Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: RU Defence Industry, RU v UKR Asyemmtry, the Counter, & Slovakia
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Table of Contents 📖
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"If you don't do the basics then you're not going to go anywhere"
Russian defence industry weaknesses
- Russia's defence industry is unlikely to meet government targets for boosting weapons production due to:
- Poor wages and difficult working conditions leading to staff shortages and unfilled skilled roles
- "Voluntary compulsory donations" for the war effort undermining production
- Sanctions restricting supply of vital electronic components
- The corrupt nature of Putin's regime makes it impossible for the defence industry to switch to a wartime mode of operations
Asymmetry between Russian and Ukrainian forces
- There is a growing asymmetry between Russian and Ukrainian forces:
- Russia is losing troops and replacing them with poorly trained conscripts while Ukraine is receiving extensive NATO training
- Russia can only replace destroyed tanks with worse, mothballed equipment while Ukraine is getting better Western equipment
- This gap is widening each week and Russia is unable to reverse it due to production issues
- Ukraine has an asymmetric advantage over Russia in strategy, logistics, training and morale according to military analyst Mike Martin
Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy
- A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive would aim to:
- Cut the land bridge between Mariupol and Melitopol to disrupt Russian logistics
- Create dilemmas for Russia by probing weaknesses in different areas
- Exploit Ukraine's ability to move assets along interior lines faster than Russia can along exterior lines
- Ukraine's exact plan will likely remain flexible to adapt to Russian responses and weaknesses
- A major counteroffensive is needed by Ukraine soon to maintain Western support, especially with a view to potential US government changes
Slovakian government collapse and implications
- Slovakia's government has collapsed and been replaced by a technocratic interim government
- There are concerns the pro-Russian opposition leader Robert Fico could take power, as his party is polling ahead
- Fico wants to end arms deliveries to Ukraine, veto new EU sanctions, and claims Ukrainian fascists started the war
- Slovakia has the most pro-Russian public in the EU with over half wanting Russia to win
- However, the pro-Western Progressive Slovakia party is rising in the polls which could prevent a Fico victory
- The constant bickering among pro-Western parties is a risk though as it could split their vote
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He mentions the various ways to support such as Buy Me a Coffee, PayPal, channel memberships and the UA Supporter website (uasupporter.com/atp).
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