Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update, Mixed Bag of Nuts!

"So motorbikes being used in an urban environment, we haven't seen too much of that. We've seen them mainly in sort of on fields and in rural settings, but using motorbikes to attack there, but also disabled and unfit soldiers to giving you a sense of desperation."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update - this time a 3-day update for 16/03/2025. The colours of the pins on the map are varied which means that there has been movement by both sides.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk Oblast

🎦 00:11-02:37⏩
Jonathan begins in Kursk Oblast where the map shows the Russians have pushed the Ukrainians back into two small pockets of land on the other side of the Russian border, south of the border. Jonathan explains that these are likely to be deep reconnaissance groups and don't represent robust control. He notes that Ukraine has conceded fairly large areas of land to Russia but will have inflicted losses in terms of equipment and ammunition.

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Kharkiv Oblast

🎦 02:37-02:43⏩
No change in the Kharkiv Oblast sectors controlled by Russia - the frontline seems pretty stable.

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Kupyansk and the Oskil River

🎦 02:43-06:58⏩
Jonathan notes interesting movements along the Kupyansk line to Svatove. North of Kupyansk, the Russians have been struggling to get equipment across the Oskil River. Ukrainians appear to be pushing the Russians back and have pushed them out of the village of Filyovka. Jonathan notes that there are differences in the mapping between Andrew Perpetua and Suriyak Maps. He shows how the Ukrainians have advanced into the forest to the west of the Oskil River. He reminds viewers that if the Ukrainians are taking small bites out of the grey zone, it may not be reflected on his map which only shows the Russian defensive line. Further south along the Pistchani sector, the Ukrainians have had some success in pushing through the Zaryazhzhovy and Lozove area.

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Luhansk Oblast: Novoselivske and Makiivka

🎦 06:58-10:11⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukrainian counterattacks and gains in the Luhansk Oblast in the Nadia and Novoegorivka areas. He notes reports from pro-Ukrainian sources that confirm the advances. He explains that the presence of Russian drones in the area indicates that the Ukrainians have moved further forward. Jonathan refers to footage of the 3rd Assault Brigade who took control of both villages. Further south, Suriyak Maps show Russian gains in the Balka Zhuravka area. He notes a difference in opinion between the two mappers about who controls the area.

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Luhansk Oblast: Bilohorivka and the Serebryansky Forest

🎦 10:11-11:16⏩
Jonathan is less concerned about the Russian advances in Luhansk Oblast as the Oskil River offers a good natural barrier. He notes that there is no change in the Bilohorivka area.

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Donetsk Oblast: Torsk and Chasiv Yar

🎦 11:16-13:00⏩
Jonathan moves on to Donetsk Oblast and describes minor changes south of the Torsk frontline, around the villages of Vasyukivka, Saki and Ivanivka. There are no changes at Chasiv Yar, which is good news. He highlights the use of Ukrainian FPV drones to hit a Russian dugout on the west of the canal by Orikhovo-Vasylivka - the deepest known Russian crossing of the canal in that area.

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Donetsk Oblast: New York, Toretsk and Pivnichne

🎦 13:00-16:49⏩
Moving to the Toretsk - New York area, Jonathan highlights changes in the mapping by Andrew Perpetua showing Russian gains or a rejig around Toretsk. He notes reports of Ukrainian forces liberating substantial parts of Toretsk. Jonathan offers an opinion on the situation and notes that the Ukrainian gains are small. He talks about the peace negotiations and the impact on the frontline, questioning whether Russia will be able to regenerate their forces or whether Ukraine has reserves. He concludes that it's a waiting game.

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Donetsk Oblast: Avdiivka, Opytne and Vuhledar

🎦 16:49-21:00⏩
Jonathan reports claims of Ukrainian successes around Shevchenko, with both mappers agreeing that the Russians are being pushed south. Some sources claim that Ukrainians control the whole village. Jonathan highlights Ukrainian liberation of Yelyzavetivka from the grey zone - a gain not reflected in the mapping of either mapper. He notes Ukrainian advances west of Nowa Ukrayinka, in the direction of Prokrosk, and then back in Shevchenko. Jonathan is confused by reports of a Russian advance in Uzpanovka - an area retaken by the Ukrainians. He notes further Ukrainian advances around Shevchenko and Avdiivka but significant differences between Andrew Perpetua's map and Suriyak maps, particularly in the area around Andriivka, Ulakly and Kostiantynivka. Jonathan observes that the frontline to the north of Velyka Novosilka appears to have stabilised. He notes changes to the mapping around Mali Shbaky and Zhuravlyanka, which Suriyak Maps indicates are now under Russian control.

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Zaporizhzhia Oblast

🎦 21:00-23:28⏩
Jonathan refers to Suriyak maps and their update that Russian forces have been reinforcing the Zaporizhzhia line and have been advancing in the area for the first time since late 2022. Their aim appears to be to disrupt supply lines to the west of Orikhiv. Jonathan cites reports from the last 48 hours that Ukraine has recaptured positions west of Pyatikhatky and on the southern outskirts of Mali Shbaky. He believes that this could be an attempt to cut the Russian supply road that runs from Stepnohirsk to Orikhiv. Jonathan notes a pin on the Dnipro River Delta, but is unsure what it relates to. He observes heavy fighting and casualties in the area, with both sides battling for control. Jonathan reports that the bridge over the Konka River - part of the Antonivka Road Bridge - has been destroyed by a French-supplied guided glide bomb. He questions why it hadn't been taken out sooner and speculates that perhaps Ukraine were hoping to use it to get across to Oleshky. He finishes by noting lots of Russian losses as they try to gain a foothold on the islands within the delta.

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Institute for the Study of War Update: Use of Unfit Personnel

🎦 23:28-25:08⏩
Jonathan is still waiting for an update from the Institute for the Study of War, but shares a point of note from their report 2 days previously. Their report highlighted that Russian forces in the Toretsk area have been using physically unfit and disabled soldiers. They also noted the use of motorcycles by some units for rapid but disorientated advances into Toretsk. Jonathan highlights the desperation of Russia in using unfit soldiers, suggesting that they must be struggling to rotate their forces. He questions whether Russia will be able to generate a force large enough to achieve anything meaningful.

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Wrap Up

🎦 25:08-25:13⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and for their support.

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