Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Intercepts, Tank losses, Bakhmut, "Now I am the master"
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's absurd that I even have to wonder if the Russians are able to take one tiny village or not. The answer should of course be obviously yes. Russian armed forces have truly degenerated in ways I couldn't even think were possible before February 2022."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an extra Ukraine war update on Boxing Day, December 26th with some "extra nuggets and juicy tidbits of information" to give a greater understanding of the war.
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Russia on Fire Again
Another 2000 square meter warehouse in Novosibirsk, Russia caught fire after an explosion. Jonathan speculates this could be war-related, or potentially insurance fraud due to the tanking Russian economy and high rate of mall and shopping center closures. Novosibirsk is located far east of Ukraine, northeast of Kazakhstan.
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Ukraine May Have More Tanks Than Russia
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, during the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine captured:
- 460 Russian tanks
- 92 self-propelled howitzers
- 448 infantry fighting vehicles
- 195 armored personnel carriers
- 44 rocket systems
This alone could have tipped the balance to Ukraine having more tanks on the battlefield than Russia. The Oryx open source intelligence source documents that Russia has lost 8,471 vehicles and equipment, of which:
- 5,288 destroyed
- 209 damaged
- 304 abandoned
- 2,670 captured
Looking specifically at tanks, Russia has lost 1,577, with 922 destroyed, 69 damaged, 59 abandoned and 527 captured. Assuming the captured and abandoned are now in use by Ukraine, they have gained around 600 tanks. In comparison, Ukraine has lost only around 160 tanks. The balance is tipping in Ukraine's favor as Russia loses tanks while Ukraine gains them.
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Intercepted Russian Calls
Jonathan shares two intercepted calls that provide insight into the thoughts and low morale of Russian soldiers:
- A Russian soldier's wife wants to write an appeal to Putin about the lack of proper equipment and payments. The soldier replies there is no point as "Putin doesn't give a flying f*". He says complaints result in people being taken away to unknown locations. This shows the soldiers' distaste for leadership and the belief that Putin does not care about them.
- A Russian soldier describes how his commanders are afraid to leave the trenches, how a captured Russian tank is now firing back at them, and that 20 deserters were caught. He uses disparaging language to refer to the officers "pissing in bottles" rather than going outside. The soldiers clearly have contempt for the command hierarchy. The high number of deserters is also telling of the low morale and difficult conditions.
Importance of Support Vehicles
While main battle tanks often get the headlines, support vehicles like the German bridge-laying vehicle now in Ukraine are also vital. Without these, tanks cannot cross rivers or be recovered. Although not flashy, the support vehicles provided by countries like Germany are essential to the war effort.
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UK Mastiff Hit By Tank
A photo shows a UK-provided Mastiff vehicle that was hit by a tank round. The damage is extensive, demonstrating the power of tank ammunition. Jonathan notes these are decent vehicles but the "moral of the story is don't get hit by a tank round."
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France Trains Ukrainians on Caesar Artillery
France has trained 40 Ukrainians on the Caesar self-propelled howitzer. With 18 Caesars provided, some of those trained are likely now instructors themselves. If France provides more Caesars, Ukraine will not need French trainers as they now have their own. The Ukrainians trained on these systems have been using them in combat for months and will have become experts, knowing the ins-and-outs, problems, workarounds and how to use them most effectively - more so than those who initially trained them. This creates a self-sustaining model where Ukrainians can train each other and even help train forces from other nations on the equipment they are now combat-hardened on. NATO and Western forces have stated they will start being trained by Ukrainians on aspects like urban warfare, as the Ukrainians have unique expertise from this conflict that will be valuable to share with allies.
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The Battle for Bakhmut
Jonathan analyzes the Russian strategy and challenges in attempting to take Bakhmut. The city sits in a depression surrounded by high ground. Russia is trying to encircle Bakhmut to cut off the three main paved roads that serve as Ukrainian supply lines. In the north, Russia has struggled to take the village of Pidhorodne. If they could reach the crossroads at Krasna Hora it would cut off one of the roads, but this is well-defended. Bypassing Pidhorodne is possible but would leave Russia's flanks exposed. In the south, Russian forces must capture Klishchiivka and the high ground behind it. The Ukrainians have heavily fortified this area with trenches and defenses. Taking the town and then advancing uphill would be costly. If they could reach Ivanivske, it would cut the road to Kostyantynivka. Recently, Russia has only managed to advance a few kilometers on this front in two months' time. The Ukrainians are strategically trading space, fighting hard for key points but ceding less critical territory. Urban combat in Bakhmut itself would be extremely difficult for Russia. In the big picture, Russia may be seeking to take Bakhmut to use it as a staging point to push further into Donetsk Oblast, but this would be a challenge. The battle could drag on for months with little progress. Ukraine is well aware of the strategic situation and is smartly defending to make any Russian gains as painful as possible.
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Chinese Incursion into Taiwan Air Defense Zone
In an incident unrelated to Ukraine, Taiwan reported that 71 Chinese aircraft, including fighters and drones, entered its air defense identification zone in a 24-hour period - the largest incursion to date. There is concern China may see the West's focus on Ukraine as an opportunity to take aggressive action against Taiwan. However, the strong Western response to Russia's invasion could also deter China, as it shows the West will heavily support its allies. This situation bears watching in the coming weeks and has significant geopolitical implications.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan signs off by thanking viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He encourages people to like, subscribe, share and support his work through buying his books or donating. He notes he will "speak to you tomorrow" but jokes he won't actually see viewers tomorrow as he's "not some kind of weird stalker."
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