Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update, struggling a bit to find his words but persevering nonetheless.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-01:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures on Russian losses, noting they seem lower than in previous weeks.
- Personnel: 580 (around average)
- Tanks: 1
- APVs: 11
- Artillery systems: 15
- Vehicles & fuel tanks: 34
- Special equipment: 3
He speculates that this could indicate reduced Russian offensive operations, potentially due to resource constraints. Despite the lower figures, General Syrsky highlights ongoing Russian attempts to break through in Avdiivka.
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Addressing Russian Troll Claims & Data Accuracy
🎦 01:31-03:17⏩
Jonathan addresses claims from a Russian troll who dismissed the General Staff figures as nonsense. He emphasises the established protocols and criteria used for reporting, highlighting:
- Personnel loss estimations involve educated guesses but still adhere to reporting structures.
- Equipment loss figures are likely more accurate due to photographic/video evidence.
He stresses that while estimations are involved, the figures provide a valuable snapshot of the situation.
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NATO's Confirmation of Russian Losses
🎦 03:17-04:07⏩
, 09:36-11:06⏩
Jonathan discusses NATO's confirmation of significant recent Russian losses.
- NATO estimates over 350,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded, based on Western intelligence.
- This aligns with the upward trend observed in Ukrainian General Staff figures and independent sources like Oryx.
- While the exact sources of NATO's intelligence are unknown, their assessment lends credibility to the overall assessment of heavy Russian losses.
Verification Efforts: Oryx, Warspotting, and Andrew Perpetua
🎦 04:07-05:49⏩
Jonathan highlights the work of Oryx, Warspotting, and Andrew Perpetua in verifying Russian equipment losses.
- Their meticulous efforts involve geolocating and cross-referencing visual evidence of destroyed equipment.
- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of their work, noting that while not all losses are captured online, their data aligns with the trends reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Illustrative Example: Drone Footage and Reporting Lag
🎦 04:49-05:49⏩
Jonathan shares an anecdote from Constantine (who works with Andrew Perpetua) about a drone donation to a Ukrainian unit.
- The unit had used the drone effectively, destroying significant Russian equipment.
- However, none of this footage was uploaded online, illustrating the lag between actual losses and publicly available information.
Detailed Breakdown of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 05:49-09:36⏩
Jonathan provides a detailed breakdown of visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, emphasizing the cumulative impact of these losses on Russian capabilities. Key points include:
- Significant losses of infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs, BTRs).
- Steady attrition of tanks, highlighting the long-term impact on Russian armoured forces.
- Losses of Bukankas (military trucks), SUVs, and civilian vehicles, indicating ongoing logistical challenges for Russia.
- Increased destruction of Chinese Desert Cross 1000-3 buggies recently acquired by Russia.
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 06:33-06:50⏩
Jonathan briefly acknowledges Ukrainian losses, noting a couple of tanks, a British FV103 Spartan APC, and other equipment. He highlights the loss of a Free Russian Legion tank north of Ukraine.
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Free Russian Legion and Activities North of the Border
🎦 06:50-07:40⏩
, 11:45-13:42⏩
, 25:39-28:33⏩
Jonathan discusses ongoing operations by the Free Russian Legion and other anti-Putin forces north of the Ukrainian border. He notes:
- A video released by the Russians shows several Free Russian Legion fighters killed or wounded in an artillery strike, though the number appears lower than initially claimed.
- Despite setbacks, the Free Russian Legion remains active, and footage of their operations continues to surface.
- The timing of their operations, coinciding with the Russian presidential election weekend, is significant as it aims to undermine Putin's narrative of strength and stability.
Jonathan encourages viewers to share their thoughts on the situation in Belgorod and speculates that Russian media is likely downplaying the significance of these operations for propaganda purposes.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 13:42-16:17⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight attacks on Ukraine, noting:
- Eight missiles and 27 Shahed drones targeted various regions, including Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, and Vinnytsia.
- While all drones were reportedly intercepted, falling debris in Vinnytsia caused damage and casualties.
- Jonathan questions whether allowing the drones to reach their intended targets might be preferable to risking debris over populated areas.
- He highlights the increasing Russian focus on targeting residential areas, questioning the claimed lack of military objectives.
- Ukrainian prosecutors claim Russia launched 50 North Korean missiles, with debris found in Odesa tentatively identified as North Korean in origin.
Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 16:17-17:32⏩
Jonathan reports on strikes within Russia, noting:
- A significant explosion at an oil refinery in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow, caught on video.
- Drone activity and an explosion reported near Burtolinovka in the Voronezh region, potentially targeting a military airfield.
- This marks the second such incident in the area in recent days.
Confusion and Uncertainty Surrounding Belgorod Incidents
🎦 17:32-20:21⏩
Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the situation in Belgorod, particularly regarding the cause of damage and explosions. He notes:
- Conflicting reports attribute the destruction to RM-70 missile strikes by the Free Russian Legion, Russian air defence activity, or shelling.
- He finds it unlikely that the Free Russian Legion would intentionally target civilian areas within Belgorod.
- Jonathan plays audio of air raid sirens in Belgorod, drawing parallels to the anxiety Ukrainians face under similar circumstances and contrasting this with Russian propaganda mocking Ukrainian air raid sirens.
- He invites viewer opinions on the events in Belgorod, acknowledging the lack of clarity surrounding the situation.
Increased Effectiveness of Russian Targeting and Possible Explanations
🎦 20:21-24:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the increased effectiveness of Russian targeting, particularly their ability to strike high-value Ukrainian equipment.
- He refutes claims attributing this to Starlink use or General Syrsky's leadership, emphasizing Russian adaptation as the more likely explanation.
- He cites insights from Erlend, highlighting two key factors:
- 1
- 2
Jonathan agrees with this assessment, adding that increased risk-taking by Ukrainian forces (e.g., bringing equipment forward to counter Russian aviation bombs) also contributes to their vulnerability.
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General Syrsky's Assessment of the Avdiivka Front
🎦 24:23-25:04⏩
Jonathan reiterates General Syrsky's assessment of the Avdiivka front, emphasizing the intensity of the fighting.
- Russian forces are pushing hard for a breakthrough, supported by heavy artillery fire and FPV drones.
- Syrsky's comments underscore the challenging situation faced by Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka.
Troop Rotations and the Decisive Spring/Summer Period
🎦 25:04-25:39⏩
Jonathan mentions the ongoing troop rotations implemented by General Syrsky.
- This aims to provide much-needed rest and resupply for Ukrainian units engaged in heavy fighting.
- He quotes EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who believes the outcome of the war will be determined in the coming spring and summer months.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of continued EU and US support for Ukraine during this critical period.
Russian Presidential Election and Disappearing Ink Allegations
🎦 28:33-29:45⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the ongoing Russian presidential election, noting a video circulating online that appears to show disappearing ink being used on ballot papers.
- He expresses skepticism about the legitimacy of the election process and questions the purpose of such ink.
- Jonathan suggests this could be a method for manipulating vote counts.
Propaganda and Absurdity in Russian Elections
🎦 29:45-31:41⏩
Jonathan highlights the use of pro-Putin propaganda during the Russian election.
- He shows images of cardboard cutouts of Tucker Carlson at polling stations, interpreting this as a sign of Russian admiration for Carlson's pro-Kremlin stance.
- Videos of Russian citizens engaging in bizarre behaviour while voting are presented, with Jonathan juxtaposing these scenes against the armed presence in occupied Ukrainian territories.
- This contrast underscores the difference between genuine democratic processes and staged events designed to project an image of support for Putin.
Elon Musk's Free Speech Hypocrisy and Censorship
🎦 32:09-36:09⏩
Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk's hypocrisy regarding free speech on Twitter.
- He recounts how Musk, after declaring a welcoming platform for all political spectrums, provided a platform for Tucker Carlson to spread pro-Russian propaganda.
- He then criticizes Musk's subsequent partnership with Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat who has become a Trump supporter, showing a clear bias towards right-wing voices.
- Jonathan highlights the irony of Musk firing CNN's Don Lemon after a single interview where Lemon asked challenging questions about Musk's ketamine use and Twitter's policies.
- He argues that Musk's actions contradict his self-proclaimed free speech absolutism, highlighting the manipulation and censorship occurring on Twitter, especially towards Ukrainian news sources.
Wrap up
🎦 36:09-36:11⏩
Jonathan concludes the video with a thank you and goodbye message to his viewers.
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"I just find it funny that, you know, this man [Elon Musk] says he's a free speech absolutist and it turns out that he just amplifies his own voice and people he likes, and anyone he doesn't like he either like cancels them, cancels their show, or downgrades their content."
