Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Storm Shadow, Breaching Defences, Bucha, Putin & Prigozhin
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"If Prigozhin goes, then suddenly the military will try and set the agenda. At the moment, Putin is using Prigozhin to set the war agenda."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has a cup of really good tea and is ready to provide extra tidbits and nuggets to give a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine.
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Storm Shadow missile
- The UK has provided Ukraine with the Storm Shadow, a long-range cruise missile fired from planes
- It has been adapted to Ukrainian airframes and is ready for use
- Storm Shadow has a range of 250-400km and is equipped with a broach warhead that can penetrate hardened targets
- While it is a potent weapon, there are challenges in bringing it to heavily defended targets like the Kerch Bridge
- Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to strike high-value targets outside of HIMARS range, exacerbating Russian planning and logistics
Breaching Russian defences
- Russians have built extensive fortifications (2400km of trenches) but only have around 180,000 infantry to man them
- To breach these defences, Ukraine needs the right tools:
- JDAM-ER bombs to destroy trenches and dugouts
- Excalibur and bonus munitions to hit reinforcements
- Mine-clearing line charges and mine plows to clear paths
- Armoured vehicles to advance through the breach
- A suggested offensive would attack in multiple directions to throw Russians into disarray, while using artillery to hit spotted targets
- The West needs to provide Ukraine with sufficient materiel (more of everything) to ensure a successful offensive
Inadequate training of Russian troops
- The quality of Russian troop readiness is much lower now compared to Feb 2022
- Some soldiers haven't even fired a shot prior to deployment
- The proliferation of private military companies has led to variable training standards
- Despite these issues, Russia's artillery advantage still allows poorly trained troops to advance
- Ukraine needs more resources from the West to liberate territory, as current aid is insufficient
Putin and Prigozhin's linked fates
- In an interview, Roger Boyes suggests Putin and Prigozhin's futures are inextricably linked
- Prigozhin is dictating the culture and conduct of the war in key areas
- If Prigozhin falls out of favour, the Russian generals could take over and seek a settlement rather than a forever war
- Putin needs to keep Prigozhin in his role to have a chance of achieving his aims, even if Russian elites are unhappy with the forever war
New York Times exposé on Bucha war crimes
- An 8-month investigation by the NYT concluded that Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment carried out the Bucha massacre
- The killings were part of a deliberate effort to secure a route to Kyiv
- The NYT collected extensive evidence including interviews, security camera footage, phone records and military equipment
- They identified two dozen soldiers from the 234th Regiment and the commander, Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov, establishing a clear chain of command
- The systematic killings could amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity
- This investigation highlights the importance of supporting quality journalism to hold perpetrators accountable
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks his audience for their brilliant comments and support. He appreciates the great community on his channel.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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