Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"It must be so, they must have to think so hard about where they park up HIMARS and whether they can because there's so many drones in the air… as soon as that mouse…takes a breather, the cat will pounce."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:58⏩
Jonathan is back after working hard to edit his upcoming video diary about his experiences in Ukraine. He's aiming to release it to channel members soon.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:58-03:05⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reports significant Russian losses, including 1,250 personnel, 21 tanks, 40 armoured personnel vehicles, and 50 artillery systems. They also report the loss of the warship Sergei Kotov and 56 vehicles and fuel tanks. Jonathan highlights that 28 of the lost vehicles were Desert Cross 1003 "golf cart" buggies, which the Russians are increasingly using in frontal assaults, possibly due to heavy equipment losses or because their low profile makes them less likely to trigger mines.
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Frontline Update: Intense fighting in the Donbas
🎦 03:05-05:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the heavy fighting around Avdiivka, Berdychi and Tonjenka, noting that while the Ukrainians have suffered losses, including three Abrams tanks, the Russians are taking the brunt of the casualties and equipment losses. He speculates that the Ukrainian forces may be starting to receive more artillery ammunition, citing reports of increased counter-battery fire and the use of cluster munitions. He also references Andrew Perpetua's analysis, which suggests a four-to-one loss ratio in favour of the Ukrainians.
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Debate over Ukrainian Airframe Shoot-Down Claims
🎦 05:25-09:03⏩
Jonathan addresses the debate surrounding Ukrainian claims of shooting down 13 Russian aircraft in recent weeks, with some analysts suggesting the actual number is closer to five. While acknowledging the possibility of some exaggeration, he argues that visually confirmed shoot-downs often take time to be verified, particularly those occurring far behind enemy lines. He highlights previous instances where downed Russian aircraft were only discovered months later. Jonathan also points to a change in Russian air activity following periods of increased shoot-downs, with reports suggesting a significant decrease in sorties, followed by a return to previous levels. This behaviour pattern, he argues, further supports the likelihood of Ukrainian claims being more accurate than some analysts suggest.
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Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 09:03-12:01⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, highlighting the destruction of another S-300 launcher and command post - the third within a week. He speculates that the timing of the strikes is unclear and that the Russians may be releasing older footage to control the narrative and downplay Ukrainian successes. He also notes the loss of a HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, which he believes was likely taken out by a Russian Iskander missile, possibly using Krasnopol laser-guided munitions.
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The Significance of the Sergei Kotov Sinking
🎦 12:01-13:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the sinking of the Russian warship Sergei Kotov, valued at $65 million. He praises the work of open-source intelligence (OSINT) researchers in geolocating the incident, which occurred south of the Kerch Bridge. While acknowledging the loss of a HIMARS and a Bradley fighting vehicle, he emphasizes that the destruction of the Sergei Kotov is a major blow to the Russians.
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The Psychological Impact of HIMARS Losses
🎦 13:19-16:43⏩
Jonathan delves into the psychological impact of the confirmed HIMARS loss, acknowledging it as a significant event but cautioning against overstating its importance. He argues that HIMARS, while highly effective, are not irreplaceable and that their loss should be viewed in the context of their intended role as a replacement for traditional artillery. He emphasizes that the Ukrainians possess other similar systems and that the loss of one HIMARS does not cripple their capabilities.
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Comparing S-300 and HIMARS Losses
🎦 16:43-17:45⏩
Jonathan emphasizes that the loss of the S-300 system is far more critical than that of a HIMARS, both in terms of capability and replaceability. He suggests that the S-300's value is at least 20 times greater, given their scarcity and the limited options for replacement.
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British Intelligence Report on Russian Casualties
🎦 17:45-19:32⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent British intelligence update, highlighting that the average daily Russian casualties in February were the highest since the war began, reaching 983 per day. He notes that the UK intelligence assessment attributes this to Russia's commitment to attritional warfare, which, while costly in terms of human life, has increased pressure on Ukrainian positions. The update estimates that Russia has likely lost over 355,000 personnel killed or wounded. Jonathan points out that this figure, while significantly lower than the Ukrainian General Staff’s estimate of 420,000, still indicates a substantial loss for Russia.
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The Impact of Ukrainian Naval Drone Warfare
🎦 19:32-21:33⏩
Jonathan revisits the sinking of the Sergei Kotov, emphasizing the strategic success of Ukrainian naval drone warfare. He highlights that while the Russian Black Sea Fleet remains formidable, Ukrainian actions have forced a change in their behaviour, limiting their operations and demonstrating the effectiveness of these relatively low-cost drones in shaping the naval battlefield.
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Reports of Increased Ukrainian Artillery Ammunition
🎦 21:33-23:27⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from both Ukrainian and Russian sources suggesting an increase in Ukrainian artillery ammunition reaching the frontlines. This is indicated by accounts of more aggressive counter-battery fire and the use of heavier artillery pieces, such as CAESAR howitzers, which were previously employed more sparingly due to ammunition constraints.
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Russian Iskander Missile Strike Destroys Ukrainian S-300
🎦 23:27-25:11⏩
Jonathan analyses the destruction of the Ukrainian S-300PS battery, confirming it was hit by a Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile. He highlights that the S-300's static nature made it vulnerable to such an attack, as it would have required the system to be stationary for an extended period for the Russians to target it effectively.
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Discussing the Vulnerability of Stationary Targets
🎦 25:11-27:09⏩
Jonathan speculates on the reasons behind the recent spike in Ukrainian losses of high-value assets like the S-300 and HIMARS. He considers the possibility of the Ukrainians becoming bolder in their deployment of these systems, potentially leaving them exposed to Russian strikes. He also considers whether the Russians have improved their intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, allowing them to locate and target these assets more effectively. Finally, he acknowledges the possibility that the Russians could be releasing older footage of these strikes, creating the illusion of a recent surge in their effectiveness.
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Russian Claims of Multiple HIMARS Destructions Dismissed
🎦 27:09-27:41⏩
Jonathan dismisses Russian claims of destroying three HIMARS launchers, pointing out inconsistencies in the visual evidence presented. He suggests the Russians are attempting to inflate their successes and mislead audiences.
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Russian Assault Groups Struggle in Bakhmut; Ukrainian Counter Battery Fire Effective
🎦 27:41-29:25⏩
Jonathan cites reports from WarTranslated, highlighting the struggles faced by Russian assault groups near Bakhmut, particularly in Bakhmut. A Russian military instructor attributed these setbacks to a lack of artillery support, which left the assault groups vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks. He also mentions reports indicating that Russian electronic warfare (EW) efforts are inadvertently interfering with their own drone operations, further hindering their ability to provide effective support to ground troops.
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The Evolving Role of Russian Aviation and Artillery
🎦 29:25-31:09⏩
Jonathan delves into the apparent contradiction between reports of successful Ukrainian counter-battery fire and claims that Russian artillery remains highly active. He proposes that while Russian artillery is still a factor, its volume and intensity have likely decreased significantly since the early stages of the war. He suggests that the Russians may be compensating for this decline by relying more heavily on aviation assets, which are being used to strike Ukrainian positions and infrastructure that were previously targeted primarily by artillery.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks Target Ukrainian Cities and Infrastructure
🎦 31:09-33:06⏩
Jonathan reports a significant wave of overnight drone and missile attacks, with Ukraine reporting the launch of 42 Shahed-136 drones. While Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted the majority, shooting down 38, four drones got through, inflicting damage on civilian infrastructure.
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Ukraine Retaliates with Drone Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 33:06-35:09⏩
In apparent retaliation for the Russian strikes, Jonathan reports that Ukraine launched retaliatory drone strikes on targets within Russia, including Kursk and Voronezh. He details an attack on the Mikhailiv mining and processing plant in Kursk, which resulted in fuel tankers and an oil reservoir catching fire, causing significant damage to one of Russia's largest iron ore processing facilities. He also notes an explosion at a thermal power plant in Tyva, although the cause remains unconfirmed.
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Fluctuating Russian Airstrike Activity
🎦 35:09-36:46⏩
Jonathan revisits the topic of Russian airstrike activity, noting conflicting reports about the frequency of sorties. He cites a Ukrainian soldier's account of a noticeable decline in Russian air activity, but acknowledges that this could be a temporary lull rather than a sustained change in tactics.
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Other News: ICC Issues Arrest Warrants, Repression in Russia, and Fire in Kyiv Eco Park
🎦 36:46-40:07⏩
Jonathan covers several other news items:
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Russian military commanders Lieutenant General Sergei Koblyash and Admiral Viktor Sokolov for alleged war crimes. However, he notes that Sokolov is believed to have been killed in a previous strike.
- Jonathan expresses concern over the use of facial recognition technology by Russian authorities to identify and detain individuals who attended Alexei Navalny's funeral.
- A large fire broke out at the Oskorki Eco Park in Kyiv, causing significant damage.
US Expresses Confidence in Ukraine's Battlefield Plans
🎦 40:07-40:26⏩
Jonathan highlights a statement by US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, who expressed confidence in Ukraine's ability to achieve victories on the battlefield. Miller hinted at Ukraine having "surprises" in store, suggesting they may be preparing new offensive operations or have received advanced weaponry that has yet to be publicly revealed.
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Footage of Ukrainian Mi-8 Helicopter Rocket Attacks
🎦 40:26-42:38⏩
Jonathan concludes by sharing footage of two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters conducting unguided rocket attacks against Russian positions, likely in the Avdiivka area. While acknowledging the effectiveness of such attacks in suppressing enemy fire and targeting dispersed forces, he expresses skepticism about their accuracy.
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Wrap up
🎦 42:38-42:49⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He acknowledges the lengthy runtime and signs off.
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