UK Politics Extra: Strategic Defence Review - What Our Armed Forces Need To Be
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:34⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, introducing it as a UK Politics Extra. He explains that the video will cover the recently released Strategic Defence Review, a 38,000-word document outlining the UK's military, strategic, and geopolitical position, focusing on national security needs and defence spending. He highlights its relevance not only to the UK but also to Europe, NATO, and Ukraine.
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Introduction to the UK Strategic Defence Review
🎦 00:04-01:15⏩
Jonathan explains that the Strategic Defence Review will likely involve "military Keynesianism," where defence spending stimulates the economy. He suggests this approach should be integrated into the economic plans of entities like the EU, arguing that military strategy and economic strategy must go hand in hand. He notes that while some view the EU solely as an economic bloc, he believes these elements are inseparable.
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Economic Strategy and Defence Spending
🎦 01:15-02:46⏩
Jonathan raises the critical question of how the UK will fund its increased defence spending. He points out that tax rises would contradict government promises, and suggests there are rumours of further cuts to international aid, which is controversial as such cuts have already occurred. He mentions that international aid is ring-fenced in UK law, but past instances show it can be circumvented. The core of the review, he explains, is the formal recognition of Russia as a threat.
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Keir Starmer's Address: Pledging 'Warfighting Readiness'
🎦 02:49-04:30⏩
Jonathan introduces a five-minute segment of Keir Starmer's address from a BAE Systems facility in Scotland. Starmer pledges three fundamental changes, with the first being a move to "warfighting readiness" as the central purpose of the UK armed forces. Jonathan notes the significance of this statement, indicating a serious shift towards preparing for conflict and deterring threats from states with advanced military forces through strength.
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Investment in Armed Forces Personnel and Accommodation (£1.5 billion)
🎦 04:32-06:36⏩
Starmer's address also highlights improvements in military pay and accommodation, aiming to deliver the biggest armed forces pay rise in 20 years and end the "hollowing out" of the forces. Jonathan, drawing on his family's Navy background, explains the historical underinvestment in "married quarters" (military accommodation). He stresses that attracting new recruits and retaining existing personnel requires attractive "soft benefits" beyond just pay. The plan includes a £1.5 billion investment to improve military accommodation, focusing on 1,000 severely affected homes.
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UK Defence Policy: NATO First
🎦 06:44-08:52⏩
Starmer's second key point is a "NATO first" policy, aiming for Britain's largest contribution to NATO since its creation. Jonathan interprets this as a direct response to, and rejection of, the previous American administration's (under Trump) attempts to move away from, or denigrate, NATO. He emphasizes that the UK, no longer an imperialistic nation, recognises it must fight alongside allies within NATO. This approach ensures UK capabilities strengthen allies and maintain the bridge to the US as Britain's primary defence partner.
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Defence Innovation and Lethality Target by 2035
🎦 08:53-10:04⏩
The third change outlined by Starmer is accelerating innovation at a "wartime pace" to meet current and future threats, aiming for the UK to be the fastest innovator in NATO. This includes seamlessly integrating capabilities like drones, destroyers, AI, and aircraft across all armed services. Starmer ambitiously aims to create an army "ten times more lethal by 2035," a claim Jonathan finds "bombastic" and difficult to quantify, but highlights the strong rhetoric.
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Defence Spending as Economic Stimulus (Military Keynesianism)
🎦 10:31-11:15⏩, 16:59-17:17⏩
Starmer concludes his address by linking defence investment to economic renewal, creating jobs, skills, and industrial capacity across the country. Jonathan identifies this as "military Keynesianism"—using government defence spending to generate economic growth and prosperity for the nation. He notes that the government is seeking both economic growth and security, with these ideas being central to the review.
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Political Context: Conservative vs Labour Defence Spending
🎦 11:15-12:16⏩
Jonathan highlights a point made by Paul Mason, a Labour supporter, that the Strategic Defence Review marks the start of British rearmament, aiming to correct "14 years of military austerity." Jonathan points out the noteworthy fact that the Conservatives, often seen as the pro-national security party, cut defence spending by £2 billion in their first year, whereas Labour has pledged to increase it. He suggests this demonstrates Labour's commitment, despite the ongoing question of funding.
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Strategic Defence Review Development and Quality
🎦 12:16-12:38⏩
Jonathan praises the Strategic Defence Review, noting that Labour has enlisted "really good people" from across various fields to contribute to its development. He believes that the review is a "fairly quality document," implying that the Labour government is reacting to well-informed recommendations.
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Key Defence Investments: New Factories, Weapons, Naval and Nuclear Capabilities
🎦 12:38-15:49⏩
Starmer details specific defence investments:
- Construction of at least six new munitions factories, creating over 1,000 jobs and boosting European deterrence.
- Production of thousands of new long-range weapons, supporting around 800 jobs.
- Investment in air and missile defence for homeland protection.
- Creation of a hybrid Royal Navy combining drones with warships, submarines, and aircraft, supporting thousands of shipbuilding jobs, including in Govan.
- Delivery of up to 12 attack submarines under the AUKUS alliance, aiming for a new submarine every 18 months and scaling up the industrial base in Barrow. Jonathan clarifies these are nuclear submarines, which are currently the UK's sole method of nuclear deterrence.
- A newly identified area of concern is the lack of air-launched nuclear missiles, with the review suggesting investment in nuclear-capable fighter jets (like the F-35 variant) or awaiting the development of the Tempest programme.
- Investment in drone capabilities and battlefield technology, providing better kit and housing for service personnel.
- A £15 billion investment in the sovereign warhead programme, securing deterrence for decades and creating 9,000 jobs. Jonathan queries whether this indicates a move away from US dependence or focuses on air-launched capabilities.
Marrying Patriotism with Economic Growth and Security
🎦 16:15-17:29⏩
Jonathan observes that Starmer's speech effectively intertwines patriotism with the economy, using military Keynesianism to drive economic growth through defence spending. He highlights that the "through lines" of the review are economic growth, security, and alliances, alongside technical details for each armed forces branch.
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Defence Spending Targets (2% by 2027, 3% long-term) and Opposition Criticism
🎦 17:29-19:57⏩
Criticisms of the review focus on the timing and lack of a definite timeframe for increasing defence spending to 3% of GDP, although a 2% target by 2027 is mentioned. Opposition parties, including Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives, demand a firmer commitment to the 3% target. Jonathan notes that such criticisms are easy to make, but the challenge lies in securing the necessary funding. The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) director, Paul Johnson, suggests that welfare plans and high defence spending will likely necessitate "chunky tax increases." Jonathan stresses that while defence expenditure aims to stimulate economic growth and thus higher tax receipts, the initial funding source remains a key problem, likely requiring tax hikes or further cuts to international aid.
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UK's 'Battle-Ready' Status and War Economy Distinction
🎦 19:57-20:39⏩
Jonathan discusses the implication of the UK vowing to become "battle-ready." He clarifies that this does not imply a move to a "war economy," but rather represents a longer-term strategic outlook for the armed forces, deeply intertwined with fostering economic growth.
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Additional Strategic Defence Review Focus Areas
🎦 20:42-22:45⏩
Jonathan highlights further areas of consideration in the Strategic Defence Review, as reported in the 'I' newspaper:
- Boosting cyber defences, an area Jonathan deems "super important" despite not being heavily featured in Starmer's speech.
- Nuclear-powered attack submarines as part of the AUKUS alliance.
- New munitions factories, reinforcing support for Ukraine and European production.
- Nuclear-capable fighter jets.
- Boosting troop numbers.
- Protection from underwater threats, such as cabling and offshore wind farms, vulnerable to Russian sabotage efforts.
- Consideration of a new home guard, similar to those in Denmark, Germany, and Sweden, akin to the World War II concept.
- New fighting methods, emphasising the integration of drones and other technologies.
- The idea of building a UK Iron Dome for air defence, which is more feasible for a smaller country like the UK compared to the US. Jonathan points out that currently, the Royal Navy provides much of the UK's air defence, raising concerns about sky protection if the Navy is deployed elsewhere.
Learning from Ukraine for UK Innovation
🎦 22:53-23:32⏩
Jonathan concludes by emphasising that the Strategic Defence Review will benefit Ukraine by acknowledging the importance of national security, NATO, and European cooperation. He highlights that the UK can learn from Ukraine, especially through its involvement in initiatives like the drone and maritime capability coalitions, to achieve the rapid innovation Starmer envisions.
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Wrap up
🎦 23:32-23:35⏩
Jonathan signs off, inviting viewers to share their thoughts on the Strategic Defence Review.
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