Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"When you add this to what Blinken said yesterday about the state of the Russian and Ukrainian armies, it's clear that those with pretty good intelligence are growing increasingly bullish on the chances for a major success from the Ukrainian counteroffensive."
Hello Team!
Jonathan apologises for the late video, assuring he hasn't been assassinated by the FSB. He had a good night at a concert and is moving a bit slower after a late finish and a bottle of port.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 560 liquidated Russian personnel, higher than recent days
- Significant losses: 10 tanks, 12 APCs, 32 artillery pieces, 7 MLRS, 7 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- The high artillery losses reflect Ukraine's efforts to take out Russian artillery, particularly in Zaporizhzhia
- 832 Ukrainian fire missions along the front line vs 63 Russian shells, showing an asymmetry in battlefield shaping
Confirmed Russian Troop Losses
MediaZona and BBC Russia have confirmed the identities of 24,400 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine through open source information. This is the bare minimum, with the true number likely much higher, similar to how visually confirmed equipment losses are the minimum. The Ukrainian claim of 209,000 Russian losses exists somewhere above this minimum.
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Situation in Zaporizhzhia
Russian reporter Sladkov, known for reassuring posts, says the Russian army completely lacks counter-battery fire in Zaporizhzhia and is under heavy Ukrainian artillery fire. He notes hundreds of Ukrainian shells with zero Russian response, calling into question what kind of war this is. This supports Ukrainian claims of fire mission asymmetry.
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Strikes on Russian Targets
- Several Su-34 fighter bombers and a Pantsir air defence system were reportedly destroyed at the Kursk airfield in Russia, 70 miles from the Ukrainian border
- Ukrainian strikes continue on Russian facilities in occupied territories, including a big strike on Berdyansk
- A drone exploded near an oil refinery in Smolensk, Russia, for the second day, likely to fix Russian air defences
- A car bombing in Zaporizhzhia killed a pro-Russian restaurant owner who treated invaders as VIPs
Military Aid
- Trains carrying worse-for-wear tanks were spotted in Perm, Russia, likely headed for repair, highlighting the importance of sabotaging Russian railways
- UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says there's a real possibility Ukraine could retake Crimea this year as Russia runs out of equipment and collapses when punched in the right places
- Germany pledged 66 FFG APCs, a modern vehicle designed to have many variants
- First visual confirmation of a Ukrainian jet armed with two Storm Shadow missiles in the war theatre
- Video of Leopard 2A6 tanks in Ukrainian training shows their impressive capabilities
Ukrainian Drone Program
A CNN article details Ukraine's secretive drone program, with the government working to find and scale up production of various drone types. The goal is to produce up to 200,000 drones by year-end, with contracts already signed for 2,000. Different drone models serve different purposes, from cheap, expendable drones to long-range ones that can reach Moscow. While Ukraine didn't directly acknowledge the recent Moscow drone attacks, an official hinted at a "revolution" in long-range drone production.
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Geopolitics
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns against a "Potemkin peace" in Ukraine, saying a premature ceasefire would legitimize Russia's land grab and punish the victim
- In a WSJ interview, Zelensky expressed readiness for the counteroffensive but acknowledged it could go many ways
- He fears a less supportive US administration after the 2024 elections and urged NATO to offer a clear membership path
- Zelensky said Ukraine needs more Patriot missile defence systems to protect citizens and frontline troops, acknowledging high expected troop losses due to Russian air superiority
- The Swiss Parliament voted against allowing re-export of Swiss arms to Ukraine
- German police raided properties linked to a woman romantically involved with a Ukrainian soldier on a yacht near the Nord Stream blast site, suggesting they suspect Ukrainian involvement
Wrap up
Jonathan apologises again for the delay and says he needs to have breakfast and get on with some frontline map analysis. He thanks viewers for their support and asks them to like, subscribe, and share.
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