Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231010a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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"This is massively bloody significant if it is true. You are going to have drones that can hit again, you're talking about moving targets and targets that are within your longer range or your medium range artillery range."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, which show a slight uptick from the previous day but are still lower than recent averages, especially for equipment losses. He notes these are still significant human losses.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses and Ukrainian operations
- The Ukrainian 3rd Brigade captured a battalion commander of the Russian 72nd Mechanized Brigade near Bakhmut
- The Ukrainian 79th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an entire Russian column trying to storm their positions near Marinka. The Russians were hit with mines, precision artillery and cluster munitions, only advancing 200m.
- The Ukrainians are targeting Russian engineering vehicles constructing new defensive lines and trenches
Significance of the Tokmak ammunition train strike
Jonathan discusses the importance of the Ukrainian strike on a Russian ammunition train near Tokmak:
- It shows Ukraine can hit moving, high-value targets on the railway network
- Ukraine needed good intelligence and their most accurate artillery like Excalibur and GMLRS to pull this off
- The front line needed to stabilize around Robotyne, 12 miles from Tokmak, to bring it in range
- This is a key goal of the counteroffensive - gaining fire control over Russian logistics
Increased range of Ukrainian FPV drones
A Ukrainian FPV drone strike allegedly hit a Russian target 17.4km away, a huge increase over the typical 10km range. If true, this has major implications:
- Drones can now hit targets in the medium/long-range artillery zone
- Artillery can be pulled further back as drones take over some of their role
- From the current frontline, drones could soon reach the outskirts of Tokmak
- Ukraine needs to capitalize on this range advantage before Russia catches up
Other news
- Russia attacked Ukraine with 36 Shahed drones overnight, 27 were shot down (75% interception rate). Attacks focused on Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions, targeting grain export infrastructure.
- The death toll from the Russian missile strike on Hryhorivka has risen to 53, with 5 still missing
- President Zelenskyy replaced the commander of the Territorial Defense Forces (military reserves)
- The SBU detained a factory director in Kyiv for allegedly transferring $400,000 to Russian proxy forces
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and mentions he will get started on the next video. He signs off with his customary "Take care, speak to you soon."
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