Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Wagenknecht, Unsustainable losses, & Self-Correction
Table of Contents 📖
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"The main thing is to survive this damn war. These jackals like the bastard Putin, etc. This is the most important problem. Winter or cold are nothing compared to what this scumbag is doing. This asshole has already destroyed half of Ukraine. What else is there to say?"
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares a quote from a resident of Odessa about the electricity blackouts expected this winter. The resident says surviving the war and stopping Putin is the most important thing, and that the winter cold is nothing compared to what Putin is doing to Ukraine. Jonathan agrees this captures the strong Ukrainian spirit and resolve to stop Putin.
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Epistemic humility and self-correction
Jonathan discusses the importance of epistemic humility as an analyst, which means periodically reviewing one's prior work to evaluate its accuracy, identify mistakes, and understand the reasons for incorrect conclusions. He shares analysis from Tatarigami who admits he was wrong in downplaying the probability of a major Russian offensive by the end of the year. Tatarigami explains his reasoning at the time and why the Russians proceeded with the offensive despite the foreseen high losses. This highlights the need to thoroughly reassess the enemy's capabilities and the critical importance of military aid to Ukraine.
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Why are Russian losses unsustainable?
Jonathan explores the question of why the Russians are not changing tactics despite suffering unsustainable losses. Possible reasons include:
- The losses are actually sustainable because the stats are too high or Russia has access to more equipment than we think. Jonathan believes the verified loss numbers are indeed very high.
- Russian commanders don't know the true scale of losses due to lying up the chain of command (vranyo).
- Russia knows the losses but is gambling that Ukraine will be worse off and capitulate at some point.
- As a commenter suggests, Putin is willing to throw away Russian lives and assets because his only goal is self-preservation. Losing the war is an existential threat to Putin personally. The corruption in Russia means Putin profits from the conflict even as Russians die and equipment is destroyed.
Russian information warfare
Jonathan notes how a pro-Ukraine open source intelligence account has recently been heavily promoting pro-Palestine and anti-Israel views, as well as amplifying pro-Russian voices like Jackson Hinkle and Scott Ritter. He questions whether Jackson Hinkle's sudden popularity on Twitter is organic or the result of Russian troll factories amplifying his message as part of their information warfare tactics.
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Sahra Wagenknecht - Kremlin's friend in Germany
Jonathan shares a thread about controversial German politician Sahra Wagenknecht, known for her praise of Russia and attempts to stop military aid to Ukraine. Key points:
- Wagenknecht has promoted Russian talking points, claiming Russia has no interest in invading Ukraine and that NATO forced Moscow into a corner.
- She opposed sanctions on Russia and organised rallies with the far-right AfD party to end military aid to Ukraine. These seem linked to Kremlin efforts to create an anti-war coalition in Germany.
- Wagenknecht plans to start a new far-left populist pro-Kremlin party that could get significant support.
- Her ex-husband founded a "shadow government" in Russia and suggested Wagenknecht should lead Germany, calling her "incorruptible".
The analysis suggests Wagenknecht is a long-time Kremlin ally ready to prioritize Russian interests over supporting Ukraine. Her case illustrates how pro-Kremlin entities operate in Europe with Russian influence.
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Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe and share the video, and thanks them for their support.
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