Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Ru Opinions on War, Bronk on Planes, & Propagandart
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Table of Contents 📖
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"There's an interesting idea there. So this idea that they are happy still to complain about everyday matters, we see this an awful lot in Russian society where they can complain, but they never complain about Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich."
Hello Team!
- Jonathan gives a shout out to Sergei, Matt Bishop's father-in-law who has safely arrived in Australia from Ukraine. He jokingly advises Sergei to get used to Australian slang and culture.
Russian Attitudes Towards the War
- A new paper by Andrei Kolesnikov and Denis Volkov documents Russian attitudes towards the war, based on nationwide polls and focus groups. Key findings:
- Support for Russia's actions in Ukraine has averaged about 75% since the start of the war
- The vast majority of Russians are in a state of "learned indifference" - they mostly support what the regime is doing while waiting for it all to end
- The number of those who don't support the war has remained steady at around 19-20%
- Russians who oppose the war are still very unlikely to protest against it publicly due to the high risks involved
- Ordinary Russians adapted to the new economic conditions caused by the war in under a year
- The war has become normalised for most Russians
- The public mood has been consistently positive, with the exception of the mobilisation period which saw a dramatic decline
- Jonathan analyses the psychology behind why many Russians still support the war even if they recognise the harm it has done. He compares it to people maintaining faith in God despite the problem of evil and suffering in the world.
Challenges of Integrating F-16s for Ukraine
In an interview, Justin Bronk from RUSI discusses the challenges Ukraine faces with potentially operating F-16 fighter jets:
- Converting Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s safely at a basic level can be done in a few months, but this only creates an inexperienced "wingman"
- Achieving a 4-ship lead, needed for tactics in high threat environments, takes 3-6 years of training
- The F-16 is not designed for Ukraine's current Soviet-era tactics and doctrines
- To be effective, Ukrainians would need to adopt Western-style air tactics which involves flying in mutually supporting groups of 4 aircraft with distinct roles - this requires a lot of training and resources
- F-16s are sensitive to foreign object debris (FOD) on runways, requiring careful preparation and maintenance of airfields which could be challenging in wartime Ukraine
- The best air-to-air missiles for F-16s like the latest AMRAAMs are unlikely to be supplied to Ukraine by the US to avoid compromising effectiveness against China
Gripen as an Alternative to F-16
Bronk suggests the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen as a good second option alongside F-16s for Ukraine, for several reasons:
- Gripen is easier to maintain, designed for conscript mechanics with minimal training
- Gripen can use the long-range Meteor air-to-air missile, which has significant advantages over older AMRAAMs or Russian missiles
- The Meteor's performance allows Gripens to be effective with less sophisticated tactics and in smaller numbers (1-2 aircraft) compared to F-16s
- Gripens are more affordable to operate and can take off from roads and rough airfields
- Gripens could be a good interim solution for Ukraine to use now, while F-16s are a longer-term project requiring extensive training
- Some Ukrainian pilots are already going to train on Gripens
Sniper Documentaries
Jonathan recommends two short documentaries about a Ukrainian sniper unit called "Ghosts of Bakhmut", providing insights into their equipment, activities and mentality. The videos are linked in the description.
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Russian Propaganda Art
The video ends with an example of Russian propaganda art showing Russia and the Orthodox church protecting the Russian people and their identity from supposed threats of Nazism, Americanism, EU/NATO and LGBT. Jonathan notes how the inclusion of LGBT alongside the political/military "threats" is telling, and reflective of the Russian government's stance.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks the viewers for their support, with a special mention to Sergei again.
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