Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I want to remind you of the clear and unequivocal statement made by the MOD yesterday where it was explicitly said that there will be a response."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan introduces the video which is the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 12th December 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 00:12-00:50⏩
Jonathan summarises the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses the previous day. As always, he provides the usual caveats that these figures should be treated with caution.
- 1,390 personnel lost - a high number. Recently it went up over 2,000 in one day. It's mainly been around 1,600-1,700 but this is still a phenomenally high number.
- 6 tanks lost - just below the daily average.
- 28 armoured personnel vehicles - above the daily average.
- 5 artillery systems - low. Jonathan has been wondering if the Russians are starting to run out of artillery as storage bases are getting lean in terms of self-propelled guns. There are still a lot of towed howitzers left. The low figure could be because cloud cover is stopping drones (artillery is further back from the contact line).
- 54 vehicles and fuel tanks - a fairly substantial number.
- 1 piece of special equipment.
Response to Sam Mearns' Comments about Andrew Perpetua's Loss Lists
🎦 00:51-10:54⏩
Jonathan addresses a comment from Sam Mearns criticising the previous day's Hits and Losses video and questioning the validity of Andrew Perpetua's data. Jonathan goes through the comment and addresses each point to explain how the losses are calculated and how conclusions are drawn. He credits Andrew Perpetua (member of Tochnyi), as well as other OSINT channels like Oryx and War Monitor.
- Claim: "The whole premise of the Russian war is that of attrition. That includes their own equipment and material too. They understand that armour has a job and is dispensable. So to solve that task, they are making enough of everything to keep going. But also create networks of repair teams all across the front that repair and fix destroyed armour and equipment. All these statistics are nonsense. Andrew Perpetua doesn't know what he's talking about."
- Response: Jonathan states that no one is saying that damaged vehicles aren't being repaired. Andrew's team has looked at the percentages of recovered vehicles. However, deep storage bases are being emptied, indicating that they are unable to repair and build new vehicles to replace those being lost. This is evidenced by the use of golf buggies, motorbikes, e-scooters, and tanks being converted into APCs.
- Claim: "Nearly all Russian armour is made in such a way that it's easier to reuse, transfer and bastardise. Even NATO know this. That's why all Soviet era armour was sent to Ukraine."
- Response: (Jonathan doesn't address this point directly but his previous responses cover this).
- Claim: "There's absolutely no third party corroboration or quality control in Andrew Perpetua's list."
- Response: Jonathan personally knows some of the people working with Andrew's team. They work hard to ensure data accuracy, and accuracy is in their DNA. They are working to implement AI to support their work.
- Claim: "There's been ample evidence to show that large amounts of armour is retrieved and worked on and eventually gets back into the theatre."
- Response: Jonathan reiterates that no one has ever said this is not the case.
- Claim: "The whole foundation of Russia's losses are based on these types of lists with a massive bias toward if a vehicle is destroyed, what is the max seat count? That's a definitive number of seats. It disregards that bias to make it look as bad as possible where the footage was edited to not show soldiers leaving the vehicles or the lack of bodies at all."
- Response: Andrew Perpetua's list counts actual people seen killed on video feeds. His loss lists of personnel are not guesswork. They are empirically 100% evidenced losses of human lives. Jonathan acknowledges that the Ukrainian General Staff's criteria for personnel losses are not known, but there is a process for units to provide video evidence. Jonathan has previously stated there is more guesswork in personnel numbers than vehicle numbers.
- Claim: "Avid non-biased people have access to a hell of a lot of footage per day on Twitter and Telegram plus other sources, many from the brigades themselves. There's a treasure trove of info people can get to better understand warfare. But we also get to know the trends, how footage shows one thing, but on the ground, a whole different reality."
- Response: Jonathan points out that this is exactly what Andrew Perpetua and his team do every day across multiple platforms.
- Claim: "As it stands now, Russia has lost, according to the MOD, 750,000 dead and wounded. That's also POWs and deserted. That's over a thousand a day since December 2022. The visual references to support the MOD's numbers and the Android Perpetualist list makes around 10-20% of those claims in terms of manpower losses and around 60% of armour losses. So either most visual evidence is withheld by an army that makes its primary job as to dehumanise and promote the destruction of its enemy, or the numbers are off massively and are more in tune to other sources like Mediadzona."
- Response: Jonathan cites Mediazona figures (at least 85,050 as of the video) being in accordance with Ukrainian General Staff figures. These are the absolute minimum and don't include DPR losses. They include LPR and are only people who could be 100% proven dead on social media and through obituaries. If the true number is 150,000 dead, a 4:1 wounded ratio gives 750,000. If the ratio is worse for the Russians, it could mean 200,000 dead. Jonathan acknowledges there will be an element of estimation with personnel dead, but he looks at trends. He rarely talks about benchmark figures because the total number of personnel lost is the least important part of the loss list. He believes it's more accurate to look at tanks and materiel.
- Jonathan states that these criticisms have been debunked many times, but he needs to address them occasionally. He is frustrated by these comments.
Andrew Perpetua - Witnessing the Murder of Civilians
🎦 10:54-12:40⏩
Jonathan shares a post from Andrew Perpetua expressing his anger after witnessing the murder of several civilians by Russians. Andrew questions the silence of the self-proclaimed pro-life people and moral authorities, especially those who oppose aid to Ukraine. Jonathan agrees with Andrew's sentiment, calling it righteous anger.
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Depletion of Major Russian Storage Base
🎦 12:40-18:20⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by John P about a major Russian storage base being practically empty of equipment. This is another piece of evidence used to assess the accuracy of loss statistics. The 1,295th Central Tank Reserve Base is analysed, showing a significant drop in stored equipment since the war started. The base mostly stored older equipment like T-54s, T-55s, T-62s, BMP-1s, BRDM-2s, BTR-50s, and T-80s. The report indicates that the base is almost entirely depleted, with only a few pieces of equipment remaining. Some equipment was cannibalised, and the rest was moved to a scrap yard. Jonathan notes that while T-55s are rarely seen on the front line, they are being converted to BTS-4 armoured recovery vehicles. He concludes that this is a sign of a bigger problem for Russia, as more bases are being emptied. He references a trend of about 20 tanks and 20-30 BMPs being removed from each major storage base per month, which will accelerate until all that remains is cannibalised equipment.
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Ukrainian Marines Disable Russian Heavy Equipment
🎦 18:20-18:23⏩
Jonathan mentions that Marines of the 505th Battalion and the 37th Marine Brigade in the Karakovo direction disabled 40 pieces of Russian heavy equipment. This is presented as further visual evidence of Ukrainian successes.
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Large Warehouse Fire in Barnaul, Russia
🎦 18:24-18:42⏩
Jonathan shares a report from Tim White about a large warehouse fire in Barnaul, Russia. Firefighters were concerned about the fire spreading to neighbouring buildings. This is presented as another example of the "Russia on fire" phenomenon, where setting fire to something big can be an easy way to keep warm in the collapsing Russian economy, potentially for insurance payouts.
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Two Significant Deaths in Russia
🎦 18:42-20:08⏩
Jonathan reports on two significant deaths in Russia:
- Mikhail Shatsky: The top engineer behind the modernisation of the X-69 missiles and the development of new drones, was allegedly shot dead in Moscow. It is unclear if this was a Ukrainian operation.
- Alexei Davidov: A former deputy mayor of Krasnoyarsk, fell out of an 11th-floor window of the investigative committee building during interrogation. He was detained five days prior on suspicion of bribery. Jonathan notes this is another suspicious death by falling out of a window in Russia.
No Mass Drone Attacks on Ukraine in the Past Two Nights
🎦 20:08-21:38⏩
Jonathan reports that there have been no mass drone attacks on Ukraine in the past two nights. He speculates that the Russians either don't have the munitions or are stockpiling them. Either way, they don't have the ability to send waves and stockpile simultaneously. He wonders if this indicates a lack of munitions or a preparation for a huge wave, possibly including missiles, as both sides gear up towards January 20th.
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Speculation about Potential Ukrainian Strikes on Alabuga Shahid Manufacturing Plant
🎦 21:39-22:57⏩
Jonathan speculates about the possibility of Ukrainian strikes on the Alabuga Shahid manufacturing plant in Russia. He considers this target number one, given Ukraine's new long-range munitions. He wonders if such strikes might have already happened without public knowledge due to the plant's remote location and the risks of reporting such events. He admits this is "hopium" but believes it wouldn't be surprising if the plant had been hit.
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Explosions in Kursk and Speculation about Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 22:57-23:47⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions in Kursk, suggesting Ukrainian strikes in the area. He mentions the destruction of a Russian ammunition storage in a private house in the Grushkovo region, which could have been hit by artillery. He speculates that Kursk might have been struck by missiles and drones, but there is no confirmation.
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Russian Ammo Dump Hit Near Mariupol
🎦 23:47-24:25⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian ammo dump was reportedly hit and destroyed roughly 50 kilometers east of Mariupol. He notes that this could be a significant hindrance to the Russians, depending on the size of the ammunition dump.
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Speculation about Strikes in Grozny, Chechnya
🎦 24:26-26:55⏩
Jonathan discusses recent strikes in Grozny, Chechnya, including a small drone hitting a military installation and a larger strike on an Interior Ministry regiment barracks. He expresses skepticism about Ukraine's involvement, suggesting it would be counterproductive to provoke Chechnya. He speculates that these strikes could be internal issues or false flag operations by Russia, citing the 1999 apartment building bombings as a precedent. Jonathan quotes Kadyrov's response, threatening to send 84,000 volunteers to the front line and avenge the four wounded soldiers by killing 400 Ukrainian soldiers. Jonathan finds this counterproductive and questions the wisdom of provoking Chechnya.
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ATACMS Strike on Taganrog
🎦 26:56-29:33⏩
Jonathan confirms that the strike on Taganrog the night before was carried out with ATACMS missiles, as evidenced by the remnants of an ATACMS missile found near the aircraft repair plant. He mentions that there were two hits on Taganrog: the 325th aircraft repair plant and the military unit of the air base. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed there were wounded as a result of the strike on the military unit. The boiler room at the aircraft repair plant was damaged, but there is no information about damage to the workshops yet. At least one soldier was killed and more than 40 injured in the attack.
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Kremlin's Response to Taganrog Strike
🎦 29:33-30:55⏩
Jonathan reports that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that a response to the ATACMS attack on Taganrog will be delivered "at a time and in a manner deemed appropriate." Jonathan compares this to the Israeli response to Iranian strikes and speculates that the Taganrog strikes might have been more effective than initially thought, given the strong response from the Kremlin. He contrasts this with the lack of response to the massive strikes on the Transneft oil refinery in Bryansk.
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Explosions in Sevastopol and Potential Wider Crimean Strike
🎦 30:56-31:26⏩
Jonathan mentions that after explosions in Sevastopol, urgent repairs were announced, and the city would be without power. He speculates that this could be part of a wider Crimean strike that was reported but lacks further details.
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Russia May Launch New Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile
🎦 31:27-31:46⏩
Jonathan shares a report from Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh that Russia could launch its new intermediate-range ballistic missile, Irushnik, against Ukraine in the coming days. She added that the Russians are trying to use every weapon in their arsenal to intimidate Ukraine.
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Death Toll Rises in Zaporizhzhia Clinic Strike
🎦 31:46-32:38⏩
Jonathan reports that the death toll from the strike on a clinic in Zaporizhzhia has risen from 8 to 10. He notes that the victims appear to be predominantly female and expresses heartbreak over the civilian deaths.
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Active Talks for Major POW Exchange
🎦 32:39-33:13⏩
Jonathan shares that active talks for a major POW exchange by the end of the year have been ongoing for the past two weeks, according to Zelensky's advisor, Dmitry Litvin. He also mentions that Viktor Orban did not discuss a Christmas ceasefire or exchange with Ukraine, despite trying to organize one on behalf of Ukraine after a phone call with Putin. Jonathan expresses his disapproval of Viktor Orban.
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Analysis on Ukraine's Defensive Lines
🎦 33:14-33:43⏩
Jonathan shares an analysis from Gustav Gressel quoting Frontelligence (Tatarigami) on Substack. The analysis suggests that while a repeat of the sweeping maneuvers seen in 2022 seems unlikely, Russian forces are capable of methodically advancing against Ukraine's eroding defensive lines. This steady pressure places Ukraine at risk of an operational collapse if systemic challenges in command and organisation are not fixed. Jonathan notes that although the Russians are making grinding advances, it is not the end of the world but could lead to real issues.
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Russian Military Equipment Transfer from Crimea to Zaporizhzhia
🎦 33:43-34:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces are transferring military equipment from Crimea towards Zaporizhzhia, likely to support their upcoming offensive. The convoy includes armoured vehicles, tanks, BMPs, BTRs, as well as military tractors and trucks.
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Lack of Training and Usable Boats for Russian Soldiers in Dnipro Islands
🎦 34:29-38:56⏩
Jonathan shares a report from Chris about Russian soldiers in the Dnipro Islands (Kherson region) complaining about lack of training, usable boats, and their commanders lying about the situation. An email sent to the Soldatskaya Telegram channel details the issues faced by the troops, including commanders reporting units as well-prepared when they are not. The soldiers are sent to training, but not everyone, and a couple of weeks is not enough to master everything. The number of boats in normal condition can be counted on the fingers of one hand. The soldiers were given a first-class boat for a combat mission, but the motor was not working. The crew spent 24 hours trying to get it started. Jonathan highlights the ongoing issue of the need for boats in the Dnipro River Delta region and contrasts the support Ukraine receives from other nations with the likely lack of support for Russia in obtaining boats. He speculates that Ukrainians likely have a better chance of getting more boats than the Russians.
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Potential Change in Russian Rhetoric
🎦 38:57-39:27⏩
Jonathan discusses articles that could indicate a change in Russian rhetoric, possibly preparing the Russian audience for a withdrawal after January 20th. He shares a report claiming that Russia is close to achieving its special military operation goals in Ukraine, according to the Russian intelligence chief.
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Russian Troops Leaving Syria
🎦 39:28-40:17⏩
Jonathan shares a video of a Russian military convoy reportedly fleeing Tartus towards Kasab and Turkey in Syria. He notes that there are claims about whether the Russians are stuck in Syria, but this video suggests they are moving.
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Russia Testing Sovereign Internet
🎦 40:18-41:54⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of Russia blocking some areas of the country from the global web for a day as it continues to develop its own sovereign internet. This would allow Russia to control what its people see and read, with VPNs being ineffective. They are testing this out in certain regions. Jonathan notes that this has been an ongoing effort by Russia for some time, and they seem to be getting closer to achieving it.
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Shortage of Policemen in Russia
🎦 41:55-42:30⏩
Jonathan mentions that Russia is apparently short of 200,000 policemen. As a solution, they're suggesting scrapping internships and turning it into an open-door department. Jonathan wonders where the missing policemen might be and suggests this could indicate some of the losses in the war.
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Potential Dismissal of Head of Central Bank in Russia
🎦 42:31-43:43⏩
Jonathan reports that State Duma deputies want to dismiss Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the central bank, who has done a good job of keeping Russia from completely collapsing. Deputies have introduced a bill on the early removal of the head of the central bank, potentially making her the fall guy. The document will allow the state to establish control of the central bank's indicators, including the GDP growth rate. Jonathan notes that the ruble is not looking good again, having tanked previously and now shooting back up. He mentions a thread he read about hyperinflation being not far away for Russia.
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Zelensky's Interview with CBN News
🎦 43:43-45:04⏩
Jonathan shares key statements from Zelensky's interview with CBN News:
- Russian forces have killed around 50 Ukrainian priests and destroyed 700 Ukrainian churches.
- The invitation to NATO should apply to all of Ukraine, but the alliance's protection may not cover all territories (similar to West/East Germany).
- Russia has kidnapped at least 19,000 Ukrainian children.
- There is hope that Trump and his administration can achieve peace through strength, but this doesn't necessarily mean he has Ukraine's best interests at heart.
Jonathan adds his own comments about the statements and expresses concern over Trump's intentions, as discussed in his analysis of Trump's interview.
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Wrap up
🎦 45:05-45:20⏩
Jonathan wraps up the video, asking viewers to like, subscribe, and share. He mentions his goal of reaching 50,139 subscribers by January 2nd.
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