25 in Donetsk, marking the fifth Russian aircraft shot down in May. He highlights the challenge posed by Russian aviation, particularly their use of FAB-500 guided bombs.
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Destruction of Russian S-400 Air Defence System
🎦 16:06-18:23⏩
An S-400 air defence system was destroyed by a US-supplied ATACMS missile in Mospyne, Donetsk. PS-01 reports finding M74 munitions (from the ATACMS) at the strike site. This successful attack demonstrates the effectiveness of ATACMS in neutralising Russian air defence systems. Sergey Bratchuk, speaker for the Ukrainian Volunteer Army South, highlights the ongoing efforts to degrade the Russian air defence umbrella over Crimea. He emphasises the vital role of partisan movements like Atesh in providing intelligence on the location of these systems.
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The Black Sea Fleet
🎦 18:42-20:46⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the status of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, referencing the recent sinking of the Cyclone corvette. Despite significant losses, particularly in the corvette class and landing ships, the fleet retains considerable capability. Jonathan expresses a desire to see further Ukrainian strikes on the fleet, ideally using ATACMS missiles against ships stationed in Sevastopol. He acknowledges the success of Ukrainian efforts in targeting the Black Sea Fleet, which has forced a large number of vessels to relocate from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk.
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Russian Destruction of Ukrainian MiG-29
🎦 20:47-22:21⏩
Jonathan reports on the Russian destruction of a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet at Dnipro International Airport using an unspecified munition. Two decommissioned Yak-40 regional jets were also hit in the attack. Video footage captured by a Russian Orlan drone reveals the aftermath. There is uncertainty about whether the MiG-29 was a previously damaged aircraft.
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Russian Orlan Drone Surveillance
🎦 21:33-22:55⏩
The fact that Russian Orlan drones can operate unhindered over Dnipro, a strategically important city in central Ukraine, raises concerns about Ukrainian air defence capabilities. The downing of the MiG-29 and the targeting of the decommissioned aircraft underscore the risks posed by these drones, which can provide valuable intelligence for more potent Russian weaponry. Jonathan suggests that while using expensive missiles to neutralise relatively cheap drones might seem disproportionate, it's a necessary trade-off. Eliminating these reconnaissance drones is crucial to protecting higher-value assets from subsequent attacks.
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Ukrainian Loss of MR18 Mobile 3D Radar
🎦 23:01-24:28⏩
In a significant loss for Ukraine, a rare MR18 mobile 3D surveillance radar, along with two accompanying components (potentially command and control units), was destroyed by a Russian Kh-38 missile. This marks the first documented loss of its kind for the Ukrainian forces. Introduced in 2017, the MR18 is a relatively new system with limited production numbers. Imagery of the radar is scarce, primarily limited to models showcased by Ukroboronprom, the Ukrainian defence conglomerate, and blurry satellite images.
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Fire at Train Station in Moscow
🎦 24:35-25:27⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire incident involving an electric train at Povorov station in the Moscow region, marking the third such incident in recent days. While the specific cause remains unknown, the possibility of sabotage is considered, although it could also be attributed to general mischief.
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Atesh Partisan Activity in Smolensk
🎦 25:27-26:00⏩
The Atesh partisan movement claims responsibility for the destruction of a telecommunication cabinet belonging to a communication tower utilised by the Russian 49th Anti-Aircraft Regiment in the Smolensk region. The cabinet, which plays a vital role in radar and communication infrastructure for Russian air defence operations, signifies a strategically important target. This act highlights the impact of partisan activities in disrupting Russian military operations.
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Missile & Drone Strikes
🎦 26:00-26:14⏩
Jonathan reports a lack of significant overnight news regarding drone or missile strikes into either Russia or Ukraine.
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Zelensky's Call for Defence Systems & Kharkiv Missile Strikes
🎦 26:14-28:35⏩
Zelensky stresses the urgent need for effective defence systems to counter Russia's guided aerial bombs, which he identifies as their primary tool of terror and military advancement. Jonathan concurs, advocating for the destruction of Russian aircraft at their airbases, a strategy that necessitates US authorisation for strikes within Russian territory and a substantial increase in Ukrainian drone and missile capabilities. He suggests overwhelming Russian airbases with drone swarms, particularly those used for launching guided glide bomb attacks. Jonathan expresses frustration and anger over Russia's relentless missile attacks on residential areas in Kharkiv, describing their tactics as an attempt to coerce the population into surrender. He questions the international community's reluctance to allow Ukraine to strike Russian missile positions in Belgorod.
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Downed Storm Shadow Missile
🎦 28:35-28:46⏩
Russians claim to have intercepted a Storm Shadow missile, releasing a video as evidence. Jonathan encourages viewers to analyse the footage, accessible via a link in the description.
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Arrest of Lieutenant General Vadim Anatolevich Shamarin
🎦 28:54-31:10⏩
Jonathan analyses the arrest of Lieutenant General Vadim Anatolevich Shamarin, a high-ranking figure in the Russian armed forces, on charges related to financial instruments. The timing of the arrest, following the US Congress's approval of aid for Ukraine, suggests a potential connection to internal power struggles within the Russian military and government. Jonathan suspects the charges are politically motivated, reflecting a broader purge within the Russian Ministry of Defence. He notes the potential long-term consequences of such purges, which could lead to a loss of expertise and experience.
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Timothy Snyder on Russian Genocidal Policy
🎦 31:10-32:22⏩
Jonathan highlights a tweet by Timothy Snyder, emphasising that Russia's conquest of Ukrainian territory is marked by the systematic murder of civilians and civic leaders, the establishment of torture chambers, and the deportation of children for assimilation. Ukrainians are left with no option but to resist, as surrender would mean succumbing to Russia's genocidal policies. He reacts to Oleksandr Matveichuk's statement that the war has a genocidal character, evidenced by Putin's denial of Ukrainian identity and the atrocities committed since 2014. The systematic nature of these crimes, including the forced re-education of Ukrainian children in Russian camps, draws condemnation from Jonathan. He expresses frustration over the lack of widespread international condemnation and the moral compromises made regarding Russia's actions.
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Crimean Bridge Protection
🎦 32:27-33:58⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's efforts to reinforce the Crimean Bridge with barriers to protect against Ukrainian naval drone attacks, noting that these measures are ineffective against ballistic missiles. He posits that missiles like the Storm Shadow, with its BROACH warhead designed for penetrating hardened targets, could inflict significant damage. However, he acknowledges arguments that the bridge's strategic importance has diminished due to the operational railway line established south of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. The new railway provides an alternative supply route and mitigates the impact of any potential disruption to the Crimean Bridge.
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Eagles Avoiding Warzones
🎦 33:58-35:50⏩
In a segment shared by JR, Jonathan discusses research revealing how wildlife, particularly eagles, are adapting their migratory patterns to avoid warzones in Ukraine. Scientists tracking the movements of steppe eagles observed significant changes in their flight paths since the conflict began. The eagles are not only avoiding areas with active fighting but also those with troop buildups, demonstrating their ability to sense danger zones. The study indicates that the war has significantly impacted the eagles' migration, forcing them to make longer flights and spend less time at stopover points, which are crucial for resting and feeding. These disruptions could have long-term consequences for their breeding processes.
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2014 Invasion of Ukraine
🎦 35:58-38:12⏩
Jonathan revisits the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the fallacy of the "organic uprising" narrative surrounding the emergence of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Luhansk People's Republic (LPR). He points out the absurdity of the rapid transition from civilian protests to a full-fledged military force equipped with tanks and heavy weaponry within a month. This, he argues, debunks the idea of a spontaneous, grassroots rebellion and exposes Russia's direct military involvement. He emphasises that Russia's actions in 2014 constituted an illegal invasion and a breach of international law, underscoring the importance of acknowledging the true nature of the conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:12-38:37⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers for their support, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He reminds viewers about his upcoming talk in June and encourages them to contact him via the email provided for more information.
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