Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - Macron, Trump, Lies, Deals, & the UN
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Table of Contents 📖
"Like many Ukrainians, I once saw the US as the ultimate symbol of freedom and strength. I thought Ukraine was far behind. I was wrong. We walked through fire, only to realise what we were looking for wasn't across the ocean. It was always here. In us."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update, part three of the day's coverage (excluding a breaking news update).
- He confirms the date is 25th February 2025.
- This update will focus on geopolitical news, particularly US related, acknowledging the difficulty in avoiding US topics due to the volume of comments from the Trump administration.
US Administration's "Baghdad Bob" impression on Ukraine War
🎦 00:14-00:45⏩
- Jonathan draws a parallel between current US administration officials defending President Trump's Ukraine stance and "Baghdad Bob" from the Iraq War era, who relentlessly justified Saddam Hussein's regime.
- He notes administration officials are having to "turn themselves into pretzels" to defend Trump's assertions that Zelensky is a dictator and Russia didn't start the war.
- This is described as a "white is black, black is white moment" reflecting Republican fear and the pressure to align with Trump's views, even when untrue.
Trump's Vague Stance on Russian Aggression
🎦 00:45-03:22⏩
- Jonathan highlights the reluctance of Trump administration figures to clearly identify Russia as the aggressor in the Ukraine war.
- He cites examples of officials like Pete Hegseth saying "it's complicated" when asked about Russian aggression, and Mike Waltz downplaying the importance of characterising who invaded who.
- He contrasts this with the undeniable reality of Russian tanks crossing the border in 2022.
- Trump, in an interview with Brian Kilmeade on Fox News, even after being pressed multiple times, only reluctantly acknowledged Russia's invasion, immediately downplaying its significance and claiming it "wouldn't have happened" under his leadership.
US Position Appears to Appease Russia
🎦 03:22-04:24⏩
- Jonathan argues that the US administration's reluctance to name Russia as the aggressor and use terms like "war" signals an appeasement of Russia.
- He points to the US potentially avoiding UN resolutions condemning Russia and some officials even using the term "special military operation".
- This alignment with Russian rhetoric suggests a lack of commitment to seeking the best outcome for Ukraine.
Juxtaposition of Trump-Macron Meeting and Global Ukraine Solidarity
🎦 04:24-05:37⏩
- Jonathan contrasts the Trump-Macron meeting at the White House with the widespread global commemoration and celebration of "Ukrainian-ness" on the anniversary of the war.
- He notes the "stark juxtaposition" between Trump's stance and the international solidarity displayed in cities worldwide, including Toronto, Boston, Vilnius, Pretoria, Paris, Brussels, Rome, Berlin, Amsterdam, Taipei, Glasgow, Madrid, London and Prague.
- He highlights the impressive images shared of these global displays of support.
Macron's Truth-Telling and Trump's Rudeness at Press Conference
🎦 05:37-07:26⏩
- Despite global support, Jonathan notes the absence of a clear message of support from Donald Trump.
- He discusses the Macron-Trump meeting and press conference, highlighting Macron's attempts to state facts and correct Trump's falsehoods regarding the Ukraine war.
- Macron emphasized the importance of dialogue even with those you disagree with, but stated he stopped discussions with Putin after Bucha war crimes. He suggests Trump re-engaging with Putin is reasonable given the new US administration.
- Macron corrected Trump's apparent downplaying of Putin's culpability by referencing the "butcher" of Bucha.
Fox News Audience Shielded from Macron's Counter-Narrative
🎦 07:26-07:42⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern that Fox News viewers, Trump's primary audience, will likely only be shown clips of Trump and not Macron's factual corrections and counter-narratives.
- He fears this selective presentation will reinforce Trump's misleading views on the Ukraine war among his base.
European Leaders' Solidarity Trip to Kyiv Contrasts Trump's Absence
🎦 07:42-09:01⏩
- Jonathan highlights the contrasting image of European leaders, including those from Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Ursula von der Leyen, travelling to Kyiv by night train to meet with Zelensky, showcasing European solidarity.
- He contrasts this with Trump's absence and suggests he could never imagine Trump in such a situation, highlighting the different approaches to international relations.
Trump's "Dictator" Remarks on Zelensky and Putin
🎦 09:01-10:08⏩
- Jonathan discusses Trump's remarks where he called Zelensky a dictator when questioned if he would use the same term for Putin.
- Trump initially affirmed he would call Putin a dictator too, but then backtracked, stating he doesn't use the word "lightly" and "we'll see how it works out," implying Zelensky is indeed a dictator in his view.
- This is interpreted as Trump equivocating on Putin's dictatorship while doubling down on the dictator label for Zelensky.
Macron Corrects Trump on European Financial Contributions to Ukraine
🎦 10:08-12:24⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of Macron correcting Trump's false claim that Europe is only providing loans to Ukraine and will get their money back.
- Macron clarifies that Europe has paid 60% of the total effort, primarily through loans and guarantees, directly contradicting Trump's assertion.
- Trump dismissively responds, "If you believe that, that's okay with me," demonstrating rudeness and disregard for factual information.
Trump's "Freaking Rude" Dismissal of Facts
🎦 12:24-12:56⏩
- Jonathan expresses outrage at Trump's dismissive and "insanely rude" response to Macron's factual correction about European aid.
- He emphasizes the disrespect shown by Trump in dismissing Macron's accurate information with "if you believe that, you're okay with me," especially after Macron presented factual data.
Macron's Fact-Based Approach vs. Trump's Vague Propaganda
🎦 12:56-14:25⏩
- Jonathan praises Macron for calling out lies and stating verifiable truths, contrasting this with Trump's approach.
- He highlights Macron's clear statements about peace needing to guarantee Ukrainian sovereignty and allow Ukraine to negotiate, which are absent from Trump's vague pronouncements.
- Jonathan urges viewers to pay attention to Trump's speeches and note the lack of detail and reliance on platitudes and lies, characterizing it as "surface level veneer propaganda".
International Rejection of Trump's Kremlin Party Line
🎦 14:25-15:12⏩
- Jonathan quotes Julie Street who notes Macron's mission was to understand who is influencing Trump, whom she calls an "absolute effing idiot".
- He notes that internationally, the more Trump aligns with the Kremlin's narrative, the more he is rejected outside the US.
- However, he acknowledges that a significant portion of the US population, those who consume right-wing media, will remain unaware of criticisms and corrections of Trump, reinforcing his narrative within that demographic.
Ukrainian Public Opinion Poll on World Leaders
🎦 15:12-17:20⏩
- Jonathan presents results from a fresh poll in Ukraine regarding world leaders' popularity.
- Highest Approval: Emmanuel Macron (77%), Andrzej Duda (72%), Von der Leyen (67%), Olaf Scholz & Erdogan (57%), Keir Starmer (56%).
- Lowest Approval: Viktor Orban (11%), Lukashenko (8%), Putin (1%).
- Zelenskyy's approval rating within Ukraine is 74%.
- 91% of Ukrainians oppose US-Russia talks on Ukraine without Ukraine.
- 64% support talks with Russia.
- 81% believe compromise via third-party talks is best for peace.
- 83% believe security guarantees are essential for an armistice.
Germany's Underappreciated Support for Ukraine
🎦 17:20-18:29⏩
- Jonathan argues that Olaf Scholz and Germany receive undue criticism, possibly due to the Taurus missile issue.
- He contends that Germany's actions demonstrate significantly more support for Ukraine than France, suggesting actions speak louder than words, though he qualifies this point.
- He then discusses Alison Campbell's view that Macron effectively balanced ego-stroking Trump with serious policy during their interaction.
Trump's Ignorance and Slagging Off His Own Trade Deal
🎦 18:29-19:32⏩
- Jonathan highlights Trump's contradictory statements regarding tariffs on Mexico and Canada, where he criticised the existing free trade deal as "crap" and blamed the "idiot" who signed it.
- He points out the irony and ignorance of Trump slagging off the deal he himself signed, showcasing either blatant lying or profound ignorance.
- Macron had to endure a considerable amount of domestic policy discussion during the meeting.
Macron's Effective Damage Limitation
🎦 19:32-20:06⏩
- Jonathan summarises opinions that Macron performed well in a difficult situation, managing Trump's ego while trying to convey factual information about Ukraine.
- Despite the gulf in policy between the US and Europe, Macron did as well as could be expected in the meeting.
- It is suspected Trump would not have appreciated Macron's fact-checking and praise of Ukraine.
Keir Starmer's Subtly Contrasting Trump's Ukraine Stance
🎦 20:06-21:23⏩
- Jonathan discusses Keir Starmer's approach to contradicting Trump's stance on Ukraine without direct confrontation.
- Starmer phoned Zelensky to reaffirm territorial integrity and that Zelensky was "directly elected," implicitly refuting Trump's dictator claim, without directly attacking Trump.
- This is seen as a strategic approach by Starmer, contrasting with what Jonathan could say directly ("Trump's an idiot").
Edward Hunter Christie's Synopsis: Macron's Damage Limitation and Weak Pushback
🎦 21:23-23:34⏩
- Jonathan shares Edward Hunter Christie's synopsis of the Trump-Macron press conference, describing it as a "painful experience."
- Christie argues Trump repeated lies and half-truths, steamrolling discussion and "brainwashing" his population.
- Macron is seen as "bending to Trump," accepting Trump's negotiation format against Ukraine, and carefully avoiding direct contradiction of Trump's false narratives, engaging in "damage limitation."
- Macron's strengths were in emphasizing security guarantees for Ukraine and Europe's increased role, and correcting Trump's funding claims in the seated press point.
- However, in the podium press point, Macron did not repeat corrections, and Trump lied again.
- Christie is disturbed by Macron's positive noises on the minerals deal and apparent acceptance of security guarantees being conditional on this deal, undermining Ukraine's position.
Skepticism Regarding US Security Guarantees and Macron's Confidence
🎦 23:34-24:24⏩
- Christie expresses skepticism about the "fragility" of initial assurances regarding US support for a European peacekeeping presence in Ukraine, questioning the reliability of US security guarantees.
- He notes the first question at the podium Q&A was "planted" to flatter Trump, highlighting rising authoritarian tendencies.
- Christie believes Macron was subdued and cautious due to the unpleasant closed-door conversation with Trump and his "maniac" officials, needing to "cover up" for it.
Ukrainian Official: War Unlikely to End in 2025
🎦 24:24-24:51⏩
- Jonathan reports on a statement from a Ukrainian Rada Defense Committee Chairman, Kostenko, who believes the war will "definitely not end in 2025."
- While a "freeze" or "temporary cessation" is possible, the expectation of a quick resolution is contradicted by this assessment from a key Ukrainian figure.
UK to Host European Leaders Meeting on Ukraine
🎦 24:51-25:14⏩
- Bloomberg reports the UK will convene European leaders on March 2nd to discuss Ukraine and defence issues.
- This is seen as a display of UK leadership and an attempt by Keir Starmer to position himself centrally on the Ukraine issue, both for PR and Britain's future, and to strengthen EU relations.
UK Announces Largest Sanctions Package
🎦 25:14-25:39⏩
- The UK announced its largest sanctions package targeting 107 individuals and organisations supplying Russia with machinery, electronics, dual-use goods, and banking services.
UK Cross-Party Support for Ukraine Highlighted
🎦 25:39-26:57⏩
- Jonathan addresses accusations of being "communist," clarifying his centrist to centre-left political stance, particularly right-leaning on defence.
- He praises the cross-party support for Ukraine in the UK Parliament, including Conservatives, Lib Dems, and SNP, except Reform UK.
- He highlights a House of Commons speech by Labour Foreign Secretary David Lammy on UK support for Ukraine, with widespread cross-party agreement and support.
Priti Patel's Strong Endorsement of Government's Ukraine Policy
🎦 26:57-31:07⏩
- Jonathan plays clips from David Lammy's speech and, surprisingly, Priti Patel (Conservative Shadow Foreign Secretary) strongly endorsing the government's Ukraine policy.
- Despite personally disliking Patel, Jonathan acknowledges her statement is "absolutely freaking spot on."
- Patel commends the government's actions, highlighting UK leadership in training Ukrainian recruits, donating tanks and missiles, imposing sanctions, and providing multi-year funding.
- She notes the catastrophic cost to Putin, Russia's Black Sea fleet losses, million casualties, economic dire straits, and the failure of Putin's stability narrative.
- Patel thanks the British public for supporting Ukrainian refugees and urges continued support for Ukraine with hardware and diplomatic efforts.
UK Unity on Ukraine Contrasts US Division
🎦 31:07-32:48⏩
- Jonathan expresses amazement at Priti Patel's strong bipartisan support, contrasting it sharply with the deep divisions in the US, where even the Republican party is not unified in supporting Ukraine.
- He emphasizes the unusual nature of Patel, a divisive figure, strongly backing the government's Ukraine policy "because it's right to do so."
- Patel welcomes new sanctions and seeks confirmation that sanctions will not be lifted, advocating for stronger deterrence and security guarantees.
UK Opposition's Commitment to Defence Spending
🎦 32:48-35:27⏩
- Patel, on behalf of the opposition, pledges to "engage with the government at every single level" to support Ukraine, offering full cooperation.
- She emphasizes the need to lead NATO allies and highlights the existing plan to reach 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030.
- Keir Starmer has now announced a target of 2.5% by 2027, a positive step.
- Patel urges the government to consider matching this commitment and setting a new benchmark for NATO, advocating for increased defence production.
- She suggests reviewing and repurposing part of the 0.5% ODA budget to further national defence and security.
UK Opposition Supports Mobilising Russian Sovereign Assets
🎦 35:27-35:48⏩
- Patel strongly supports mobilising Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine, echoing the Foreign Secretary's stance and urging further action on this front.
- Jonathan praises Patel's "absolutely brilliant" statement and the overall strong cross-party support in the UK.
Further UK Cross-Party Condemnation of Trump
🎦 35:48-39:04⏩
- Jonathan briefly showcases further examples of cross-party condemnation of Trump's stance on Ukraine from Liberal Democrats and Conservatives in the UK Parliament.
- Lib Dem criticism is highlighted as particularly strong against Trump.
- Stephen Flynn of the Scottish National Party also condemns Trump's "repulsive" remarks about Zelensky being a dictator, showing widespread UK political disgust at Trump's positions.
- Jonathan concludes this segment, reiterating the unity in the UK (excluding Reform UK) in support of Ukraine and against Trump's approach.
EU Preparing 17th Sanctions Package
🎦 39:04-39:25⏩
- Moving away from the UK, Jonathan reports that the EU is preparing its 17th sanctions package against Russia.
- EU High Representative Kaja Kallas states it will target the shadow fleet, drone suppliers, sanction-evading banks, and propaganda media.
- EU Foreign Ministers also discussed further military aid for Ukraine, indicating continued pressure on Russia from the EU.
Norwegian PM Suggests Ukraine EU Membership by 2027
🎦 39:25-40:08⏩
- Jonathan reports that the Norwegian Prime Minister suggests Ukraine could join the EU as early as 2027.
- He expresses surprise and some doubt, but acknowledges the potential significance if achieved so quickly.
- The Norwegian PM emphasizes that Europe and Ukraine need to earn their place in negotiations and global influence through political, military, and economic power.
G7 Meeting and US Resistance to Condemning Russia
🎦 40:08-40:43⏩
- The G7 convened with Justin Trudeau as chair, with Trump and Macron participating virtually, and Zelensky also present.
- Zelensky and Trump reportedly had a "good conversation" during the meeting.
- The G7 is struggling to agree on a joint statement on the war due to US resistance to explicitly condemning Russia as the aggressor and referring to it as a "war," highlighting the US's continued appeasement stance.
Canada Imposes New Sanctions on Russia
🎦 40:43-41:09⏩
- Following the G7 meeting, Canada imposed new sanctions on 76 individuals and entities linked to Russia's military-industrial complex, deportation of Ukrainian children, propaganda, top officials, and oligarchs close to Putin.
- This is presented as positive news, contrasting with the US position.
South Korea Reportedly Lifting Sanctions on Russia
🎦 41:09-41:51⏩
- In negative news, Jonathan reports that South Korea is reportedly beginning to lift sanctions on Russia from February 28th, removing restrictions on medical equipment supplies.
- This move is described as "shameful" by a commenter.
- It is speculated this is driven by the new opposition leadership in South Korea, seeking to please Trump, potentially linked to a misguided belief Trump would help reunify Korea.
Chinese Vessel Cuts Undersea Cable off Taiwan
🎦 41:51-42:24⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to the Pacific, reporting that a Chinese fishing vessel has cut an undersea cable off Taiwan, using a method similar to Baltic Sea incidents.
- The Taiwanese Coast Guard detained a Chinese merchant ship for severing undersea cables, highlighting increasing tensions in the region.
US-Ukraine Mineral Deal Nearing Completion
🎦 42:24-43:51⏩
- Moving to economic news, Jonathan reports claims that the US and Ukraine are close to a mineral deal potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
- The US aims to express its commitment to a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine through this deal, according to Axios.
- The draft agreement proposes a "reconstruction investment fund" jointly managed by the US and Ukraine, with the US committed to long-term financial support for a stable and prosperous Ukraine.
- The fund would invest in Ukrainian projects, including mining and ports, and potentially reimburse US defence costs.
- Ukraine would contribute $500 billion to the fund, double the US contribution, sourced from 50% of Ukraine's revenue from resource extraction.
- The deal would also include provisions for liberated occupied territories.
US Resists Security Guarantees in Mineral Deal
🎦 43:51-44:16⏩
- Despite the mineral deal, CNN reports the US is resisting including security guarantees in the agreement with Ukraine.
- This is seen as problematic, as security guarantees are considered essential for Ukraine, and leverage in negotiations.
Boris Johnson Supports US-Ukraine Mineral Deal
🎦 44:16-44:30⏩
- Boris Johnson reportedly supports signing the mineral deal, viewing it as "generally good."
- He believes it commits the US to a free and sovereign Ukraine and that continued US support is worth the price for Ukraine.
Bill Browder Criticizes US-Ukraine Mineral Deal
🎦 44:30-45:00⏩
- Bill Browder expresses shock and criticism of the mineral deal, questioning "what is in it for Ukraine?"
- He implies the deal may be exploitative and disadvantageous to Ukraine, urging viewers to review the details themselves.
EU Reportedly Offers Ukraine Alternative Mineral Deal
🎦 45:00-45:36⏩
- The EU has reportedly offered Ukraine its own mineral deal, suggesting Ukraine could supply 21 of 30 critical materials needed by Europe.
- The EU offer is framed as not being a "mutually beneficial agreement" or exploitative, contrasting with the US deal which is seen as potentially extractive.
- However, a European Commission spokesperson denies that the EC has proposed any mineral deals to Ukraine, contradicting reports quoting Commissioner Sejourne.
- Jonathan speculates this denial might be to avoid upsetting the US.
Potential EU Mineral Deal Aimed at Mutual Benefit, Not Reparations
🎦 45:36-46:10⏩
- Jonathan suggests the EU may still pursue a mineral deal, but frame it as mutually beneficial, not related to reparations or exploitation.
- This approach would aim to benefit both Ukraine's development and the EU's access to critical minerals, presenting a fairer alternative to the US deal.
US Mineral Deal Seen as Exploitative
🎦 46:10-46:24⏩
- Jonathan reiterates the perception that the US wants to "screw as much out of Ukraine as economically possible" through the mineral deal.
US-Russia Negotiations to Discuss Russia's War Aims
🎦 46:24-46:50⏩
- Marco Rubio states that upcoming US-Russia negotiations will discuss what Moscow is willing to do to end the war in Ukraine.
- Jonathan reacts with "about bloody time," expressing frustration that previous discussions seemed focused on pressuring Ukraine rather than Russia.
US Refuses to Sign UN Resolution Condemning Russia
🎦 46:50-48:39⏩
- Jonathan reports the US did not sign a UN resolution condemning Russia for the Ukraine war.
- The resolution, calling for Russia to return occupied territories, was signed by Russia, North Korea, Belarus, and 14 other Moscow-friendly countries, including the US.
- This is presented as shocking and outrageous.
- A Ukrainian resolution demanding Russian withdrawal and accountability for war crimes was passed by 93 votes, with 18 against and 65 abstentions.
- Astonishingly, the US voted against this resolution, alongside Belarus, North Korea, and Russia.
- Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany voted for the resolution.
- The US also did not vote for its own resolution after it was amended by EU members to more strongly condemn Russia, due to the positive amendment.
US's New Allies: Russia, North Korea, and Others in UN Vote
🎦 48:39-49:06⏩
- Jonathan lists the countries that voted with the US against the UN resolution condemning Russia: Russia, North Korea, Israel, Hungary, Belarus, Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Nicaragua, Niger, Haiti, Palau, and Sudan.
- This is described as a "new reality" and "has to be a joke, right?", reflecting disbelief at the US aligning with such countries against a resolution supporting Ukraine.
Israeli Vote Against Ukraine Resolution Due to US Pressure
🎦 49:06-49:56⏩
- It is suggested that Israel's vote against the Ukraine resolution was due to "massive American pressure" exerted by the US administration right up to the vote.
- This contrasts with a previous assumption that Israel's vote might be due to Netanyahu's relationship with Putin.
- Jonathan expresses disgust at the US pressuring Israel to vote against a resolution supporting Ukraine.
Serbia "Mistakenly" Votes for Ukraine Resolution
🎦 49:56-50:47⏩
- Serbia, surprisingly, voted for the Ukraine resolution.
- However, Serbian President Vucic claimed this was a "mistake" and apologised to Russia.
- Jonathan is skeptical, suggesting it may be a cover-up or unclear what truly happened.
- Slovakia also voted for the resolution, adding to the unexpected voting patterns.
- The US's vote against the resolution, alongside Russia and North Korea, is again contrasted with Serbia and Slovakia's votes in favour.
Trump's "Pathetic" Non-Answer on UN Vote
🎦 50:47-53:07⏩
- Jonathan plays a clip of Trump being questioned about the US vote against the UN resolution, describing his answer as "pathetic."
- Trump's response is vague and evasive, stating "I'd rather not explain it now, I think it's self-evident, I think."
- Jonathan suggests Trump either doesn't know the details of the resolution or is embarrassed by the indefensible rationale for the US vote.
- He criticises Trump's "terrible" answer and contrasts the intense scrutiny Biden faced for minor verbal slips with Trump's ability to evade accountability for significant errors and falsehoods.
US UN Vote to Haunt Foreign Relations for Decades
🎦 53:07-53:29⏩
- Jonathan quotes Coquinezian who argues the US vote against the UN resolution will "haunt America in its foreign relations for decades," damaging international trust in the US.
Zelensky Reportedly Shouts at US Envoy over Mineral Deal
🎦 53:29-54:03⏩
- Shifting back to the mineral deal, Jonathan reports claims from the Daily Mail that Zelensky "screamed" at Trump's envoy, Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, when presented with the $500 billion mineral deal in Kyiv.
- Zelensky's anger was reportedly so loud it could be heard through the door, leaving Besant "shaking."
- Jonathan expresses approval of Zelensky's strong reaction, "Good on you, mate."
US Government Blaming Ukraine for Russian Aggression
🎦 54:03-55:14⏩
- Jonathan quotes Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, who compares the US government's victim-blaming of Ukraine to imagining a Ukrainian official blaming the US for 9/11.
- He criticises the Trump administration's narrative that Ukraine provoked Russia, or that it's NATO's or the US's fault, or Zelensky's fault, for the war.
- He emphasizes the outrageousness of victim-blaming Ukraine while they are under attack.
Channel 4 News Summary: US Split with UN Allies and Trump's Mineral Deal Focus
🎦 55:14-56:02⏩
- Jonathan plays a Channel 4 News summary highlighting the "first official split of the UN between Britain and America on the Ukraine war."
- The US "balked at condemning Russian aggression and sided with Belarus, North Korea and Sudan" in the UN vote.
- Trump "refused to call Vladimir Putin a dictator," despite calling Zelensky one, and is still pursuing the mineral deal to benefit the US.
- European leaders went to Kyiv to show solidarity, contrasting with the US position.
- Jonathan expresses disbelief at the situation, "what is going on?"
Ukrainian Perspective: US "Middle Finger" to Democratic World
🎦 56:02-56:31⏩
- Timothy Milovanov argues the US could have abstained at the UN but "chose to vote with Russia deliberately."
- This is seen as "no longer just rhetoric or political theatre" but a deliberate action, a "direct middle finger to the rest of the democratic world," at least from a Ukrainian perspective.
- Ukrainians struggle to see a brilliant strategy, instead perceiving a deal being made at Ukraine's expense.
Implications of US-Russia Deal: Carving Up Ukraine and Moving on to Europe?
🎦 56:31-57:08⏩
- Concerns are raised about the deeper implications of a potential US-Russia deal, suggesting it could involve "carving up Ukraine."
- There are fears that after Ukraine, the "newly found allies" (US and Russia) might move on to destabilize Europe, particularly Eastern Europe.
- The commentator hopes to be "over-reading and over-reacting" but finds the signs, both public and private, "hard to ignore."
- If there is a genuine strategy for peace without sacrificing Ukraine, the US "needs to prove it, and fast."
Former EU Allies in Disbelief at US Position
🎦 57:08-57:21⏩
- Former EU allies are reportedly in "disbelief" at the US position, highlighting the growing rift between the US and traditional allies.
- The clash over the mineral deal and security guarantees is seen as part of a larger confrontation, with the US and Russia appearing "aligned against the rest of the West."
- Jonathan confirms he does not think this is an "overreaction," validating the concerns raised.
US Lawmaker Condemns Trump's Russia Alignment
🎦 57:21-59:27⏩
- Jonathan highlights a "barnstorming" speech by a Vermont representative, Bailint, condemning the US alignment with Russia and North Korea in the UN vote.
- The lawmaker emphasizes Russia as the aggressor, Putin's responsibility for the war and suffering, and expresses shame at US siding with dictatorships.
- Jasmine Crockett, a Texas representative, is also quoted, stating "Never in our history has the US voted with dictatorships at the expense of our democratic allies. That is until today."
- She accuses Trump of ruining US credibility and setting back the fight for democratic values.
Newsnight Analysis: "Might is Right" Hegemony Driving Trump Administration
- Newsnight analysis suggests the Trump administration is driven by a "might is right" philosophy, believing bullies "can call the shots."
- They see the world through a lens of hegemonic power, jumbling together economics, security, tech, and trade policy.
- This approach is being applied to Ukraine, as with everything else.
- Trump's rhetoric equating Zelensky with Putin and denying Russian aggression is highlighted.
- However, a "silver lining" is that this US approach may force Europe and the UK to "wake up" and take more responsibility for their own defence and military capabilities, shifting focus beyond outdated military approaches.
Trump Claims Ukrainian Culture Destroyed - False
- Jonathan addresses another Trump statement: "The whole Ukrainian culture is destroyed."
- He refutes this as false, stating "Ukrainian culture is flourishing and is stronger than ever."
- He describes such "throw away comments" as "ignorant and not helpful at all."
Trump Administration Considering Eliminating US Africa Command (AFRICOM)
- Jonathan reports the Trump administration is considering eliminating US Africa Command (AFRICOM) or downgrading it to a sub-command under EUCOM, as part of downsizing efforts.
- This is seen as counterproductive, especially as Russia is increasing its influence in Africa.
- Critics argue this move will signal weakness and encourage African countries to cooperate more with Russia and China, ceding control of rare earth minerals to Putin and Xi.
Anne Applebaum: Putin's Strategy to Win in Allies' Minds
- Jonathan discusses Anne Applebaum's Atlantic article, "Putin's three years of humiliation."
- Applebaum argues Putin cannot win militarily but can win by persuading Ukraine's allies to "betray it" or by playing the long game until allies become "bored" or "tired."
- This long game strategy is now succeeding with the US and potentially South Korea tiring of supporting Ukraine.
- Trump's statement about Zelensky having "no cards" and being "sick of it" is seen as revealing Trump's boredom with the war, lack of understanding, and desire to "change the channel."
- Applebaum argues Putin's only path to victory is to make Ukraine's allies "sick of the war," leading to them cutting off support, which is Putin's strategy.
- Putin's disinformation and propaganda efforts aim to "win in the minds of voters" in allied countries, as this is more effective than military victory.
Peter Zion: Trump's "Negotiating Incompetence" and Damaging US Alliances
- Jonathan plays a Peter Zion clip analysing Trump's damaging impact on US alliances and intelligence capabilities.
- Zion argues Trump has "stressed America's alliance system to an extreme" and made decisions "bent to the Russian will."
- Trump targeted the CIA early in his term, removing senior staff involved in threat detection and briefing on Russia.
- Trump prefers an inner circle lacking competence and dissenting opinions, leading to a "hostile relationship" with intelligence agencies.
- Trump's "anti-DEI" orders are disrupting military recruitment, hindering efforts to attract diverse talent needed for a technologically advanced military, benefiting Russia.
- These actions are described as "negotiating incompetence" on a scale not seen since Obama's Iran deal, with both administrations seemingly wanting to disengage from complex issues.
Peter Zion: US Abrogating NATO Commitments and Munich Analogy
- Zion highlights Defense Secretary Hagseth's statements at the Munich Security Conference: NATO will never admit Ukraine, US forces will never be on the ground, and it's a European responsibility outside of NATO.
- Hagseth implied that if Russia attacks European forces in Ukraine, NATO and the US would not get involved, effectively "abrogating Article 5 as far as Ukraine is concerned."
- This is described as a "sellout" and a betrayal of NATO's founding purpose to guard against Moscow.
- Zion draws a parallel to Munich, where Western appeasement of a dictator set the stage for a larger war.
- He predicts this US approach will lead to a war in the plains of Europe between Russia and Central Europeans, expressing disappointment that his previously hoped-for optimistic view is being disproven.
Bernie Sanders and Dan Crenshaw Criticize Trump
- Jonathan mentions Bernie Sanders' strong criticism of Trump's Russia stance and oligarchy.
- He also notes Dan Crenshaw's critique of Tucker Carlson's pro-Russia views, highlighting Crenshaw's dismissal of Carlson's opinions and sarcastic remark about Carlson praising Russian grocery stores.
- Jonathan expresses approval of Crenshaw's approach to criticizing Carlson.
UK Bus Stop Advert Mocking Elon Musk and Tesla
- Jonathan shares an image of a UK bus stop advert mocking Elon Musk and Tesla, depicting Musk with a "Zika" salute alongside a Tesla logo modified with a swastika.
- He praises the advert as "absolutely brilliant" and effectively connecting Musk and Tesla to Nazi imagery in a short timeframe.
Missing the Era of Clear US Support for Ukraine
- Jonathan expresses nostalgia for the time when Antony Blinken, Biden's Secretary of State, showed clear US support for Ukraine, contrasting it with the current uncertainty under Trump.
- He recalls Blinken playing with a Ukrainian band, symbolising US solidarity.
- While acknowledging the Biden administration's potential shortcomings (escalation management), he emphasizes that "you knew they were morally and politically in the right place," which he says cannot be said now.
Ukrainian Reflection: US No Longer Symbol of Freedom and Strength
- Jonathan concludes with a poignant statement from Ukrainian Mikhailo Lavrovsky: "like many Ukrainians, I once saw the US as the ultimate symbol of freedom and strength. I thought Ukraine was far behind. I was wrong. We walked through fire, only to realise what we were looking for wasn't across the ocean. It was always here. In us."
- This quote encapsulates the disillusionment of some Ukrainians with the US's current stance and a newfound sense of self-reliance and strength within Ukraine itself.
Wrap up
- Jonathan concludes the video.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No queries - I understood everything in the transcript and tasks.
