Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"We can't let Ukraine fail because if it does, then there's a significant likelihood that America will have to inflict it get into the conflict not simply with our money but with our service women and our service men".

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:17⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to part 2 of the Ukraine War Update for 6th May 2024 which will focus on Military Aid and Equipment. He apologises for "rabbiting on a bit" in the previous video.

Return to top⤴️

Italy Rules Out Sending Troops to Ukraine

🎦 00:17-01:17⏩

Jonathan reports that the Italian Defence Minister, Guido Corsetto, has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine, adding that such discussions "increase tensions". Jonathan believes that this "de-escalation approach" plays into Putin's hands, and that Macron's approach of strategic ambiguity (whereby France refuses to rule out the deployment of troops to Ukraine but remains deliberately vague about how they might be used) is far more sensible. Jonathan notes with disapproval that Italy's stance amounts to "setting your own red lines" - something which will undoubtedly be "loved" by Putin.

Return to top⤴️

First Batch of Weapons from Latest US Aid Package Arrives in Ukraine

🎦 01:17-02:08⏩

Jonathan reports that the first batch of weapons from the latest US aid package has arrived in Ukraine, just four days after Biden signed the bill. Jonathan is highly critical of the six month delay in approving the aid package, arguing that it weakened Ukraine's defences and led to gradual losses of territory to Russian forces in Donetsk.

Return to top⤴️

US House Minority Leader on Aid Delays and the Rise of Pro-Russian Sentiment

🎦 02:08-03:50⏩

Jonathan discusses an interview on "60 Minutes" with US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, in which Jeffries claims that the month-long delay in approving the latest tranche of aid to Ukraine was the result of the growing influence of a "pro-Russian Vladimir Putin faction" within the Republican Party. Jonathan shares Jeffries' concerns about this faction, noting that Jeffries specifically singled out Republican congresswoman and noted conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene as one of its most prominent members. Greene, who has repeatedly disparaged Ukrainian leaders and spread baseless conspiracy theories about Ukraine, has been leading efforts to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson over his decision to hold a vote on the $61bn aid package (which was ultimately approved by both chambers and signed into law by President Biden). Jonathan agrees with Jeffries' assessment that continued obstruction of aid to Ukraine by this faction (whose views Jeffries believes to be shared by "top Republicans") would not only damage Ukraine's war effort but also undermine US national security. Jonathan points to Russia's history of aggression in Georgia as evidence that allowing Putin to secure a victory in Ukraine would only embolden him. Jonathan quotes Jeffries, who argued that "we can't let Ukraine fail because if it does, then there's a significant likelihood that America will have to inflict it get into the conflict not simply with our money but with our service women and our service men". Jonathan concludes by praising Jeffries' "good rhetoric" and agreeing with his assertion that the US should not view its support for Ukraine as an "unsuccessful endeavor".

Return to top⤴️

Canada and Denmark to Finance Domestic Arms Production in Ukraine

🎦 03:50-06:17⏩

Jonathan reports that Canada and Denmark have agreed to finance the production of weapons such as armoured vehicles and drones by Ukrainian defence manufacturers. Jonathan observes that this is a significant departure from the usual approach to military aid, whereby donor nations typically use aid money to stimulate their own domestic arms industries, rather than investing directly in those of recipient states. For example, Jonathan notes that France has consistently pursued a policy of channelling military aid through French companies, both for the benefit of its domestic arms industry and to ensure that aid money remains within the EU. Jonathan views Canada and Denmark's decision to eschew this approach and invest directly in Ukrainian manufacturing as a positive development, arguing that it will help to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat whilst also providing Ukraine with much-needed weapons. He concedes that this approach may not be universally welcomed, particularly by domestic arms manufacturers in Canada and Denmark (citing the example of the Canadian firm Roshel, which manufactures Senator APCs, as a case in point), but maintains that it makes both economic and strategic sense for Ukraine to be able to produce its own weapons and equipment. This is in contrast to the more commonplace practice, whereby, for example, Danish Krona ends up being spent on weapons and equipment produced by American or British firms, before ultimately ending up in Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Rheinmetall to Supply Ukraine with Artillery Shells (including Prototypes with 100km Range)

🎦 06:17-08:06⏩

Jonathan reports that the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall will deliver a "six figure" number of conventional artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of the year. Jonathan expresses a desire for further clarification on precisely how many shells this figure equates to (speculating that it could be anywhere between 100,000 and 999,000). In addition, Jonathan reports that Rheinmetall will also supply Ukraine with prototypes of a new type of 155mm artillery shell with a range of up to 100km. This new type of shell will supplement the Volcano 155mm shells (some variants of which have a range of up to 70km) that Rheinmetall has already supplied to Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Finland Considers Building TNT Factory in Response to Explosives Shortage

🎦 08:06-08:50⏩

Jonathan reports that Finland is considering building a TNT factory in response to an acute shortage of explosives, which is creating a bottleneck in the production of artillery shells. According to the Finnish Defence Minister, Antti Hakkanen, it would take an estimated two years for such a plant to become operational. However, Jonathan views the proposal as further evidence of the ongoing shift within the EU towards a war footing.

Return to top⤴️

Footage Emerges of Ukrainian F-16s

🎦 08:50-09:39⏩

Jonathan reports that footage of F-16 fighter jets bearing Ukrainian Air Force insignia was shown in a video message from Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk to mark the 20th anniversary of the Kharkiv National University of the Air Force. Although Jonathan characterises the video as something of a PR exercise, he is nonetheless excited by the footage, which he believes suggests that Ukraine is moving ever closer to operating its own fleet of F-16s.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian Troops Undergoing Training on Panzerhaubitze 2000 Howitzers

🎦 09:39-10:11⏩

Jonathan reports that footage has emerged of Ukrainian troops undergoing training on the Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzer. Jonathan views the ongoing nature of the training as a positive sign, arguing that it suggests that Ukraine's allies are committed to supplying it with a steady stream of these weapons for the foreseeable future.

Return to top⤴️

Hungary Refuses to Extradite Ukrainian Men Fleeing Mobilisation

🎦 10:11-12:52⏩

Jonathan reports that Hungary will not extradite Ukrainian men who have fled to Hungary to avoid mobilisation. Jonathan notes that he recently produced a video examining the complex legal and moral questions surrounding whether such men are entitled to claim refugee status. Although Jonathan does not believe that men who have fled Ukraine out of fear or a desire to provide for their families automatically qualify for refugee status, he emphasises that he is not passing judgment on any individuals who have made the difficult decision to leave Ukraine. Jonathan also notes that Ukrainian men who have fled to Hungary (which he describes as "unsurprisingly" opposed to Ukraine winning the war) may find it easier to be granted refugee status there than they would in other countries. After all, it is clearly in Hungary's (and, by extension, Russia's) interests for Ukrainian men of fighting age to remain outside of Ukraine. Jonathan suspects that Hungary is likely to adopt a deliberately obstructive approach when it comes to extraditing Ukrainian men, perhaps even granting them refugee status regardless of whether they actually meet the criteria for it. Jonathan concludes by stressing that decisions about an individual's eligibility for refugee status must be made on a case-by-case basis and should not be influenced by political calculations.

Return to top⤴️

Russia Prepares to Mobilise Ukrainians in Occupied Zaporizhzhia

🎦 12:52-14:06⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia is preparing to carry out its first mobilisation in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Jonathan quotes the head of Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Ivan Fedorov, who stated that "today they [Russia] have created the entire infrastructure that deals with conscription. Military desks have been created at every enterprise where military records of residents or who remain in temporary occupation are kept". Although Jonathan finds it "deeply uncool", he is unsurprised that Russia is resorting to such measures given its ongoing need for manpower.

Return to top⤴️

Timothy Snyder Praises "Surrey Stands with Ukraine"

🎦 14:06-14:46⏩

Jonathan shows a tweet by Timothy Snyder praising the "amazing work" being done by "Surrey Stands With Ukraine". Jonathan believes that "Surrey Stands with Ukraine" may have been part of the large convoy of fire engines that recently travelled from the UK to Ukraine and expresses his admiration for such initiatives.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine Experiments with New FPV Kamikaze Drones Designed to Intercept Orlan Drones

🎦 14:46-15:54⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces are experimenting with new FPV kamikaze drones designed to intercept Russian Orlan reconnaissance drones. According to Jonathan, initial attempts to use the new drones were unsuccessful because they could not overcome the downwash from the Orlan's rotors. However, Jonathan reports that Ukrainian engineers are exploring a number of possible solutions, including the addition of a remotely detonated fragmentation warhead that could be used to disable the Orlan. Jonathan explains that many air defence missiles use fragmentation warheads, which explode in front of their target, showering it with high-velocity fragments that either destroy it outright or knock it off course. Jonathan believes that a similar approach could be used to develop effective anti-drone drones.

Return to top⤴️

China Opens Drone Factory in Russia

🎦 15:54-17:17⏩

Jonathan reports that a Chinese firm, Zhitian Intelligence Equipment, has opened a factory in Russia that will produce 20 agricultural drones a month. Jonathan is highly sceptical of Russia's claims that the factory, which is based in Krasnodar, is intended to meet demand from Russia's agricultural sector, speculating that the drones are in fact destined for use by the Russian military. Jonathan notes that drones have become an indispensable tool of modern warfare (citing the example of the highly effective Ukrainian-made Baba Yaga drones) and believes that Russia will be keen to deploy similar drones of its own. Jonathan is also highly critical of China's decision to open such a factory at a time when Russia is waging an illegal war of aggression against Ukraine, arguing that it constitutes a "real problem" and amounts to either a loophole in the existing sanctions regime or an outright breach of it. Jonathan believes that steps must be taken to prevent China from undermining international efforts to constrain Russia's ability to wage war.

Return to top⤴️

Russia Recruits Cuban Mercenaries

🎦 17:17-17:48⏩

Jonathan reports that an investigation by the BBC has uncovered evidence suggesting that Russia has been recruiting Cuban mercenaries to fight in Ukraine. According to Jonathan, passport details belonging to over 200 Cubans who are believed to have joined the Russian army were leaked online in late 2023. Jonathan notes that this is just the latest example of Russia's efforts to bolster its depleted ranks with foreign fighters. He reminds viewers that Russia has already recruited mercenaries from a number of countries, including Nepal and Cape Verde.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 17:48-17:56⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video.

Return to top⤴️