Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231112a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"I've devoted my entire life to the defense of Ukraine"
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest Ukraine war news update for 12th November 2023. He notes it was a relatively quiet night with not a great amount of news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian general staff figures show massive Russian losses in several categories, particularly personnel (1,100 - one of the highest single day losses of the war)
- 70% of losses are reportedly taking place in the Avdiivka area due to the "third wave" of Russian attacks
- 32 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) lost is a massive number, likely due to infantry-led attacks delivered by APVs
- APVs are being hit en route to the front lines, causing huge losses
- 32 artillery systems lost is also a massive number, showing degradation of this key category across front lines
- 9 pieces of special equipment lost is high, likely made up of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and electronic warfare (EW) equipment
Lopsided Russian Losses
Andrew Perpetua hasn't released his list of Russian equipment losses over the last 24 hours, stating "the losses I found today are so stupidly lopsided that I don't even want to publish them". Jonathan believes this indicates the Russians have lost significantly more equipment than the Ukrainians.
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Russian Colonel Killed
The chief of staff of the 810th Russian Marine Brigade, Colonel Yan Sukhanov, died in Moscow on November 8th after being mortally wounded in Krinki, left-bank Kherson, where the brigade is currently fighting. This indicates the level of control Ukrainians have in the area if such a high-ranking officer was hit.
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Analysis of Kherson Situation
Russian serviceman volunteer Mertz provides an analysis of the situation in Kherson:
- The enemy (Russia) will continue active offensive actions before the next mobilization
- A bridgehead was created in an area poorly covered by weak Russian troops, with positions weaker in reality than on paper
- The bridgehead aims to pull in and destroy as many Russian combat-ready units as possible from other areas like Robotina
- When all arriving troops are drawn into the fight, a blow will follow in another place where the enemy finds weakness
- In these battles, Russia will again lose many experienced people due to the country's leadership delaying adoption of inevitable unpopular measures
Electronic Warfare Systems Destroyed
In the Avdiivka area, Ukrainian special forces discovered and destroyed two Russian electronic warfare systems (R-330 and R-934 Boryuglebsk-2) using artillery. These are high value targets that degrade Russian EW capabilities. If Ukraine can gain an aerial/drone warfare advantage in Avdiivka, it will really help in defending against Russian attacks.
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Elon Musk Controversy
In a recent interview, Elon Musk made comments attacking and victim-blaming Ukraine, saying they should stop sending people to die in the trenches. He said nothing about Russia's role in starting and prolonging the war. This has angered many people, with accusations that Musk is promoting Kremlin propaganda and pushing for Ukraine's surrender while ignoring Russia's atrocities. Jonathan expresses his own annoyance at Musk's comments and the spread of such disinformation.
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Nord Stream Pipeline Attack
The Washington Post and Der Spiegel report that a senior Ukrainian military officer, Colonel Roman Chavinsky, played a key role in coordinating the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline in September 2022. However, Jonathan questions the provenance and quality of evidence provided in the article, noting the reliance on anonymous sources and circular reasoning. The article claims Chavinsky took orders from senior Ukrainian officials ultimately reporting to General Valeri Zeluzhny. Zeluzhny denied Ukrainian involvement when asked by US General Milley. Some defend the attack as being in Ukraine's interest by keeping Russia from profiting off gas sales and using it for political leverage. Chavinsky himself stated "I've devoted my entire life to the defense of Ukraine". He is currently being held on separate charges related to a July 2022 operation.
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Frontline Blood Transfusions
In a significant development, the first successful blood transfusion was performed in a trench by the 12th Brigade NGU, saving a wounded soldier's life. This comes after two years of efforts to change legislation and train medics. It's seen as a strategically important event that will help save many more lives in the war.
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Wrap up
Jonathan wraps up this first part of the update, asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He expresses appreciation for all the support.
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