Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update, Engels Airbase Hit & Kreminna
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"The Russians say, oh, it is taken out, just right above the airfield, and it just happened to have killed three people, the debris from the falling, you know, exploded missile, exploded drone, whatever. You know, just absolute nonsense."
Hello Team!
Jonathan notes it is Boxing Day in the UK and there may be a lack of some open source intelligence due to the holidays. For example, the Institute for the Study of War did not produce a report on Christmas Day. But he will share what information is available.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Losses and Strike on Engels Airbase
The claimed Russian losses from Ukraine include:
- 550 personnel
- 5 tanks
- 7 APCs
- 5 artillery systems
- 1 drone
- 12 vehicles
Jonathan says the 550 troops and 5 artillery are decent numbers. The big news is Ukraine struck Engels airbase deep inside Russia for the second time. Rumors suggest a cruise missile storage site was hit. Last time this preceded a massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine, so this could signal another attack is imminent, especially with increased Russian naval activity in the Black Sea. The Russians claim 3 servicemen died from falling drone debris after their air defenses engaged the drone directly over the airbase. However, Russian sources doubt this story, noting how odd it is that Russian air defenses can only intercept drones directly over their airbases and not during the hundreds of kilometers the slow, Soviet-era drones travel to get there. The strike sends a powerful signal to the Russian military and population even if the damage is limited.
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Svatove and Kreminna Situation
The Russians are improving their defenses in Zaporizhzhia oblast, the last area to get significant defensive preparations, indicating they expect a Ukrainian offensive. Around Svatove, fighting continues in many nearby settlements like Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. The situation is described as "tense" with rumors the Ukrainians are making progress towards Svatove. There are many unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian advances near Kreminna, with some Russian sources claiming Ukraine has achieved fire control over the P66 highway between Kreminna and Sievierodonetsk. Other sources suggest Ukrainians have liberated Chervonopopivka and Dibrova near Kreminna. Even Russian milblogger WarGonzo, who is usually one of the last to acknowledge Ukrainian gains, is showing these areas as Ukrainian-controlled. Rumors abound that Russia is looting Kreminna and may withdraw. If Ukraine could take Kreminna it would be significant, though it is more challenging than Lyman due to nearby built-up areas. Still, it is an easier target than Rubizhne or Sievierodonetsk. The key will be for Ukraine to avoid being flanked from further north as they advance. Continued fighting is reported along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
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Bakhmut and Other Frontline Updates
Fighting remains intense around Bakhmut with heavy losses on both sides. Ukraine claims to have retaken Optyne south of Bakhmut while Russia claims to have captured Ukrainian outposts there. To the northeast, a Russian trench line in Soledar was overrun by Ukraine, taking 10 POWs. Geolocated footage shows fields littered with Russian bodies. South of Bakhmut, Russia is trying to advance near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka but taking major losses crossing open ground. Some believe Russia may have culminated and lacks the resources to maintain offensives. In Marinka, both sides claim to control the center but the front line remains difficult to verify. No major changes are reported around Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Zaporizhzhia or Kherson. A relatively "quiet" day likely owes to both lack of activity and lack of reporting due to the holiday.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan notes the relative lack of information due to the holiday and is unsure if he will have time to record another "Ukraine War Update Extra" video today. He thanks listeners for their support, noting they can help the channel by purchasing from the UA Supporter store. He also gives a special thanks to his Patreon supporters. He wishes everyone a Merry Christmas and signs off.
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