Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Kursk Update

"So these kind of Russian appeasers like Elon Musk saying, oh no, it'll start World War III you can go and take a long walk off a short pier because of made-up nuclear fears."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:32⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the Ukraine War Update for the 16th August 2024. He lets viewers know that he may not be able to post tomorrow as he's going on a final excursion as his holiday is nearly over. He reassures viewers that he's trying to keep up the record of posting a video every day and that if he is able to post, it will be a bit different.

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General Staff Figures: Colossal Russian Losses - 1,330 Personnel

🎦 00:32-02:21⏩

Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for the previous day (15th August 2024), reminding viewers that the figures should be treated with caution. He highlights that Russian personnel losses are very high at 1,330 and it is assumed by a commenter (Tim White) that this includes the 102 POWs captured in Kursk (although this isn't confirmed). Jonathan analyses the figures and concludes that they are high because the Ukrainians are concentrating their efforts in the Kursk region and not so much on the rest of the front line. He speculates that because the Ukrainians are having successes in the Donbas region and the Russians are suffering heavy losses in Kursk, it probably balances out for the Russians (from their point of view). Jonathan provides his analysis of the daily equipment losses and points out where the figures are significantly higher than the daily average, including: 35 Armoured fighting vehicles, 12 tanks, 59 artillery systems, 5 MLRS, 73 fuel tankers and 16 pieces of special equipment.

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Oryx: Ukrainian and Russian Losses Compared

🎦 02:21-05:43⏩

Jonathan compares the visual confirmation of equipment losses from Oryx. The figures show that the Ukrainians have lost more equipment than the Russians if you include surveillance and communications equipment, but less if you exclude these. Jonathan points out that it's relatively easy to replace items like Starlink and that in terms of combat losses, it's fairly even. He provides an analysis of what the Ukrainians have lost, pointing out that the US will be sending military aid packages soon which will include Bradleys and other fighting vehicles. He notes that John Kirby had already announced this and that a commenter (Jompie) said that 100 Bradleys had probably already been sent and were probably in Europe awaiting the announcement as these announcements are usually made after the equipment has arrived.

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Russian 2S7 Pion Self-Propelled Howitzer Destroyed

🎦 05:43-07:10⏩

Jonathan continues with his equipment loss analysis, pointing out where particular equipment losses are significant, including: a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer destroyed (it has the longest range for the Russians). He also notes a Russian BM-21 Grad (MLRS) damaged, a T-90M tank abandoned and five Russian tanks destroyed.

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Kursk: Large Number of Russian POWs - Evidence of Low Russian Morale

🎦 07:10-09:25⏩

Jonathan analyses footage of a large number of Russian POWs, many of whom were captured in a bunker complex. The footage was released by the Ukrainian General Staff and shows 102 POWs (according to comments) who had been captured by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in the village of Sverdlokovo in the Kursk region of Russia. Jonathan speculates as to whether the footage of trenches/tunnels he reviewed previously was filmed at this bunker complex. A commenter (Military History) points out that company-sized units surrendering can often lead to a cascade with whole battalions surrendering as a result, and that this has happened many times before. Another commenter (Malcontent News) states that they have seen reports that some Russian POWs have had no food for three days and that this, along with the military situation and the low morale this will be causing is leading to the high number of surrenders. Jonathan agrees with these points, adding that the fact they're hearing from other units that they've surrendered will add to the cascading effect.

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Kursk: Footage of Day One - K-52 Wreckage

🎦 09:25-10:22⏩

Jonathan reports on footage released by the Ukrainian General Staff of a Russian K-52 that had been shot down on the first day of the Kursk offensive. He notes that there have been numerous reports and claims that many Russian aircraft have been destroyed but not all of them have been verified.

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Russia: Tu-22M3 Pilot Dies in Irkutsk Crash

🎦 10:22-11:15⏩

It is reported by commenter Tim White that one of the pilots of the Russian Tu-22M3 that crashed in Irkutsk has now died (three crew members survived). Jonathan adds that commenter Flash Point News believes this is a blow for the Russians as the last of these planes was produced in 1993 and according to Defence Express, Russia only has around 30 left, not all of which are in combat condition. Jonathan says he read that they had 27.

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Kursk: Ukrainian Equipment Losses Now 2:1 Against Russia

🎦 11:15-13:30⏩

Jonathan analyses the latest figures for Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses in the Kursk region. The figures, which he first mentioned yesterday show that the Ukrainians have now lost twice as much equipment as the Russians (51 losses for Ukraine compared to 27 for Russia). He explains that this is to be expected as the Ukrainians will be going in with lots of vehicles and equipment, whilst the Russians, who are defending, will not have as much in the area and will be taking out Ukrainian vehicles with helicopters, ATGMs and mines. Jonathan points out that footage of K-52s in action in Kursk has been published but that some of it is dubious and may have been filmed elsewhere.

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Sumy: Russian Iskander Destroys Ukrainian S-125 (SA-3 Goa) TEL

🎦 14:01-15:22⏩

Jonathan reports that War Translated has claimed that a Ukrainian S-125 Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) with four 5V27 missiles (NATO reporting name SA-3 Goa) has been destroyed by a Russian Iskander-M missile in Sumy. He adds that War Translated had initially said the strike had taken place in Odesa, but then corrected this. This is significant as the S-125 is a Polish surface to air missile system. Jonathan analyses the information and concludes that the S-125 had been deployed to support incursions into Kursk. He speculates that it's also possible that it may have been deployed in support of Ukrainian offensives in Sumy, Kharkiv or Belgorod.

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Kursk: Russian Column Destroyed in Koronovo

🎦 15:22-16:38⏩

Jonathan reports that there have been reports that another Russian column has been destroyed, this time near the village of Koronovo in Kursk. He explains that this is similar to the attack that took place in the village of Rilsk where an entire Russian column was destroyed by HIMARS and that Russian sources are claiming that between 100 and 500 Russian soldiers were killed. Jonathan cautions that there is no proof of this as yet, but that it's likely more information will be released today.

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Kherson: Russian Pantsir-S1 Destroyed by HIMARS

🎦 16:38-17:00⏩

Jonathan reports that War Translated has claimed that a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence system has been destroyed by Ukrainian HIMARS in the Kherson region. Details are scant, other than that it took two missiles to destroy the Pantsir, the first of which only scared the crew.

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Kursk: Ukrainian HIMARS Destroys Russian Training Base

🎦 17:00-17:21⏩

Jonathan reports that according to War Monitor, Ukrainian HIMARS have destroyed a Russian training base near Kursk. He speculates that this is likely to be a high value target as the Russians would be massing troops and equipment at staging posts around Kursk in preparation to defend against the Ukrainian offensive. He says we can expect to see HIMARS very active in the area.

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Ukraine: Artillery - Russia Outfiring Ukraine 8:1? Oryx Disagrees

🎦 17:21-19:48⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian officials have been claiming that Russia is out-firing Ukraine in terms of artillery by a ratio of 8:1, but that this is down from 20:1, which was the case before Congress approved $60 billion in military aid for Ukraine. However, Jakub Janovsky (who is part of the Oryx team) doesn't believe this to be the case, saying that the ratio of artillery fire will vary along the front line, adding that you cannot extrapolate from a generalisation down to a specific location. He does believe that Russia has an advantage in terms of the number of artillery pieces but it's probably closer to 2-3:1 and that Russian artillery is significantly less accurate than it used to be. Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainians may be exaggerating the situation in order to put pressure on its allies to continue to supply artillery shells.

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Kursk: Ukrainians Fighting in Russian Uniforms? (Pt 1)

🎦 19:48-20:25⏩

Jonathan discusses reports that Russian equipment and uniforms have been discovered in woodland in the Kursk region and that the Ukrainians may be disguising themselves as Russians. This is in response to comments from viewers from the previous day where he had mentioned that there were reports that a Ukrainian unit had captured a village after entering dressed in Russian uniform and that once they had secured the village they had then revealed that they were Ukrainian. Jonathan says that this is interesting because he had previously discussed a thread by Mick Ryan where he had stated that Ukraine has been following international law and conventions on warfare. Some commenters were concerned that this may be a war crime (perfidy).

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Kursk: Ukrainians Fighting in Russian Uniforms? - Viewers Respond (Pt 2)

🎦 20:25-25:22⏩

Jonathan discusses comments from viewers in response to his previous video, where he had discussed whether the Ukrainians fighting in Russian uniforms in Kursk amounted to perfidy. A commenter (Berthold) believes that it's justified given that Russia used perfidy when it annexed Crimea and invaded the Donbas region in 2014 using soldiers without insignia, who became known as "little green men". Jonathan agrees with this point and provides his analysis of how Russia subsequently admitted that these were in fact Russian soldiers and that this was perfidy on a huge scale as they had previously denied they had anything to do with the invasion. Another commenter (Andy) states that fighting in the uniform of the enemy is against the Geneva Conventions, but that travelling in enemy uniform with the intention of changing into your own uniform before engaging in combat is not and that this is considered a ruse of war. He gives the example of the attempt to assassinate General Eisenhower during the Battle of the Bulge, but adds that battlefield justice can be arbitrary. Jonathan agrees with this point, adding that trying to regulate war and define what is acceptable and what is not is always going to be arbitrary given that the aim of war is to kill other human beings. Another commenter (Old Man of Crypto) believes that it is more likely that the uniforms discovered by the Russians in the woodland belonged to Russian soldiers who had discarded them and then disguised themselves as civilians, possibly to escape capture and that this is far more plausible. Jonathan agrees and says that he hadn't considered this and that given there have been reports that 42 Russian conscripts had gone missing, it's likely these are their uniforms. Commenter (Joseph Blundellville) doesn't think that wearing enemy uniforms when interacting with civilians is perfidy as the definition of perfidy states that you need to be involved in an attack. He goes on to provide further analysis about the laws of war, stating that in his opinion, perfidy is designed to prevent ambulances and medical personnel from being targeted and that as long as this isn't the aim and there are no unintended consequences he is fine with interpreting the letter of the law leniently. Jonathan says that having read all the comments, he has changed his mind.

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Crimea: Overnight Attacks - Explosions Heard Across the Region

🎦 25:22-26:50⏩

Jonathan reports that there were a number of explosions across Crimea last night, the first of which were in the vicinity of the Kerch Strait Bridge. Commenter Tim White reported that all the lights on the bridge went out and that there were also explosions at the same time near Simferopol and in the Kamyanka area. There were online reports that something was on fire near the bridge. It was initially believed that Ukraine had destroyed an air defence system on Mount Mithridates, but this may have been falling debris. The Russian appointed governor of Sevastopol has, as usual claimed that everything was shot down, but shortly afterwards there was another explosion, this time in Chornomorsky, although it is not known whether this was air defence or a hit. Russian helicopters were also seen in the area.

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Crimea: Ferry Crossing Hit?

🎦 26:50-27:45⏩

Jonathan continues his report about the attacks in Crimea. A Ukrainian spokesman had claimed that another ferry crossing had been destroyed by a Ukrainian strike. A commenter (Bretchuk) believes that Ukraine may have struck another boat in Chornomorsky (which is in Russian occupied territory). Satellite imagery has shown fires near Kerch, but it is not known whether this was an air defence system or falling debris.

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Crimea: Information War, Attacks and Rumours of a September Offensive

🎦 27:45-30:45⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia is claiming that Russian Mi-8 and Ka-29 helicopters have shot down five Ukrainian Magura V5 maritime drones (Sea Babies) that were heading towards Crimea. He states that this is part of the ongoing information war between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides releasing videos and information about landings taking place on Crimea and the Kinburn Spit. Russia is also claiming that twelve Ukrainian ATACMS missiles were shot down over the Kerch Strait Bridge. There are reports that drones have attacked the port of Kerch and that a Pantsir-S1 air defence system was destroyed. Ukrainian intelligence is reporting that 18 Russian ships have been destroyed by Magura V5s. Jonathan discusses a report that Ukraine had attacked a ferry crossing in Kerch and a boat in Krasnodar Krai and that there is no information about the extent of the damage. He states that this may be part of Ukrainian shaping operations ahead of a much larger offensive. He goes on to say that three Russian rail ferries have been destroyed in the Kerch Strait, which is significant as these were the only ferries that could transport heavy rail cargo and that the bridge itself cannot carry the heaviest cargo. Jonathan reports that Russian sources believe that Ukraine is preparing a major offensive against Crimea in September.

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Donetsk: Galactica Shopping Centre Destroyed by Fire

🎦 30:45-31:26⏩

Jonathan reports that a fire has destroyed the Galactica Shopping Centre in occupied Donetsk. Russia is claiming that there are civilian casualties. It is not known whether the fire was started by drones/missiles or as a result of falling debris from air defence systems. Jonathan speculates that the shopping centre may have contained military targets.

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Kursk: HIMARS Continues Attacks on Bridges in Glushkovo

🎦 31:26-33:34⏩

Jonathan reports that HIMARS have carried out further strikes against bridges in Glushkovo. He provides analysis of the damage, saying that yesterday, the bridge had two holes in it, but today footage shows that it has been significantly damaged, with at least four holes visible. He adds that this may be in preparation for an encirclement. He explains that the bridge is located to the South of the Seim River and that this was the only paved road in Glushkovsky. The Russians will now have to use dirt roads to reach the river crossings at Zvanoia and Karizh, both of which have been targeted by the Ukrainians.

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Kursk: 700 Russians Encircled? Bridge Destroyed in Svanaoia

🎦 33:34-34:20⏩

Jonathan reports that the bridge in Glushkovo that he was just talking about has been destroyed and that the Ukrainians are implementing a plan to isolate the Glushkovsky district. War Translated are reporting that the Russian military bloggers Romanov and Spartak were both on the bridge when it was hit. It is believed that two volunteers from the self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic were killed. Jonathan notes that it's ironic that Romanov may have inadvertently assisted the Ukrainians again with battle damage assessment. It is being reported that 700 hundred Russian soldiers may have been encircled in Glushkovo as a result of the bridge being destroyed. There are also reports that another bridge has been destroyed by Ukrainian strikes, this time in the village of Svanaoia. The Ukrainian MOD has so far not commented.

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Elon Musk Prevented Ukrainian Attack on Sevastopol

🎦 34:20-36:20⏩

Jonathan discusses a post by Professor Philip O'Brien in which he says that the argument that if we provide Ukraine with certain weapons systems this will lead to escalation has now been deflated. Jonathan agrees with this point, reminding viewers that two years ago Elon Musk (who he refers to as Elmo) prevented Ukraine from attacking Sevastopol using a jet ski because he was worried that it would start World War 3 and refused to allow them to use Starlink. He reminds viewers that Musk has allowed Russia to use Starlink in the Donbas region. Jonathan goes on to list everything that has happened since then, all of which could be seen as escalatory without any response from Russia. He concludes that people like Elon Musk who appease Russia can "go and take a long walk off a short pier".

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Ukraine: Foreign Volunteers Offered Citizenship

🎦 36:20-36:53⏩

President Zelensky has announced that he plans to offer Ukrainian citizenship to foreign volunteers and their families who have been fighting for Ukraine. Jonathan believes that this is not only a way of thanking them but also a way to address the population crisis and to shore up tax revenue.

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Russia: Shortage of Personnel and "Butcher" Commanders

🎦 36:53-38:20⏩

Jonathan reports that Russian Telegram channels are expressing concern about the shortage of troops and the number of incompetent commanders, who are referred to as "Butcher Generals". He reads out a post by Russian military blogger Voyenkor Kotyonok who is critical of these generals. Kotyonok says that they are blaming the generals for everything and that whilst this is often justified, they are ignoring the role of officers from platoon to regimental level, many of whom have been influenced by their superiors and who view their troops as being expendable, and that this is why Russia is losing so many troops. He states that these officers will do whatever it takes to get promoted, even if it means needlessly sacrificing their troops.

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Odesa: Cargo Ship on Fire, Primorsky Krai: Power Outage

🎦 38:20-39:25⏩

Jonathan reports that a cargo ship is on fire near Odesa, but the details are scant. He also reports that there has been a major power outage in Primorsky Krai in Russia which was caused by an accident at a generator. According to Russian media, traffic lights have failed, internet access has been disrupted, electric trains have been cancelled and people have been trapped in lifts. Jonathan believes that this demonstrates that Russia is a fragile state.

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Russia: Security Council Meeting - Gerasimov Missing Again

🎦 39:25-40:18⏩

President Putin has held a meeting with the Security Council to discuss new technology being used in Ukraine. Jonathan is amused that Putin still refuses to call the war a war. He notices that Gerasimov is missing from the meeting, but that Medvedev is present. Shoigu is present, but via video link. Jonathan questions why Gerasimov, as commander in chief of the Russian Armed Forces is not present at such an important meeting, especially given that his role in Kursk has now been given to Bortnikov (who Jonathan believes has been replaced by Dumin). He concludes that Gerasimov is no longer in charge in anything other than name and that the recent strike on Crimea has sealed his fate.

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Wrap up

🎦 40:18-40:24⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, apologises for the length of the video and says he'll speak to them soon.

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