Ukraine War Up. EXTRA: Biden in Kyiv, China, How the War Is Going, & Primakov Doctrine
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Table of Contents 📖
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"The only way that Russia could win this war is if China get involved. And really, that's how important this kind of decision, these geopolitical machinations involving China are because actually if China do overstep the mark and cross that red line we've got a war between the kind of the axis of Russia, China, etc. against the rest of the world."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses:
- Biden's surprise visit to Kyiv and meetings with Zelenskyy, coinciding with China's Wang Yi visiting Moscow
- Other political visits to Kyiv including Israeli and Italian delegations
- Speculation that Biden's visit was in response to China's increasing support for Russia
Defenestration in Russia
- Another Russian official, Marina Yankina, has died after falling from a window
- Jonathan questions how pro-Russians can support a regime where opposition and speaking out leads to "falling out of windows"
- He argues there is clear cognitive dissonance from those who attack Ukraine/the West but ignore these suspicious deaths in Russia
China's Potential Lethal Aid to Russia
- US has intelligence that China is considering providing lethal military aid to Russia and has shared this with allies
- China has so far only provided non-lethal aid like helmets and flak jackets
- If China provides lethal aid it would be a major escalation and likely lead to increased Western support for Ukraine
- China is trying to balance its support for Russia without crossing red lines that would lead to sanctions
State of the War and Russian Military
- Analysis of the war so far by Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling who outlines 5 phases showing Ukraine has consistently outperformed Russia
- Russian production and supply issues - images of idle tanks in factory
- The poor state of the Russian military is likely why they are seeking lethal aid from China
- Losses of territory and troops show Russia is strategically failing in its war aims
Primakov Doctrine and Russian Foreign Policy
- Discussion of the Primakov Doctrine - the view that the world should be multipolar but with Russia as the main power, not the US
- This doctrine has guided Russian foreign policy for decades
- Russia's military action in Ukraine, while risky, aligns with the Primakov Doctrine
- The doctrine emphasizes Russia's need to be the dominant power in the former Soviet states
- Perun's video provides good analysis of Russia's historical views of itself as a great power
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by encouraging viewers to watch Perun's video for an in-depth look at Russia's grand strategy and the risks Putin has taken in Ukraine. He thanks viewers for their support.
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