Ukraine War Update NEWS/ANALYSIS: Military Aid - Bulgaria, N Korea, MQ-9
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"If we prove the concept with these two aircraft that we can have for a dollar, the US has 100 in warehouses. Britain is retiring their MQ-9 Block A's. They've got, I think it's 25. So we have a store. We can have a long-term, sustainable MQ-9."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is splitting the military aid segment into a separate video from the geopolitics one as he plans to do some analysis on Bulgaria which would make the whole video too long otherwise.
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North Korean artillery shells supplied to Russia
- There are reports that some of the 1-2 million artillery shells supplied by North Korea to Russia are of poor quality, with dimensional issues causing barrels to explode in some cases
- A Western official told Ukraine: The Latest podcast that the large supply of shells from North Korea to Russia hasn't worked out as hoped, with some manufacturing tolerances being "a bit dodgy" leading to barrels splitting and bursting
Issues with North Korean artillery pieces
- A video shows a Russian D-20 152mm howitzer from North Korea with completely degraded tires that would have to be dragged into firing position
- Trent Telenko provides analysis, noting the huge manual labor required to place the howitzer without tires and the inability to move it without vehicles dragging it
- He questions if this is representative of the condition of the North Korean artillery pieces Russia has received
- Telenko also highlights the general issues artillery faces in any war: never enough shells, tires, barrel liners, and production capability for new barrels
- He notes Russia's lack of mechanized logistics (pallets and forklifts) hinders their efficiency
- The D-20 barrels have a short lifespan of 1000-1500 rounds and Russia lacks the high-grade steel production for barrel liners
- Telenko argues shooting poor quality North Korean shells through old barrels is "a violently explosive way to commit lethal self-harm"
- While caveats are needed as this may not be representative, Jonathan argues when pieced together it suggests Russia is tenuously hanging on with under-trained troops, desertions, vulnerability to counter-battery fire and electronic warfare, and reliance on North Korean supplies
Bulgaria's role in supplying weapons to Ukraine
- A new pro-Western coalition government in Bulgaria is shifting the country towards supporting Ukraine, with the defence minister stating it is in their strategic interest for Ukraine to withstand Russian aggression
- Bulgaria has been quietly shipping Soviet-era ammunition to Ukraine since 2022, recently pledging 100 armoured vehicles publicly
- The arms industry is working 24/7 and is very important for Bulgaria's economy
- However, Bulgaria still has ties to Russia, with a pro-Russian president and heavy reliance on Russian oil
- Corruption and Russian influence in politics, media and the judiciary remain issues blocking Bulgaria's accession to the EU's Schengen area
Russian sabotage of Bulgaria's arms industry
- Bulgarian arms manufacturer Emilian Gebrev, whose company supplies a large amount of ammunition to Ukraine, says he has survived two Russian assassination attempts and that Russian saboteurs have targeted his factories and depots for years
- He blames the lack of investigations and prosecutions on corruption and ongoing Russian influence in Bulgaria
- Under the new government, the chief prosecutor was forced out in June and judicial reforms have started, but Gebrev says more needs to be done
- Bulgarian officials estimate 40% of the bullets and shells used by Ukraine are manufactured in Bulgaria, in addition to backfilling allied countries' stocks
Efforts to supply Ukraine with specialised Western equipment
- In an interview with Pekka Kalyanemi, Kate McKenna discusses her voluntary work to get obsolete but useful Western military equipment to Ukraine
- She is working on acquiring 12 CRAM railguns from Canada that were previously used on frigates to defend power stations and infrastructure in Ukraine against missiles and drones
- McKenna is also trying to get Ukraine two MQ-9 Reaper drones that General Atomics is willing to provide for $1 with no additional costs, including training, transport, spare parts, and setting up operations
- She argues MQ-9s would be invaluable for striking high-value targets in Russia, taking out difficult equipment, and providing precision targeting for F-16s without risking pilots' lives
- McKenna has negotiated to remove barriers but is frustrated that President Zelensky is not publicly demanding the MQ-9s be sent immediately
- If the concept is proven, the US has 100 more MQ-9s in storage and the UK is retiring 25 that could be provided to Ukraine
Wrap up
Jonathan notes that he finds all the topics covered really interesting which is why he made a separate video. He thanks viewers for their support via Buy Me a Coffee, PayPal, and YouTube memberships.
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