Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"When you give the enemy huge territories soaked with the blood of our combat comrades, this is now not called FDOT World world cacking himself"
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian General Staff's claim that Russian losses have passed 200,000 liquidated personnel since the start of the war. He believes Ukrainian figures are more reliable than Russian ones, which are often physically impossible. The daily average losses have increased significantly in the last 5 months compared to earlier in the war.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Casualties
- Injured Wagner fighters are reportedly being secretly treated at a former COVID hospital near Moscow, according to Russian Telegram channels
- A Russian soldier who was saved by following a Ukrainian drone's instructions out of a trench describes terrible conditions with many dead bodies piled up
- Prigozhin blames the Russian MOD for losing territory around Bakhmut that Wagner captured, saying they "effed off and cacked themselves"
Missile Attacks
- Overnight, Russia launched around 30 missiles including Kalibr, Kh-101/Kh-555, Iskanders, and Shahed drones. Ukraine claims to have shot down all but one Kh-101/Kh-555.
- Jonathan suggests Russia should target cities other than Kyiv which has the most air defenses to have more success. Odesa was hit with significant explosions.
- Damage to a Patriot air defense system near Kyiv from a Russian attack was minimal and the system remains functional, likely just damage to a launcher from falling debris.
Crimean Railway Attack
Partisans blew up a railway near Simferopol in occupied Crimea. A 15-meter deep crater was left under the rails, stopping railway connection between Simferopol and Sevastopol. No casualties were reported.
Return to top⤴️
Trusting Sources
Jonathan points out the importance of being wary of claims from both sides in the war. He notes that pro-Russian sources like Clive Engel simply repeat Russian MOD claims without evidence, while there is verifiable proof of civilian targets like a supermarket and car dealership being hit in Mykolaiv, contrary to Russian claims of destroying an ammunition depot.
Return to top⤴️
Frontline Update
- Bakhmut may fall imminently but Jonathan argues the symbolic loss of the town itself matters less than whether its function of fixing and attriting Russian troops can still be fulfilled from Ukrainian positions west of the town.
- Mike Martin suggests Ukraine is making small investments along the frontline to get Russia to commit forces, tying down their reserves before choosing where to launch a major counteroffensive.
Elon Musk and Starlink
Jonathan expresses concern about Elon Musk's conspiratorial thinking and pro-Russian statements, as well as similar comments from Musk's father. Since Starlink is crucial to Ukraine's military success, he warns Musk's beliefs could translate into problems for Ukraine if they impact his decisions on providing Starlink services.
Return to top⤴️
Kinzhal Missile Developers Arrested
Three scientists involved in developing Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missile have been arrested and face treason charges. This comes as the missile, which Russia claimed was unstoppable, has been shot down by Ukrainian air defenses, suggesting it is not performing as well as claimed.
Return to top⤴️
Military Aid
- Poland has given Ukraine almost all its MiG-29 jets but is not ready to provide F-16s. The UK and Netherlands are leading an effort to train Ukrainian pilots and build a coalition to supply F-16s, but no final decision has been made.
- France is considering supplying SCALP cruise missiles to Ukraine.
- Turkish-supplied DPICM cluster munitions have been found in Ukraine, which could lead the US to supply its own large stockpile of these effective but controversial weapons.
- A Ukrainian brigade of 3,000-5,000 soldiers completed training in Sweden on Leopard 2 tanks, CV90 IFVs and Archer SPGs ahead of the anticipated counteroffensive.
- Montenegro pledges to give Ukraine everything needed to win the war.
Geopolitics
- Russia has agreed to a 2-month extension of the vital grain export deal, according to Turkey.
- Switzerland seized over $113 million in assets from Ukrainian oligarch Kostyantyn Zhevago. Ukraine hopes to apply a mechanism to transfer the funds for its own use.
- A Chinese special representative visited Ukraine and met with the foreign minister, a positive development for keeping China engaged and less likely to arm Russia.
- Hungary threatens to block further EU sanctions and aid for Ukraine unless a Hungarian bank is removed from Ukraine's list of international war sponsors.
Turkish Elections
Turkey's presidential election is going to a second round after no candidate won a majority. The opposition candidate favored by Ukraine trails incumbent Erdogan 44% to 49%. A nationalist candidate won 5%, with his voters expected to favor Erdogan in the runoff. Erdogan will likely win, continuing his balancing act between Russia and Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan hopes the update was interesting and informative. He requests viewers to like, subscribe and share the video. He will have a frontline update video out soon.
Return to top⤴️