Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"So you know, I'm a betting man. I've got pretty good reason to bet that the subsequent Ukrainian claim concerning the strike on any given airfield is going to be somewhat correct, right?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:00⏩
Jonathan begins by explaining that his first video of the day was restricted by YouTube, so he made it members-only whilst appealing the restriction. He then released the content on a live stream to make sure everyone got the information. YouTube has since lifted the restriction, but it took a day to overturn the appeal. He reiterated that all his content is free to view, but YouTube sometimes restricts videos, which can make it appear that he is charging for access. He apologised for the confusion and reminded viewers they are welcome to become members if they wish to.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses According to the Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 02:00-03:41⏩
According to the Ukrainian general staff, Russia lost 1,310 personnel, 12 tanks, 8 APVs, 74 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 62 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 19 pieces of special equipment. The number of personnel losses is higher than usual, and the number of artillery systems lost is particularly high. Jonathan questions whether this is linked to the recent release of a video montage showcasing captured Russian artillery pieces. However, he acknowledges that the general staff may not see the video footage until after the data has been reported. The high number of special equipment losses is also highlighted.
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Analysing Ukrainian Equipment Losses with Perun
🎦 03:41-05:49⏩
Jonathan discusses the work of Perun, a YouTuber who provides analysis of Ukrainian equipment losses and resupplies. He highlights a video by Perun that focuses on infantry fighting vehicles, specifically the BMP-1, BMP-2, and American Bradley. Jonathan explains that the BMP-1 and BMP-2 are the most common infantry fighting vehicles in Ukrainian service, and the Bradley was chosen because it is the only Western infantry fighting vehicle with enough visually confirmed losses to allow for analysis. The chart Perun uses splits losses into three categories: blue (lightly damaged), orange (damaged and abandoned/captured), and red (destroyed). Jonathan points out that for the BMPs, the destroyed category is significantly higher than for the Bradleys, suggesting that the Bradleys have higher survivability.
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Visual Confirmation of Bradley Survivability
🎦 05:49-08:10⏩
Jonathan continues analysing Perun's chart, comparing the percentage of losses for each vehicle type. The BMP-1 and BMP-2 have a similar distribution with a high percentage of destroyed vehicles (around 80%), while the Bradley has a significantly lower destroyed percentage (below 50%). Jonathan explains that while this is not a perfect proxy for crew survivability, it suggests that Ukrainian operators in Bradleys have a higher chance of survival compared to those in BMPs. This is supported by anecdotal evidence from Ukrainian soldiers and videos showing heavily damaged BMPs that were still able to be recovered. He also points out that the Bradleys are easier to repair and recover than the BMPs.
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Ukrainian and Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 08:10-09:48⏩
Jonathan shifts to discussing equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's loss list, noting a roughly 3-1 or 2.5-1 ratio of Russian losses to Ukrainian losses. He highlights some of the Ukrainian losses, including a Bogdana self-propelled howitzer, several other howitzers, a self-propelled gun, some BMPs and a Bradley. He mentions that Ukraine has lost potentially over 100 Bradleys and suggests they will likely receive more soon, especially as the US is reportedly planning to increase military aid before the November elections. Jonathan also highlights the increasing presence of Western equipment on Ukrainian loss lists, which he attributes to Ukraine's depletion of Soviet era equipment and preference for Western equipment due to its higher survivability.
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High-Value Russian Losses
🎦 09:48-11:09⏩
Jonathan focuses on the Russian losses, highlighting the destruction of an airport radar and two Su-30SM jets at the Saki Air Base in Crimea. This was a result of a strike on the 26th of July, which was evident in satellite imagery. He calls these losses "incredibly high-value" and points out that this represents a bad week for Russia in terms of equipment loss, especially given these high-value pieces. He also mentions that the Russians have been losing a tremendous amount of equipment compared to the Ukrainians on a daily basis.
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Wagner Losses in Mali
🎦 11:09-12:15⏩
Jonathan discusses the reported deaths of 80 Wagner soldiers and the capture of 15 others in Mali. He highlights the horrific video evidence of the ambush and mentions that Wagner-linked channels have acknowledged the significant losses. He then details the reported deaths of a commander from Bakhmut and Soledar, a commander from the Grey Zone Telegram channel, and Sergei Shevchenko, a Wagner commander with the call sign "Pond". He notes that there have been rumors of Ukrainian involvement in the ambush, which is further supported by the release of the 15 prisoners by the attackers, along with a declaration of solidarity with Ukraine.
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Attack on a Russian Training Ground in Luhansk
🎦 12:15-13:32⏩
Jonathan reports on an alleged Ukrainian strike on a Russian training ground in Luhansk using Atakans ballistic missiles. The strike targeted servicemen from the 228th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 90th Tank Division, who were preparing to reinforce positions near Ocheratina. Sources report 19 killed and 71 injured, however Jonathan urges caution regarding the accuracy of these figures. He highlights the significance of the attack on a training facility in the Russian rear.
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Ukrainian Intelligence and Russian Troll Tactics
🎦 13:32-16:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the reporting of military events, highlighting the difference in approach between Ukrainian intelligence and Russian trolls. He cites an example of Ukrainian intelligence reporting the destruction of a Tu-22 strategic bomber at Olenya Air Base, 1,800 km from the front line. He advises viewers to take such claims with a pinch of salt, but emphasizes that Ukrainian intelligence generally tends to be more believable than Russian sources. He critiques a Russian troll, "Tezi", who claims there is no evidence to support the Ukrainian claim. He argues that it is more logical to consider the prior probabilities of Russian and Ukrainian claims being true, given the historical pattern of Russian disinformation. He supports his reasoning by citing previous cases where Ukrainian claims were later confirmed by satellite imagery.
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Confirmation of a Strike on Olenya Air Base
🎦 16:18-17:06⏩
Jonathan provides further information about the strike on Olenya Air Base, stating that satellite imagery confirms the damage to two Tu-22M3 aircraft during the attack on the 27th of July. However, he acknowledges that higher quality images are needed for full confirmation.
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Strike on Saki Airfield
🎦 17:06-18:03⏩
Jonathan discusses the strike on Saki Airfield, using information from several sources. He confirms the destruction of two Su-30SM jets and a sky radar, as well as the deaths of two personnel and injuries to four. He references information from Andrew Perpetua's loss list, Special Recursion Cat's reporting, and satellite images. This information is also confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defence, although their narrative suggests they shot down two Atakans ballistic missiles and that the strike resulted in the loss of two fighter jets, the destruction of the Nebo radar system, and the deaths of two personnel and injuries to four.
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Drone Attacks on Russian Territory
🎦 18:03-19:34⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian territory, noting that nine out of 10 Shahed drones were shot down, along with one Kh-59 cruise missile. He mentions that 41 attack drones were used in six regions of Russia overnight, which is likely a lower figure than the actual number used as the Russians often only report on the drones they successfully intercept. He also reports that two electrical substations in Orel and Belgorod regions caught fire as a result of drone attacks.
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Targeting Energy Infrastructure
🎦 19:34-22:03⏩
Jonathan examines the Ukrainian strategy of targeting Russian energy infrastructure, discussing the ethical considerations involved. He acknowledges the potential impact on the civilian population, but argues that these strikes can be seen as both a way to disrupt the Russian war effort and create discontent amongst the population. He raises the question of whether energy infrastructure constitutes a legitimate military target, noting that it was widely considered so during WWII, and current American military handbooks generally suggest it is. However, he recognizes the possibility of war crimes being committed, especially when energy infrastructure is used to supply civilian areas. He encourages viewers to share their thoughts on the matter, highlighting the complexities of the situation.
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Fighting in Donetsk Region
🎦 22:03-23:45⏩
Jonathan reports on the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk region, highlighting the comments of Zelensky who described the situation as "extremely challenging". He notes that Russian forces have focused their offensive operations in the direction of Prokrosk, which he previously described as a challenging area. He outlines the difficulties of both sides: the Ukrainians facing a shortage of manpower and waiting for mobilized troops to finish training, and the Russians being willing to throw untrained soldiers into combat, which will eventually lead to them struggling to sustain losses in terms of both personnel and equipment.
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Connection between Mali and Ukraine
🎦 23:45-24:28⏩
Jonathan highlights the connection between the events in Mali and Ukraine, specifically mentioning that the 13th Brigade of the Ukrainian NSU (National Guard of Ukraine) has congratulated the Tuareg warriors of Azawad for their victory over the Russian invaders. He believes there is a sense of solidarity between the Malian rebels and Ukraine.
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Adam Kinzinger vs Douglas MacGregor
🎦 24:28-27:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a dispute between Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican lawmaker in the US, and Douglas MacGregor, a former US military advisor. MacGregor has been spreading disinformation about the war in Ukraine, such as claims that 18 SAS members were killed in a strike on Odessa. He has been discredited by numerous sources, including Pedro Baños, a retired Spanish Army Colonel, and Adam Kinzinger, who has publicly called MacGregor a "collaborator and traitor". Jonathan notes that MacGregor has been stripped of his military title due to his controversial pronouncements.
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F-16s Arriving in Ukraine
🎦 27:43-29:07⏩
Jonathan discusses the Washington Post report that F-16s will arrive in Ukraine within a few weeks to bolster air defences. This aligns with previous reports that they would be deployed by the end of summer. He reiterates the general consensus that the F-16s will primarily be used for air defence, shooting down missiles, drones and enemy aircraft rather than directly engaging ground forces. He highlights the benefits of this approach, including giving Ukrainian pilots experience in a real warzone, familiarizing them with operations, and allowing for logistical and maintenance teams to be trained and air bases to be secured.
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Russian Monitoring of Ukrainian Airfields
🎦 29:07-29:51⏩
Jonathan mentions a report that the Russians are closely monitoring Ukrainian airfields, presumably in preparation for the arrival of the F-16s. He believes that the Russians will use this information to target the new aircraft.
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Dam Failures in Russia
🎦 29:51-30:45⏩
Jonathan reports on the failure of another dam in Russia, this time in the Belomoro-Balachitskyi channel in Karelia. He highlights the frequency of these incidents, which he believes is now beyond the realm of coincidence. He suggests that this is not solely due to climate change and points to the possibility of poor maintenance, corruption, and the diversion of funds to the war effort. He notes the irony of this occurring while Putin and other officials were touring naval ships in a show of force.
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New Russian Naval Salute
🎦 30:45-32:05⏩
Jonathan brings up the new salute used by Russian naval personnel, which he describes as almost identical to the Nazi salute. He expresses disbelief at the choice of this salute given Russia's constant accusations of Nazism against its opponents. He finds the irony and hypocrisy of this situation to be astounding.
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Wrap up
🎦 32:05-32:13⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with a brief thank you to his viewers, expressing his hope to speak soon and wishing them well.
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