Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Russians then want to continue the offensive as far as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, down to the borders of the Donbass and to the Dnipro River if they can. We are resisting and meanwhile we are preparing for the next counter offensive."
Hello Team!
Jonathan opens with the Ukrainian released figures for Russian losses from the previous day, which he finds indicative and useful despite the caveats about propaganda and inaccuracy. The figures show 820 liquidated personnel, which is well above average, along with losses of tanks, APCs, artillery systems, MLRS, an aircraft, drones and vehicles/fuel tanks.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Claims
The Ukrainian General Staff claim they shot down a Su-25 close support aircraft, two Orlan-10 drones and a Lancet kamikaze drone. These are not included in the daily loss figures for some reason.
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Bakhmut Update
According to a prominent drone operator/analyst on social media called Magyar, the Russians are now starting to collect their dead bodies in Bakhmut, even requesting a "sanitary day" to do so. He sees this as a clear indication that regular Russian forces have supplanted the Wagner group in the area, as Wagner were not previously concerned with retrieving bodies.
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Zelensky on Defending Bakhmut
President Zelensky stated that while it is important for Ukraine to protect Bakhmut, it should not be done at any cost or for everyone to die. They will fight for as long as is reasonable. If the Russians take Bakhmut, they will want to continue their offensive towards Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, the Donbas borders and the Dnipro River. Ukraine is resisting while preparing their next counter-offensive.
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Territorial Defence Takes Down Cruise Missile
In Odesa, territorial defence volunteers managed to shoot down a $2 million Russian cruise missile using a machine gun. The volunteers joked it was like "pheasant or duck hunting" and apparently this is not the first time a cruise missile has been downed by heavy machine gun fire in this war.
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Investigation Launched into Death of Mobilised Ukrainian
An investigation has been launched in Ukraine after a man died one month after mobilisation. There have been some criticisms of forced mobilisation in certain areas. Friends of the deceased man, Bogdan Pokitka, say he had no training and died at the front just 4 days after being sent to the contact line. The fact an investigation has been launched contrasts with Russia's approach of suppressing and punishing such complaints from their own mobilised troops.
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US General Says F-16s and Long-Range Missiles Could Help Ukraine Beat Russia
According to a Politico report, a US General privately told lawmakers that providing F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles to Ukraine could help them defeat Russia. The US has so far been reticent to provide planes or long-range missiles to Ukraine for their own reasons.
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"Rage Against the War" Rally in Washington DC
An anti-war rally was held in Washington DC, amplified by outlets like Fox News. However, it seemed to be a farce, involving a disparate mix of far-right figures, some left-wing personalities more focused on anti-vax views, outright neo-Nazis, and Soviet/Russian flags and memorabilia. Around 750,000 people attended but many poured scorn on the rally, doubting the sincerity of its pacifist message.
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Stolen Ukrainian Grain Transiting Occupied Regions
Stolen Ukrainian grain from occupied regions is being transported through Mariupol into Zaporizhzhia Oblast on a daily basis, causing traffic jams. The Russians have been taking food from occupied areas and essentially stealing it, rather than proper export, since the beginning of the war, shipping it out via ports or by land back to Russia.
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US Avenger Air Defence Systems Heading to Ukraine
US-supplied Avenger short-range air defence systems, which can protect against low-flying aerial targets like cruise missiles, aircraft and helicopters, have been spotted in Germany and Poland and are reportedly on their way to Ukraine. The Avenger is a mobile system consisting of a rocket launcher mounted on a Humvee-like vehicle.
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More Air Defence and Tanks for Ukraine
- The Dutch PM has said Ukraine will receive a Patriot air defence system from the Netherlands within at least 2 weeks.
- The British government expects less than 50 Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks will arrive in Ukraine by April, when counter-offensives are expected to begin. This is less than a quarter of the 320 tanks promised to Ukraine from various nations.
US Warns China Against Providing Lethal Aid to Russia
The US Ambassador to the UN said China would overstep the line by supplying lethal support to Russia. There are suspicions China is already providing non-lethal support like uniforms and rations, as well as DJI drones used by Russian forces. The US wants to stamp this out now before it expands into provision of lethal weapons.
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Foreign Delegations in Kyiv, Rumours of Biden Visit
An Israeli parliamentary delegation is currently in Kyiv, and Italian PM Georgia Meloni is also due to arrive today. However, rumours suggest the centre of Kyiv has been closed down, which could indicate a visit by US President Biden. This remains unconfirmed so far.
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British Guard Sentenced for Spying for Russia
A former British RAF serviceman turned security guard at the UK embassy in Berlin has been sentenced to 13 years in prison for spying for Russia. He was caught photocopying or photographing sensitive material from embassy offices and passing it to the Russians. A Russian flag and other suspicious items were found in his apartment. His motivations remain unclear but the case highlights an ongoing issue with Russian espionage in Western countries.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes there will be further developments throughout the day, especially if the rumours of a Biden visit to Kyiv are true. He will keep viewers updated. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video, and to check out the upcoming frontline update.
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