Ukraine War Update NEWS/ANALYSIS: Military Aid News, "Where We're At" Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"They [China & India] would rather Russia fall apart than nukes get used."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for 31st May 2024.
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Jonathan's "Where we're at" Analysis
🎦 00:12-04:26⏩
Jonathan observes there is a sense that the "screw is turning" in Ukraine's favour, despite the immense difficulties they face. He acknowledges a sense of unease, questioning whether he is being overly optimistic. He cautions against focusing solely on minor gains and losses on the front lines, advocating for a broader strategic perspective. This involves analysing factors like economic production, international support for both sides, and future production capacities. Jonathan highlights Russia's precarious situation with regard to manpower, labour, economics and industrial capacity.
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US Relaxes Rules on use of Western Weapons in Russia
🎦 04:26-08:42⏩
Jonathan discusses the US decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons in the Kharkiv region to strike Russian territory, marking a shift in policy. He criticises the public debate surrounding the issue, arguing it empowers Russia to portray the move as escalatory and crossing a "red line". He asserts this should have been the default position from the outset. He argues that the move will likely be extended to other regions in due course. Jonathan highlights that Russia's only remaining leverage is its nuclear arsenal, but using this would alienate China and India. He observes that the French and Dutch governments have made similar statements, permitting the use of their weapons by Ukraine inside Russia in self-defence.
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UK Position on Strikes inside Russia
🎦 07:46-08:42⏩
Jonathan addresses the ambiguity surrounding the UK's stance on using UK-supplied weapons for strikes within Russia. He notes Zelensky's statement that the UK has not given "100% admission" for such use of Storm Shadow missiles, despite reports. Jonathan calls for clarity from the UK government, expressing confidence they will likely align with the US, Netherlands and France.
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Viewer Question: Ukraine's Long Range Strike Capabilities
🎦 08:42-13:05⏩
Responding to a viewer query regarding Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, Jonathan lists various systems:
- Cruise Missiles: Storm Shadow and Scalp-EG (range up to 300km)
- ATACMS (range up to 300km)
- Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems: (range from 0 to 300km)
- Drones: UK-supplied attack drones used inside Russia
- Artillery Rounds: Some with a range up to 70km (Vulcan/Volcano)
- Self-Propelled Guns: Caesar, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Zuzana, Archer (longer range than older systems like AS-90)
- HARM Missiles (Anti-Radiation missiles, likely permitted for use in Russia)
Jonathan suggests targeting Russian S-300 and S-400 air defence systems, particularly those near Belgorod, to degrade their ability to strike Kharkiv.
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Degrading Russia's Military Capabilities
🎦 13:05-15:25⏩
Jonathan elaborates on the types of Russian targets Ukraine should prioritise to degrade their military capabilities:
- Radars: Targeting long-range radar systems disrupts their ability to track Ukrainian movements
- Communication Equipment: Disrupting communication networks hinders Russian coordination
- Air Defence Batteries: Eliminating launchers, command and control nodes, and other components weakens their air defences.
- Troop Accumulations: Striking barracks and training centres disrupts troop readiness and morale
- Supply Depots: Destroying ammunition and fuel depots hampers Russian logistical operations
- Airbases: Targeting airbases and associated infrastructure limits their airpower projection capabilities
- Railway Depots: Disrupting railway infrastructure hinders Russian logistical movements
Example Strike in Luhansk
🎦 15:25-16:18⏩
Jonathan cites a recent strike in Luhansk near an airbase as an example of effective targeting. He explains that while the airbase itself wasn't hit, the strike successfully destroyed high-value radar systems like the RLM-M, RLM-D, and possibly a NEBO-M, significantly degrading Russian capabilities in the area.
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"Turning of the Screw" - Sabotage, Accidents, Fires in Russia
🎦 16:18-17:00⏩
Jonathan highlights a series of incidents in Russia, including a train derailment in the Amur region, fires, drone attacks on refineries and manufacturing facilities. He suggests these events contribute to a sense that the situation is tightening around Russia, putting pressure on their ability to sustain the war effort.
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Analysis of US/Western Support for Ukraine
🎦 17:00-22:10⏩
Jonathan analyses Western support for Ukraine, referencing comments from a viewer named Tendai. While acknowledging disappointment that the US hasn't completely lifted restrictions on weapons use, he remains optimistic about the overall trajectory. He argues that Western reluctance stems from a fear of escalation, but Russia's actions have exposed the hollowness of their threats. Tendai highlights the significance of China and India's warnings to Russia against using nuclear weapons, suggesting they prioritize global stability over supporting Putin's regime. Their stance is influenced by concerns over food security, as a nuclear conflict would jeopardize global food supplies. Jonathan emphasizes that China and India's stance effectively negates Russia's "red lines". Jonathan concludes that Western hesitation is gradually diminishing as they recognise the futility of appeasing Russia, advocating for bolder and faster action to support Ukraine's victory.
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Mark Biernacki's "Russian Economic Game"
🎦 22:10-29:12⏩
Jonathan discusses an economic simulation game, the "Russian Economic Game", created by Mark Biernacki. This game models Russia's industrial capacity, production costs and timelines for various military units, factoring in aid from allies like China, North Korea, and Iran. The game's results, according to Jonathan, indicate a bleak outlook for Russia. Their stockpiles, particularly of artillery, are dwindling and their ability to replenish them is limited. The game highlights their reliance on outdated equipment and their inability to sustain the current level of conflict over an extended period.
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NATO to Increase Military Aid to Ukraine
🎦 29:12-30:06⏩
Jonathan reports that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg plans to propose an increase in annual military aid to Ukraine to 40 billion euros.
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Ukraine to Receive Frozen Russian Assets
🎦 30:06-30:41⏩
Ukraine is set to receive the first tranche of revenue generated from frozen Russian assets this summer. This move will bolster Ukraine's resources while simultaneously depriving Russia of funds that could have been used for their war effort. Jonathan describes this as a significant development.
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Poland Prepares New Military Aid Package
🎦 30:41-31:47⏩
Jonathan reports that Poland is currently preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, signalling their continued support. He notes that despite a change in government in Poland, both the previous and current administrations have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine.
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Czech Artillery Initiative Facing Funding Delays
🎦 31:47-33:22⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over delays in funding for the Czech Artillery Ammunition Initiative. Despite commitments from 20 countries, only 5 (Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Canada) have delivered payments. This delay hampers the initiative's ability to secure ammunition, potentially allowing Russia to acquire it instead.
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Ukraine to Receive 100,000 Artillery Shells in June
🎦 32:50-33:22⏩
Despite funding challenges, Ukraine is expected to receive between 50,000 and 100,000 artillery shells in June through the Czech initiative, providing much-needed ammunition.
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US Pledges 1 Million Artillery Shells to Ukraine
🎦 33:22-34:24⏩
Jonathan reports that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has pledged 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of 2024. These shells will be sourced from various international markets, presenting logistical challenges. Jonathan emphasises that this pledge is in addition to existing commitments from other nations, including supplies from their stockpiles and newly produced ammunition.
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France Admits Insufficient Ammunition Production
🎦 34:24-35:53⏩
Jonathan notes that France has acknowledged their limited ammunition production, particularly specialised shells for the Caesar howitzer, which are highly sought after by Ukraine. While France has doubled production, it remains insufficient to meet demand. Jonathan questions whether their focus on high-quality ammunition justifies the low quantity provided. He humorously compares this situation to previous criticisms of German aid, recounting how Taurus Systems, the manufacturer of the Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile, urged people not to blame them for the German government's reluctance to supply the weapon to Ukraine.
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Increased HIMARS Ammunition Reaching Ukraine
🎦 35:53-36:31⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote from a Ukrainian source indicating a significant increase in HIMARS ammunition deliveries. This, coupled with the relaxed rules of engagement, suggests a potential increase in HIMARS strikes on targets within Russia, particularly in the Belgorod region.
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Lithuania Joins Air Defence Coalition, to Provide Radars & Training
🎦 36:31-37:56⏩
Jonathan reports that Lithuania has joined the air defence coalition led by Germany, France, and the US, pledging to provide Ukraine with mobile air surveillance radars. This contribution aims to enhance Ukraine's early warning capabilities against Russian air threats. Additionally, Lithuania has pledged to send military instructors to Ukraine, joining a coalition of trainers proposed by France, to support the training of Ukrainian forces.
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Germany's Military Aid Package
🎦 37:56-39:26⏩
During a visit to Kyiv, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius pledged 19 million euros for the refurbishment of 19 Spanish Leopard 2A4 tanks, which will be delivered to Ukraine this year. Additionally, Germany has pledged a new military aid package worth 500 million euros, including:
- IRIS-T SLM short-range and a small number IRIS-T SLM missiles
- Reconnaissance Drones
- Spare parts for Panzerhaubitze 2000s
- Engines and spare parts for Leopard 2 tanks
- 1 million rounds of small arms ammunition
- Funding for interference-free satellite communications
Rheinmetall Secures Order for Panzerhaubitze 2000 Barrels
🎦 39:26-40:08⏩
Jonathan highlights Rheinmetall's recent announcement that they have secured an order from a "European customer country" for a "three-digit number" of L52 gun barrels for the Panzerhaubitze 2000. Deliveries are scheduled between 2024 and 2029. He emphasizes that producing these barrels is a time-consuming process due to their size and complexity, highlighting the long-term investment in artillery capabilities.
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Swedish AWACS Aircraft for Ukraine
🎦 40:08-40:56⏩
Jonathan discusses Sweden's decision to provide Ukraine with two Saab 890 GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control (AWACS) aircraft. These aircraft significantly enhance Ukraine's ability to detect and track Russian aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones at long range (300-400km) and are intended to be integrated with the F-16 fighter jets. Jonathan clarifies that the effective range of the radar decreases the lower the aircraft has to fly.
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Russian Concerns over F-16 Deliveries
🎦 40:56-43:21⏩
Jonathan highlights Russian anxieties regarding the potential delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. A Russian source acknowledges the significant threat posed by the F-16's ability to strike both close-range and long-range targets using a variety of munitions, including JDAMs, GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs, and AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles. The source expresses concern over potential attacks on refineries, airfields, warehouses, air defence positions, infrastructure, and industrial facilities. The Russian analysis notes that Ukraine's air capabilities would significantly improve even with a gradual introduction of F-16s, given the limited number of operational Sukhoi Su-24s.
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Ukraine Increasing Troop Numbers
🎦 43:21-44:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is actively working to increase its troop numbers, with 2,402 petitions from convicts seeking release from prison for military service submitted to the courts. So far, 1,843 petitions have been granted, and 775 convicts have already joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
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Wrap Up
🎦 44:17-44:54⏩
Jonathan concludes by acknowledging the lengthy video due to the significant amount of information. He thanks viewers for watching, encourages attendance at his upcoming talk in Andover, Hampshire on June 15th, and promotes a drone initiative to support Ukraine.
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