Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"Although it's quite anecdotal this article because it really concentrates on just two accounts, you can imagine that going forward this is going to be a problem for the Russians and it also will, you know, I guess drive a wedge between civilians and what their MOD are doing, what the government are doing. You know, you can't help but have a bad taste in your mouth for the whole war project if, you know, some of the worst convicts are being released back into your neighbourhood."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the daily update on Russian losses according to Ukrainian figures, with the usual caveats about propaganda and potential inaccuracy. The figures are fairly average, with 690 liquidated personnel, 3 tanks, 1 APC, 5 artillery systems, 1 helicopter, 4 drones, 12 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 2 pieces of special equipment destroyed.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Strikes and Explosions
- Ukraine claims to have shot down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter, presumably in the Donetsk region, as well as 4 Russian drones (2 reconnaissance and 2 Lancet kamikaze drones).
- In Kharkiv, there were 4-5 explosions from Russian S-300 missiles in the village of Kotlyarivka. No casualties but damage to cars, houses and a garage fire.
- In Belgorod, Russia, there was an explosion as they were firing S-300s, possibly a misfire.
- S-300s were also used by Russia to strike Sloviansk near Bakhmut, damaging the quarry district and several private houses but no casualties reported.
Footage
Limited footage today but two clips shown:
- A Ukrainian drone dropping a munition on a pile of dozens of mines, causing a large explosion. This prevents those mines being used against Ukrainian forces.
- Footage claimed to show a soldier throwing an anti-tank mine into a dugout. After a great throw landing it inside, there is a large explosion. An effective way to take out a dugout if true.
Wagner Convicts Terrorizing Hometowns
The Guardian reports on two cases of innocent people being murdered back in their Russian hometowns by Wagner convicts who have been pardoned and released by Putin. Jonathan notes that when you release the most troubled individuals in society, murderers and rapists, from prison without rehabilitation, this is the consequence when 5000 are sent back to where they previously terrorized. Although anecdotal, focusing on two accounts, Jonathan believes this will be a growing problem for Russia and will drive a wedge between civilians and the government/military, leaving a "bad taste" about the whole war project.
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Russian Military Command Wary of Offensive Failure
According to the ISW, Russian military command is inclined to stop offensive operations in Ukraine and prepare for defense, but are wary of telling Putin personally. Nationalist figures claim the Russian MOD has notified them of efforts to bring in 400,000 contract troops to have enough manpower to effectively freeze current front lines. The military is also transferring conscripts to maintain positions in Crimea, going against the conscript contract. Jonathan notes he wouldn't want to be the one to give Putin the "bad news" that the offensive has captured barely anything.
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Military Aid
- France is set to assist Ukraine in restoring rail networks, aiding with bridge construction, shipment of rails and locomotives, and light rail systems in cities.
- Spain's 6 Leopard 2 tanks and 20 other vehicles have left port and are on the way to Ukraine, possibly via Poland.
Geopolitics
- Brazil's President Lula responded to Zelensky's proposal to visit Ukraine by saying he will send his special assistant for international affairs Celso Amorim, the same one who previously visited Russia. Jonathan sees this as a clever move by Zelensky and probably the best that can be expected from Brazil at the moment, with Amorim at least providing some parity between the two countries.
- Russia is expelling a number of German diplomats in a "mirror action" to an unannounced move by Berlin, as relations continue to deteriorate.
- G7 agriculture ministers agreed to continue supporting Ukraine's agriculture sector which has been severely impacted by the war. Meanwhile, Russia continues smuggling operations to steal Ukrainian grain.
Wrap Up
Jonathan appreciates everyone watching and asks viewers to like, subscribe and share. He notes it is Sunday so he has to watch his son play rugby and has a busy day, so cannot guarantee videos but will try to get them out later. Ways to help the channel are in the description.
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