Ukraine's Counteroffensive Challenges
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is a tree line war. The fields are completely flat, completely exposed. There is nowhere to hide. There is no way to approach the front line without being spotted by Russian surveillance drones. The same is true of the Russians on the other side, by the way. It's almost an entirely transparent battlefield. Your only cover anywhere is the treeline, which means everybody digs in to defend the treeline, which means you've got to assault the tree line."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the topic of Ukraine's counteroffensive challenges and mentions a quote from General Ben Hodges that will lead into the main topic of discussion. He also references a recent podcast from Ukraine: The Latest that provides valuable insights.
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General Hodges on Ukraine's Counteroffensive Strategy
- General Hodges believes most people are looking at Ukraine's counteroffensive with the wrong context. The slow pace has raised concerns in the West.
- Hodges says Ukrainians have correctly focused efforts on destroying Russian artillery, headquarters and logistics. This neutralizes Russia's only advantage - the advantage of mass.
- Hodges is critical of voices in the Pentagon doubting Ukraine's approach, saying "There's no way we would send an American soldier to do what the Ukrainians are having to do because we would never go in there without air superiority."
Increased Artillery Destruction
A viewer comment suggests the increased artillery destruction by Ukraine in recent months could be due to:
- Knocking out Russian air defense systems
- Drones now able to move with impunity and spot artillery that can no longer hide effectively
This is reflected in the daily figures from Ukraine's General Staff. A Russian complaint from an ultra-nationalist around Kherson also claimed Ukrainians are hammering Russians with artillery as they lack counter-battery capabilities and electronic warfare.
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Retired British Colonel Richard Kemp on Ukraine's Challenges
Retired British Army Colonel Richard Kemp visited the front lines and witnessed how tough the fight is for Ukrainians trying to break through strongly defended Russian positions, made more difficult by Russian air superiority. However, Kemp notes Ukrainians have an advantage in drone usage for reconnaissance.
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Battlefield Geography and Tree Lines
- The southern third of Ukraine is the Pontic Steppe - relatively flat land that was traversed by nomads before settlement a few hundred years ago.
- In the late 19th/early 20th century, tree lines were planted as windbreaks in a grid pattern to prevent topsoil erosion as agriculture was industrialized.
- The landscape is now divided into ~1km x 2-3km fields separated by tree lines. This completely defines the battlefield.
- Soldiers described it as a "tree line war" - the fields are completely exposed with drone surveillance, so the only cover is the tree lines where everyone digs in to defend, meaning assaults must happen along the tree lines.
Evolving Ukrainian Tactics
- Ukraine initially attempted armoured breakthroughs and blitzkrieg style assaults, but vehicles quickly ran into heavily mined areas and anti-tank guided missile teams in tree lines.
- Switched to smaller infantry units fighting along the tree lines to try gain a foothold in Russian trenches. Incredibly difficult due to constant exposure to drones, mines, and close quarters fighting.
- Every tree line is fortified with trenches, ATGM teams, etc. Vehicles can drop off infantry but it's too risky for them to stay. Artillery and vehicle weapons often can't effectively hit the deep trenches.
- Russians are well motivated and professional in these key areas, contrary to some perceptions. Survival often comes down to luck and refusal to give up.
Comparisons to Bocage Fighting after D-Day
The fighting in Ukraine is compared to the bocage fighting in Normandy after D-Day in WW2. Allies faced similar challenges with Germans dug into sunken lanes and hedgerows, but the Ukrainian battlefield is considered even harder with modern anti-tank weapons, drones, helicopters that outrange MANPADs, and extensive minefields.
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Degrading Russian Capabilities
Jonathan suggests the solution is for Ukraine to focus on severely degrading Russian armour and air defense capabilities before attempting more advances. If air defenses are weakened enough, Ukraine can employ more drones and start moving up planes and armor. Electronic warfare could be used to ground all drones, removing that advantage for both sides but allowing Ukrainian troops and armor to move once Russia is weakened in other areas.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes how much longer it takes to secure captured Russian trenches due to booby traps and other challenges, further slowing the Ukrainian counteroffensive. He shows an example of a Russian trench line in Crimea, noting the ones in Zaporizhzhia may not be as extensive yet, but the longer Russia has to prepare, the more difficult they will be to capture. Jonathan asks for viewer feedback on the topic before signing off.
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