Full Frontline Update
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"Given all this talk about massive Russian offensives and given the last really month of activity, Russia has achieved pretty much nothing at the moment."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a frontline update for the Ukraine war on Valentine's Day, 14th February 2023. He notes there hasn't been a great amount of news in the last 24 hours but will cover what he can.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian losses in Vuhledar
- Vladimir Putin has publicly stood by the Russian Ministry of Defence as Russian forces continue to suffer catastrophic casualties around Vuhledar.
- Putin praised the Pacific and Northern fleets, likely in response to substantial losses of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet in their assault on Vuhledar.
- The use of mobilised personnel as replacements in battle-damaged units is unlikely to generate sufficient offensive capabilities for a large-scale rapid mechanised advance.
Expectations of a Russian offensive
- There are conflicting claims about the likelihood of a huge Russian offensive. Ukrainian intelligence suggested Russia may not have the capacity, but Serhii Haidai said to expect massive attacks in the Luhansk region.
- Troops are building up in Luhansk and there are offensives in the northeastern sector near Kupiansk, Kreminna, and Bakhmut.
- In the last four weeks, Russia has made minimal gains - only conquering about six villages near Bakhmut.
Situation around Kupiansk
- Around Kupiansk, there are artillery duels and positional battles along the front line. The situation is complicated by extensive mining.
- The enemy is forming reserves in Lyptsi to reinforce capabilities in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions.
- Russians are trying to push Ukrainians out of the salient along the Oskil River north of Kupiansk. Keeping the Ukrainian bridgehead in artillery range is essential to prevent an offensive developing.
Fighting around Kreminna
- Heavy fighting continues in the forested areas west of Kreminna. Russian forces have launched several assault attempts but so far unsuccessfully.
- The Russian MOD confirmed fighting in the area of Dibrova, Kuzmyne and Kreminna.
- Intense fighting in the forest area as Russians try to improve positions for an offensive towards Lyman and Siversk. Bilohorivka is under pressure.
Bakhmut update
- Fighting continues all along the front line around Bakhmut - Vasyukivka, Fedorivka, Paraskoviivka, Berkhivka, Ivanivske.
- Russians have taken Krasna Hora north of Bakhmut. Wagner forces are trying to advance on Paraskoviivka but have not reached the highway yet.
- South of Ivanivske, Russians may have been pushed back 1.7km from the T0504 road in a forested area. This helps prevent encirclement of Bakhmut.
- The relative stability allows Ukraine to fix Russians in place, attrit forces and play for time while waiting for trained troops and Western equipment before launching a counter-offensive.
Advances in Avdiivka and Marinka
- Russians have advanced in Novobakhmutivka north of Avdiivka and now control almost all of it according to pro-Russian sources.
- Marinka is under pressure with fighting west of Druzhba Avenue. Long thin settlements like Marinka and Pobjeda are difficult for Russians to take head-on so they try to encircle them.
Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia front
- Despite firm Ukrainian resistance, Vuhledar has been devastated by Russian shelling and thermobaric munitions. The sturdy apartment blocks provide good positions for Ukrainian troops.
- Russian assaults on Vuhledar continue with no results. Reinforcements of mobilised troops are arriving. Ukrainian HIMARS struck a Russian HQ, killing the commander.
- Some skirmishing reported south of Hulyaipole near Dorozhnyanka on the Zaporizhzhia front. Defences still being built in the region.
Kherson Oblast
- No Russian offensive operations in Kherson/Mykolaiv Oblasts in the last few days. Russian forces rotated troops on the Kinburn Spit out of Ukrainian artillery range.
- Russians strengthened counter-subversive measures in east bank of Kherson Oblast by deploying 200 riot police, suggesting brewing partisan activity.
- Ukrainians continue to shell Russian positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River, destroying equipment. A loitering munition struck a Russian observation post on the Nova Kakhovka dam.
Other updates
- Ukrainian intelligence suggests Russia may postpone a second wave of mobilisation as they still struggle with the first wave.
- Wagner Group mercenaries are suffering high casualties in eastern Ukraine. One soldier claimed 60 of 90 personnel in his unit died in an assault near Bilohorivka.
- Wagner command threatened to kill retreating soldiers and not evacuate the wounded. Another video shows a Wagner member being executed with a sledgehammer as a warning against desertion.
Wrap up
Jonathan notes the update provides pieces of the jigsaw that point to the accuracy of Ukrainian figures on Russian losses. Of course, Ukraine is also suffering from drone attacks and loitering munitions. He asks viewers to like, subscribe, share and thanks them for their support.
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