Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"They are insanely valuable for the, well, for either side. But they aren't crazy expensive."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update video - part one of the update for 2nd November 2024
- Jonathan apologises for being late - he's been arguing with a friend about American Politics on Facebook Messenger for the last hour
- He went to the pub last night and had a jolly good night
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff report of Russian losses (01/11/2024)
🎦 00:38-02:57⏩
- The Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are discussed (with the usual caveats)
- 1,270 personnel losses are reported - lower than recent days but still an "incredibly high number"
- Jonathan discusses how benchmarks for losses have been skewed because of the sheer scale of losses in the last year.
- 8 Russian tank losses are reported - slightly below average
- 17 Russian Armoured Personnel Carrier losses are reported - slightly below average
- 37 Russian artillery losses are reported - almost double the daily average
- 76 Russian vehicle and fuel tank losses are reported - described as "high"
- 4 pieces of Russian special equipment were lost
- Jonathan addresses a comment about combat asset losses from the previous day - specifically whether all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and buggies used by Ukraine should be included in combat losses. Jonathan acknowledges the point but says he will not be including them as they are very different in terms of value/capabilities compared to tanks and other equipment
- Overall Russian to Ukrainian loss ratio is around 3 to 1
Surveillance and Comms equipment losses (Russia/Ukraine)
🎦 02:57-05:05⏩, 05:05-10:32⏩
- Jonathan analyses the surveillance and comms equipment losses reported by both sides.
- Ukrainian losses are mainly Starlinks - these are described as "incredibly valuable and useful" but "not crazy expensive"
- Jonathan notes that the lists are not created for him so his opinion on what should be included is irrelevant
- Russian comms/surveillance losses: Starlink, Muon-M (small piece of kit), and a P-18 Radar which is described as "more significant"
- Jonathan shows a picture of the P-18 Radar for context
- Jonathan tries to establish the value of a P-18 Radar using Bing AI
Shahed Drone attacks on Ukraine
🎦 10:32-12:35⏩
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports a huge wave of Shahed drone attacks with 71 drones sent in by Russia
- 39 drones were shot down conventionally
- 21 were taken down by electronic warfare
- 5 were returned to Russia
- 5 were still in the air at the time of the report
- At least 1 hit its target
- 1 KH-31P anti-radiation missile was sent in (and not shot down)
- Jonathan speculates that this missile may have been used to take out a Ukrainian radar
- Jonathan discusses the high volume of Shahed attacks that have taken place in October noting that the infographics only show the drones that were intercepted. He suggests multiplying the numbers shown in the infographics by two to get a more accurate picture of the volume of drone attacks.
- Jonathan notes that according to a Ukrainian Air Force report, the only day in October when Russia did not attack Ukrainian cities with drones or missiles was 14th October.
- It is estimated that around 2,000 drones/missiles were sent into Ukraine during October - an average of 60 per day.
Impact of Drone/Missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv
🎦 12:35-15:44⏩
- Jonathan shares a couple of videos to illustrate the impact of the drone and missile attacks on cities such as Kyiv and Kharkiv
- The first video shows a drone flying over Kyiv and being shot down (and the sound of the air raid siren)
- Jonathan highlights that Kyiv's air defences are successful in shooting down nearly 100% of the drones but that the debris falling on the city causes its own problems
- A second video shows a similar event (drone being shot down over Kyiv)
- Air raids are lasting up to 5 hours and people's sleep patterns are being badly affected
- Debris has fallen on 6 districts in Kyiv overnight
- Kharkiv is also being attacked. Russia claims that ballistic missile strikes hit the Ukrainian National Guard Academy which it says was being used to house foreign mercenaries.
- There is no evidence to support the claim about foreign mercenaries.
- 40 people are confirmed injured in an attack on a police station in Kharkiv which Russia claims is a military base.
- 30 police officers, 9 civilians and 1 rescue worker are injured in the attack (caused by an S-400 surface to air missile used in ground attack mode)
- A video shows a double-tap strike on Kharkiv (where a bomb is dropped and then a second bomb/missile is used to target those who respond to the first attack).
- According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia has carried out at least 36 double-tap strikes against Ukraine between February 2022 and August 2023, killing over 100 people according to Ukrainian NGO Truthhounds.
- Double-tap strikes are war crimes.
Sumi attacked
🎦 15:44-16:01⏩
- Sumi was also attacked last night with various weapons.
Zelenskyy criticises lack of preemptive action against North Korean troops
🎦 16:01-17:12⏩
- Zelenskyy criticises Ukraine's partners for inaction against the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia in the war.
- He believes that preemptive strikes should be used to target the North Korean troops (and that Ukraine has the intelligence to do this).
- Ukraine is being prevented from using long-range weapons supplied by its partners (USA/Britain/Germany) to attack Russian territory.
- Zelenskyy is frustrated that a reactive approach is being used rather than a preemptive approach.
Ukraine facing Russia's most powerful offensive since start of the war
🎦 17:12-18:38⏩
- According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine is facing one of the most powerful Russian offensives since the start of the war.
- The situation on the battlefield is described as difficult, especially in Donetsk.
- Ukrainian units need constant resupply.
- There have been 126 clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces along the front line.
- Russia is pressing forward its offensives on the Eastern front in Luhansk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka
- Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned and are being forced to withdraw.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces had liberated the village of Kulykivka in mid-October which is important for the defence of Kupiansk, but there are reports that Russia has retaken it.
Zelenskyy criticises lack of response to North Korean deployment
🎦 18:38-19:28⏩
- In a recent interview, Zelenskyy criticised Ukraine's partners for failing to respond to the deployment of North Korean troops.
- He states that if Ukraine had permission to use long-range weapons supplied by the West it could preemptively target the camps where North Korean troops are gathering.
- Ukraine knows where the North Korean troops are but are unable to attack because they are not allowed to.
- Jonathan reiterates that Ukraine is facing one of the most powerful offensives since the start of the war and that it is difficult.
Ukraine troop numbers/duration of war
🎦 19:28-19:42⏩
- There are claims that Ukraine has enough troops for 6-12 months of war.
- Jonathan reflects that the war is lasting longer than many had envisaged but that it had the potential to be a long war from the outset.
- Following the successful initial defence of Ukraine, there was a belief that Ukraine would win. However, Russia's capacity to commit huge numbers of troops and equipment to the war has changed the outlook.
- Ukraine cannot match Russia in terms of equipment and personnel.
Emergency landings in Russia
🎦 19:42-20:02⏩
- Twitter user Tim White reports that there have been a number of emergency landings in Russia.
- He cites a Rossiya Airlines passenger jet flying from St Petersburg to Almaty that diverted to Moscow due to a fuel leak.
- Jonathan says this highlights the impact of sanctions on Russia's aviation sector.
US citizen admits to spying for Russia
🎦 20:02-20:41⏩
- Tim White reports that a US citizen has admitted to spying for Russia in a press conference in Moscow.
- Daniel Martindale showed his passport and says he intends to apply for Russian citizenship.
- He says he was extracted from Ukraine where he helped Russia kill citizens.
- Jonathan expresses his disgust and incomprehension at Martindale's actions.
Wrap up
🎦 20:41-20:49⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching.
- He notes that it was a shorter video than usual.
- He says he will now work on his other videos.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Who is "Lombasa West"? I was unable to understand the context (is this a person? a place? a typo?)
When Jonathan says "They know where they are, they just can't hit them" - who is "they" referring to? I think it's Ukrainian forces, but am not 100% certain.
When Jonathan says "It could preemptively target every camp where North Korean troops are gathering" who is "it" referring to? Ukraine? or Western partners?
When Jonathan says "Russia continues to press forward its offensives across the Eastern Front, primarily in Kuret, Krakow, Prokofsk directions" - I think this is a typo? I believe "Kuret" should be "Kupiansk" (but I wasn't 100% certain so have left it as it is in the transcript).
When Jonathan says "In Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces liberated and cleared out in mid-October The village of Kulia Kivka" I think this is a typo and should be "Kurylivka"
When Jonathan says "They speculate it was turned into a temporary housing for foreign mercenaries and at least 40 have been killed" who is "they" referring to?
When Jonathan says "And then we have a double tap strike I did have that Where has it gone? Should have it Here it is Okay, so this is seen out of a window This is double tap strike on Kharkiv" - this is a bit disjointed/unclear, but I think the overall meaning is clear.
What are "Truthhounds"? I assume this is a Ukrainian NGO but I was not 100% certain.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
STEPS:
Read the instructions thoroughly
Extract Title, Date and Part from the Youtube video title
Split the transcript into topics and number these from 1 to N using the timestamps.
Write specific, quantified and granular Topic Titles for each topic.
Write topic timeframes using the timestamps.
Check topic timeframes cover the entirety of the video.
Write Topic Summaries for each topic using Markdown for emphasis as appropriate.
Choose a quote from the transcript and edit for readability/remove any hesitations
Record any queries/anything that was not understood from the transcript.
