US Politics Election Extra: Harris - Trump Showdown Update: Walz & Rallies

"They cannot fathom a campaign or any leaders who are not about themselves."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:29⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to an ATP Geopolitics video, a US Election Special. He's going to be talking about Tim Walz, the Democrats' presumptive vice-presidential nominee, and the big rally in Philadelphia. Plus there's other information to cover including some "serious rants" from Donald Trump.

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Trump's Truth Social "rants"

🎦 00:29-03:34⏩

Jonathan shares some quotes from Trump on Truth Social, describing them as "childish name-calling rants." In these posts, Trump makes derogatory comments about Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, and Chuck Schumer. Trump claims that Biden's presidency was stolen and calls for another debate. Jonathan then discusses betting odds, noting that for the first time, they favour Kamala Harris. He believes Trump will try to use this to get Biden back in the race. Jonathan then shares another Trump Truth Social post, where he labels Harris and Walz "the most radical left duo in American history." Trump suggests there's a movement to bring back Biden (though Jonathan believes there isn't).

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Tim Walz - Initial Thoughts

🎦 03:34-05:01⏩

Jonathan notes that he's warmed to Tim Walz since his last video, despite initially not expecting him to be the nominee. He acknowledges that some remain skeptical but points out that Walz has resonated well at rallies and among Democrats. The crucial question, according to Jonathan, is whether Walz can secure the centre ground and independent voters. He highlights the Democrats' two-pronged strategy: winning over swing voters and mobilizing apathetic Democrats. Jonathan believes that Walz might just be able to achieve this.

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Will Tim Walz appeal to the centre ground?

🎦 05:01-10:23⏩

Jonathan analyses whether Walz can win over swing voters. He references Sarah Longwell, a former Republican and "never-Trumper" who now focuses on understanding centre-right voters. Longwell believes that while Walz appeals to Democrats, he might not be the strongest choice for attracting centre-right voters, citing Josh Shapiro as a potentially better pick. She expresses her frustration that Walz hasn't had to "compete super hard" for centre-right votes. Jonathan points out that Walz has won over Republican voters in the past. Longwell acknowledges this but suggests those instances were either in wave years for Democrats or when the political landscape was different. She believes that Walz, despite being perceived as centre-right by Democrats, might not resonate with those voters in reality.

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Republican criticisms of Tim Walz

🎦 10:23-14:41⏩

Jonathan turns to Republican criticisms of Walz, highlighting Stephen Miller's harsh remarks, calling Walz a "moron," "incompetent," and "radical." Miller even suggests that Walz will turn the Midwest into a "third-world state," a claim that Jonathan finds ludicrous, given Minnesota's prosperity and ranking as the third happiest state in the US. Jonathan then addresses J.D. Vance's attack on Walz's military service, where Vance criticizes Walz for retiring from the Army National Guard before a deployment to Iraq. Jonathan refutes this by pointing out that Walz served for 24 years, exceeding retirement eligibility, and that the military could have stopped him from retiring if they needed him. A commenter, US Citizens for Ukraine, points out that many people retire from the military, and Walz's 24 years of service, including four years after 9/11, is honorable. Jonathan draws a parallel to Trump receiving multiple draft deferments during the Vietnam War due to alleged bone spurs. Adam Kinzinger, a veteran and former Republican lawmaker agrees stating that Walz had completed his duty. Jonathan concludes that this attack on Walz's military service is likely to be a major point of contention, and it remains to be seen if it gains any traction, particularly among centre ground voters.

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Adam Kinzinger on the Republican party

🎦 14:41-15:20⏩

Jonathan shares a comment directed at Adam Kinzinger, questioning why former Republicans like him become "attack dogs for the left." Kinzinger retorts that the Republican Party has been replaced by a "cult" and needs to be defeated before being rebuilt into a "sane party with adults."

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Would you rather have a pint with Walz or Vance?

🎦 15:20-16:08⏩

Jonathan poses a lighthearted test: who would be a better pub companion, Walz or Vance? He believes this is a good gauge of character and would personally choose Walz. He then plays a clip of a reporter asking JD Vance why people in Wisconsin would want to have a beer with him. Vance’s response is awkward and inauthentic (“because I like beer!”) leading Jonathan to call him “inorganic” and “forced.”

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Trump praises Tim Walz (audio)

🎦 16:20-16:56⏩

Jonathan shares audio of Trump praising Tim Walz for his handling of the George Floyd protests in Minnesota.

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Scott Ritter investigated

🎦 16:56-17:48⏩

Jonathan briefly digresses to mention that Scott Ritter, whom he labels a "Russian shill", is under investigation for potential violations of the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). He finds it “interesting” that Ritter was recently seen with RFK Jr., who is running as an independent but is considered a Trump ally.

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Harris-Walz vs Trump: A Difference in Politics and Approach

🎦 17:48-22:52⏩

Jonathan shifts back to the rally, emphasizing the "gaping chasm" between Walz and Trump's approaches to politics. He plays a clip of Pete Buttigieg praising the "joy" Walz brings to the campaign and highlighting his service-oriented character, evident in his roles as a teacher, coach, and military member. Buttigieg argues that these qualities make it difficult for the Trump campaign to attack Walz effectively, as it's challenging to criticize someone focused on serving others. Jonathan elaborates on this, emphasizing that Trump's narcissism and self-serving nature are fundamentally at odds with the concept of service. He asserts that Trump's decisions are always evaluated based on personal gain, not the country's well-being. He cites Trump's admiration for authoritarian leaders like Kim Jong-un, Jair Bolsonaro, Viktor Orban, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping, viewing it as a reflection of Trump's desire for absolute power rather than genuine leadership. Jonathan contrasts this with Walz's record of service, from coaching a losing football team to success, to his long teaching career, military service, and time as a congressman. He concludes that Walz's life exemplifies putting others first, a stark contrast to Trump's self-serving approach.

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Enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz Ticket in Wisconsin

🎦 22:52-24:53⏩

Jonathan talks about the excitement that Harris and Walz have generated with their recent rallies and speeches, contrasting this with the lack of enthusiasm for Trump. He shows images and videos of large, enthusiastic crowds at Harris-Walz events in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, emphasizing the authenticity of the excitement and the long lines of people waiting to attend. Jonathan plays a clip comparing the atmosphere at a Harris-Walz rally to a JD Vance event held on the same day. The contrast is stark: the Harris-Walz rally is full of energy and excitement, while the Vance event is sparsely attended and lacks enthusiasm. Jonathan concludes that this difference in enthusiasm reflects a broader trend, with the Harris-Walz ticket generating genuine excitement while the Trump campaign struggles to connect with voters.

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Highlights from the Harris-Walz Rally in Philadelphia

🎦 24:53-35:00⏩

Jonathan delves into the Harris-Walz rally in Philadelphia, commending Harris's speech as "absolutely brilliant," noting its strong delivery and construction. He suggests that the rally be viewed in its entirety as it showcases a positive vision for America, contrasting with the divisive tactics employed by Trump and Vance. Jonathan analyses a powerful moment where Harris emphasizes the promise of America, highlighting how their diverse backgrounds - Harris as the daughter of a working mother in Oakland, California and Walz as the son of farmers from rural Nebraska - illustrate this promise, culminating in chants of "USA!" from the energized crowd. Jonathan finds this display of patriotism particularly effective, especially as it emerges organically from a message of unity and hope. He praises the speechwriters for crafting such a powerful moment and emphasizes the stark contrast with the divisive rhetoric used by the Trump campaign.

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More Highlights from the Harris-Walz Rally - "The Joy"

🎦 35:00-41:06⏩

Jonathan continues exploring the positive energy of the Harris-Walz rally, noting the genuine excitement of the crowd and the way it contrasts with the lackluster response received by JD Vance. He highlights the warmth and enthusiasm in simple interactions, like those between Harris's husband and Walz's wife. He finds it heartening to see these genuine human connections, emphasizing the importance of joy and positivity in politics, especially in contrast to the negativity and division often seen from the Trump campaign. He then plays a clip of a Minnesota resident describing her reaction to Walz being announced as Harris’s running mate as "Boom! Winning! Big dad energy." Jonathan agrees and highlights the significance of Walz bringing "joy" to the campaign.

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Walz's TikTok Success and JD Vance's Campaign Mishap

🎦 41:06-43:52⏩

Jonathan observes that Walz's presence on TikTok has resonated with younger voters, especially Gen Z. He suggests that Walz's appeal to both young people and those in the political centre could prove beneficial in mobilizing the Democratic base and attracting swing voters. Jonathan then pokes fun at a JD Vance campaign event where a poorly designed sign reading "Kamala Chaos" is barely legible, making it look like Vance is supporting Harris. Jonathan concludes by discussing Laura Ingraham’s criticism that the Harris-Walz campaign is "all fluff, no substance." He sees this as projection, arguing that it's the Republican Party, particularly under Trump, that has lacked substance in recent years, focusing on culture wars and lacking concrete policy proposals. He contrasts this with the Harris-Walz campaign, which he believes has offered more substantive policy discussions.

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Polls and Election Predictions

🎦 43:52-46:50⏩

Jonathan moves on to discuss current polls, pointing out that down-ticket Democrats in swing states are performing well, suggesting a potential advantage for Harris. He cites several polls showing Harris ahead of Trump, including a Marquette poll where she leads by eight points when including third-party candidate RFK Jr. Jonathan sees these polls as a positive sign for Harris, noting a shift in momentum in her favour. Jonathan concludes by speculating on Trump's future campaign strategy. He questions why Trump is not actively campaigning and leaving JD Vance to handle the swing states. Given Vance’s poor performance in rallies and speeches, Jonathan believes this could be a significant mistake by the Trump campaign.

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Wrap up

🎦 46:50-46:50⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and signs off.

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