Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"People are doing his [Putin's] bidding, whether wittingly or not."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:56⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a different type of video as he doesn't have the data for his usual hits and losses and long-range strike segments. He's recording the night before and will cover those in a separate video. Jonathan excitedly shows off his new hoodies, featuring ATP Geopolitics branding, which he plans to take to Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russia to block VPNs
🎦 00:56-03:12⏩
Anton Gerashchenko reports that Russia will begin blocking VPNs from March 1st. Ekaterina Mizulina, head of the Safe Internet League in Russia and a vocal supporter of the war, announced the move, calling VPNs "portals to hell." This follows trials of internet shutdowns disguised as drone defence measures. It is speculated that Russia may completely disconnect from the internet after the March 17th elections to suppress potential protests. This raises concerns about communication and mobilization capabilities within Russia.
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Ukraine: Spy network uncovered
🎦 03:12-05:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the SBU's uncovering of a Russian spy network operating across three Ukrainian oblasts. Five individuals were detained for allegedly spying on the Ukrainian military for Russia's FSB. He highlights the ongoing challenge Ukraine faces in countering espionage due to the shared history, genetic similarities, and language between Russia and Ukraine. Identifying spies within Ukraine is far more complex than in countries with distinct appearances and languages, making it easier for Russian agents to blend in.
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Russia: Increase in Air safety incidents
🎦 05:23-06:13⏩
The Wall Street Journal reports a concerning rise in aviation safety incidents in Russia. In 2023, there were 9.9 incidents per 100,000 airplane departures, double the figures from 2022 and 2019. This increase is attributed to Western sanctions impacting Russia's ability to purchase spare parts, update software, and conduct proper aircraft maintenance. Although most incidents haven't resulted in major injuries or disasters, mechanical failures pose a significant safety risk to passengers and burden pilots. Concerns are growing about the potential for more serious incidents.
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Sudan: Ukrainian GUR captures Wagner mercenaries
🎦 06:13-07:29⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukraine's efforts to disrupt Russia's war funding by targeting their illicit activities in Africa, like gold smuggling and exploiting natural resources. Ukraine aims to expose Russia's exploitative practices while presenting themselves as a more ethical alternative to former colonial powers like France and Belgium. He reveals that Ukrainian GUR fighters captured Wagner PMC mercenaries in Sudan, showcasing Ukraine's global reach in countering Russian mercenary operations, even on different continents.
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Ukraine: Russian narrative around Lysychansk bakery strike
🎦 07:29-09:06⏩
Jonathan addresses the Russian propaganda surrounding the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the Adriatica bakery in Lysychansk. While the strike targeted a gathering of high-ranking Russian military personnel, Russia falsely claimed it was an attack on civilians. Jonathan criticizes Western media outlets for amplifying this Russian narrative without proper verification. He expresses concern about the recurring pattern of Russia blaming Ukraine for their attacks and the media's uncritical acceptance of these claims. Jonathan emphasizes the need to critically evaluate information and be wary of Russian disinformation campaigns.
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Netherlands to send 6 more F-16s to Ukraine
🎦 09:06-10:25⏩
The Dutch Defence Ministry announces that six more F-16s will be added to the fighter jet package for Ukraine, bringing the total to 24. Jonathan praises the Netherlands' support and acknowledges their commitment to supporting Ukraine, particularly following the downing of MH17, a Malaysian Airlines flight that departed from Amsterdam. He corrects his previous statement where he mistakenly referred to MH17 as a Dutch flight. Jonathan highlights the significance of 30 F-16s equipped with modern Western missiles and bombs for Ukraine, believing it will be a game-changer on the battlefield.
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Ukraine: Protecting F-16s from Russian attacks
🎦 10:25-12:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a viewer-suggested strategy for safeguarding Ukraine's F-16 fleet. Since F-16s require specific airfields, they become vulnerable to Russian targeting. The proposed solution involves stationing half of the F-16 fleet (e.g., 30 out of 60) in neighbouring NATO countries like Poland and Romania, not for launching attacks, but for safekeeping and maintenance. This rotation strategy allows for the continuous operation of 30 F-16s in Ukraine while mitigating the risk of losing a significant portion of the fleet in a single attack on a Ukrainian airbase.
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Ukraine: FPV drone innovation
🎦 12:06-13:01⏩
Ukraine is increasingly relying on FPV drones to compensate for artillery ammunition shortages and enhance strike accuracy. Defence Minister Rustem Umerov emphasizes the strategic advantage of these drones, particularly when artillery ammunition is limited. Jonathan believes drones will become even more critical for Ukraine's defence, allowing them to conserve valuable artillery while increasing the precision of their strikes.
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Ukraine: New Night vision drones
🎦 13:01-13:41⏩
Jonathan highlights the successful testing of the "Shulika M Mark 6" drone by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This new drone is equipped with night vision systems, potentially providing a tactical advantage on the battlefield. While specific capabilities remain undisclosed, this addition further strengthens Ukraine's expanding drone arsenal.
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Ukraine: Unmanned Ground Vehicles
🎦 13:41-14:08⏩
Jonathan reports on the Ukrainian "Kara Nebesna" squad's successful deployment of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) equipped with machine-gun turrets. These UGVs, assisted by aerial drones for target identification, successfully neutralized Russian positions. Jonathan marvels at the "Terminator-like" reality of unmanned warfare now unfolding in Ukraine.
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Military Aid: $500 Million donation from Howard Buffett
🎦 14:08-14:41⏩
Howard Buffett, son of Warren Buffett, has donated $500 million in aid to Ukraine. Jonathan expresses admiration for the Buffett family's generosity, emphasizing that this contribution surpasses aid provided by many countries claiming to support Ukraine. He highlights the significance of private individuals making substantial contributions and hopes for the continuation of such support.
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EU: Artillery shell shortage
🎦 14:41-15:29⏩
Jonathan discusses the EU's failure to meet its artillery shell supply goals for Ukraine. He clarifies that this isn't due to a lack of production capacity but rather pre-existing export contracts with other countries. While European nations have the capability to increase production, they face contractual obligations to fulfill existing orders, limiting their ability to divert large quantities of artillery shells to Ukraine. Jonathan suggests that this situation presents an opportunity for greater transparency and coordination among EU member states regarding defence production and export priorities.
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Hungary: Stalling Sweden's NATO application
🎦 15:29-16:30⏩
Jonathan criticizes Hungary's parliament for failing to ratify Sweden's NATO application due to a boycott by Viktor Orban's Fidesz party and their allies. Only 51 out of 199 deputies were present, making a vote impossible. Orban's party is delaying ratification until Sweden's Prime Minister visits Budapest, aiming to silence criticism from Sweden about Hungary's democratic backsliding. Jonathan condemns Hungary's actions, highlighting their retreat from democratic principles and attempts to strong-arm Sweden into retracting valid criticisms. This delay further underscores Hungary's isolation within NATO as the only member yet to ratify Sweden's bid.
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Bulgaria: Russian spy detained
🎦 16:30-17:42⏩
In Bulgaria, an employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is detained on suspicion of working for Russia. The suspect, a former diplomat at the Russian embassy in Sofia, had been declared persona non grata. This incident reinforces Jonathan's prior assertions about Russian embassies being hubs of espionage. He argues that many Russian diplomats are, in fact, intelligence operatives using diplomatic cover. He contends that the presence of large satellite dishes at these embassies indicates overt surveillance activities, emphasizing the widespread nature of Russian espionage within Europe and globally.
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Russia: Yandex to sell Russian assets
🎦 17:42-18:45⏩
Yandex NV, the Dutch parent company of the Russian tech giant Yandex (Russia's equivalent of Google), will sell its Russian business for $5.2 billion. Jonathan speculates on the potential for Russia to create its own isolated internet, separate from the global network. He suggests this would start with government websites and gradually expand to encompass other areas, effectively controlling information access for the Russian population. This move aligns with the broader trend of Russia tightening its grip on information and further isolating its citizens from the outside world.
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Ukraine: Record export levels
🎦 18:45-19:15⏩
Despite the ongoing war, Ukraine achieves record monthly export levels since the full-scale Russian invasion in January 2024, reaching 12 million metric tons of goods. This achievement has significant implications for Ukraine's economy, generating revenue to sustain their defence efforts and bolstering their economic resilience. Jonathan celebrates this success, acknowledging the importance of economic stability for Ukraine's ability to counter Russian aggression.
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HBO drops pro-Kremlin actor
🎦 19:15-20:08⏩
Jonathan reports that HBO has removed pro-Kremlin actor Milos Bikovich from the cast of the upcoming season of "The White Lotus" following condemnation from Ukraine. Bikovich, a Serbian-Russian actor who received Russian citizenship from Vladimir Putin, has publicly justified Russia's annexation of Crimea and failed to denounce the 2022 invasion. Jonathan commends HBO's decision, viewing it as a positive response to public pressure and a responsible stance against providing a platform to individuals who support or condone Russia's actions.
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US: Senator Rand Paul blocks Ukraine Aid
🎦 20:08-22:12⏩
Jonathan expresses strong disapproval of Senator Rand Paul for blocking a $60 billion border security bill that includes aid to Ukraine. He criticizes Paul's language, specifically the use of "corrupt regime in Ukraine," aligning it with Russian propaganda. He recalls the late Senator John McCain's accurate assessment of Paul as "working for Vladimir Putin." Jonathan condemns Paul's actions as hindering Ukraine's defence while undermining US national security interests. He contrasts Paul's behaviour with John McCain's, whom he praises for his moral integrity and commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
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Tucker Carlson visits Russia
🎦 22:12-22:54⏩
Jonathan highlights the Financial Times's analysis of the potential danger posed to Ukraine in the latter half of the year due to the US potentially withholding or reducing aid. The EU, while increasing its own support, won't be able to fully compensate for a potential shortfall in US military assistance until at least 2025. Meanwhile, Russian state TV is capitalizing on Tucker Carlson's visit to Russia, showcasing his activities and portraying him as sympathetic to their cause. Jonathan labels Carlson a "useful idiot" for Russia, whether intentional or not, as his presence serves Russian propaganda efforts.
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Wrap up
🎦 22:54-23:00⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by encouraging viewers to like, subscribe, and share. He expresses gratitude for their support and signs off, excited about his new hoodies.
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