Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Massive Strike on Dzhankoy
Table of Contents 📖
"I just want to shove down J.D. Vance and Marjorie Taylor Greene's, I don't know, throats in front of their eyes and say, look, like when you're slagging off the Ukrainians, these Ukro-Nazis, is this them? Is this them? When you see children having their legs blown off, is that a Ukro-Nazi? No, it's not. How disgusting it is that you are regurgitating Russian propaganda."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:06⏩
Jonathan is feeling Canadian today! He thanks Michael for sending him a gift and reminisces about his love of music, recalling the last Canadian song he listened to - Godspeed You Black Emperor "East Hastings" from the "Under the Banner of Heaven" soundtrack which he highly recommends.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report - Russian Losses (16th April 2024)
🎦 01:06-02:55⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily report from the Ukrainian General Staff on estimated Russian losses for the previous day (16th April 2024) - the figures are lower than recent days:
- 710 Personnel
- 4 Tanks
- 18 Armoured Personnel Vehicles
- 15 Artillery Systems
- 1 Anti-Aircraft Warfare system
- 24 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks
- 2 Pieces of Special Equipment
Jonathan believes that the lower figures may be indicative of the Russians running out of steam and having less to throw at key targets - Bakhmut, Avdiivka and up to Krasnohorivka. Jonathan suspects that the Russians are holding back in preparation for a larger offensive later in the Spring or Summer, but believes they would need to conduct a large mobilisation. He notes that the Russians are trying to mobilise "by stealth". Jonathan believes that both sides are on their knees.
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Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses - analysis of open source intelligence
🎦 02:55-06:07⏩
Jonathan cites an estimate from Andrew Perpetua suggesting a 5:1 or 6:1 loss ratio in favour of Ukraine, based on analysis of open source intelligence. Ukrainian losses include a "Crab" self-propelled Howitzer, a "Caesar" self-propelled Howitzer (damaged - footage not yet seen), and another self-propelled gun taken out by a Krasnopol. Jonathan notes that the Krasnopol laser guided munition is being used more frequently than previously. The Ukrainians are also suffering losses from Lancet loitering munitions. Russian losses are much higher, with significant losses of tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles. Jonathan highlights the increasing effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drone use, and that many vehicles are being damaged rather than destroyed.
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Analysis of Russian Personnel Losses - BBC/Mediazona
🎦 06:07-19:11⏩
Jonathan analyses statistics from the BBC and Mediazona on confirmed Russian military personnel losses, which are estimated to be at least 50,000, although the true number is likely to be much higher. He notes that the criteria used by the BBC and Mediazona to verify individual Russian losses are very strict - social media posts, funeral announcements and death certificates are meticulously studied, and only those directly attributable to the war are included. The 50,000 figure does not include losses from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (LPR/DPR) or Wagner Group mercenaries, which Jonathan believes are likely to be significant. Ukraine rarely releases figures on its own losses, but has recently claimed 31,000. Jonathan believes that the true number is likely to be much higher, perhaps 75-100,000. He estimates the true number of Russian losses (killed and wounded) could be 300-500,000. Jonathan refers to recent comments from US General Cavoli, Commander of US European Command and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, who estimated Russian losses of 315,000. Jonathan notes that high Russian losses are due in part to poor medical care and lack of evacuation of wounded soldiers from the battlefield. Analysis of Russian military graves since the start of the war also supports these estimates. Jonathan analyses data relating to Wagner Group losses (estimated by Yevgeny Prigozhin before his death to be 22,000) and highlights the very high casualty rates among Russian convicts recruited to fight in Ukraine. He notes that the average life expectancy of Wagner convict recruits was three months, but this has fallen to two months for those recruited directly by the Russian Ministry of Defence, suggesting that they are receiving less training.
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Destruction of Russian Mi-8 Helicopter at Kriyaz Air Base, Samara, Russia
🎦 19:11-20:26⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian military has claimed responsibility for the destruction of a Russian Mi-8 transport helicopter at Kriyaz Air Base, Samara, Russia. He suggests that the attack was probably carried out by partisans.
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Analysis of Russian "Mad Max" Tank
🎦 20:26-21:53⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Russian tank that has been heavily modified with what appears to be a makeshift shelter and electronic warfare (EW) equipment. The tank was featured in a video yesterday but Jonathan didn't comment on it at the time. He speculates on the reasons for the modifications, noting that although it appears to be a sub-optimal use of a tank, there might be a rationale for it. Open source intelligence expert Rob Lee has identified the tank as belonging to the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade. He notes that the tank has been fitted with a mine roller and has survived a D30 strike and driving over multiple mines, suggesting there is some merit to the design. Jonathan concedes that although it is a fairly effective modification, it's probably indicative of equipment shortages.
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Russian Missile Strikes on Chernihiv and other Ukrainian Cities
🎦 21:53-26:26⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces have launched missiles attacks against the Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih and Odesa. At the time of recording, eleven people have been confirmed dead in Chernihiv, with twenty-two injured and three missing. Civilian infrastructure, including a hotel, has been targeted. Jonathan is angry about the attacks, describing them as "genocide" and criticising those in the West, such as US politicians J.D. Vance and Marjorie Taylor Green, who downplay Russian atrocities and repeat Russian propaganda. He cites comments from former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who believes that the West should "hit back twice as hard" in response to Russian and Iranian aggression.
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Ukrainian Missile Strike on Dzhankoy, Crimea
🎦 26:26-35:51⏩
In contrast to the Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian strike on the strategically important target of Dzhankoi in northern Crimea. Dzhankoi is a key military logistics, rail and road hub, and home to an airbase. Jonathan states that this strike is being described by some as the most successful attack of the entire war. Although it has been the target of previous attacks, the Ukrainians have previously lacked the necessary weaponry to strike at Dzhankoi. There is speculation that the Ukrainians used ATACMS ballistic missiles in the attack, and possibly GLSDB or SCALP missiles. The attack has caused significant damage, estimated at $100-$300 million. Jonathan notes that an S-400 air defence system, worth $500 million, was destroyed in the attack. He analyses the significance of the attack, suggesting that the Ukrainians have probably been waiting for the optimal time to strike when they had the right equipment and munitions available, rather than this being an intelligence failure on the part of the Russians. He speculates that the Ukrainians may have been supplied with ATACMS missiles from existing US stockpiles, and that the delay in providing these weapons is due to the Americans building up their own stocks of newer missiles. Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of open source intelligence in the war, and that the locations of Russian equipment can often be identified from commercially available satellite imagery.
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Update on Flooding in Russia
🎦 35:51-36:50⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the flooding in Russia that he was talking about in yesterday's video, which has affected the cities of Tomsk and Orenburg, following the destruction of a dam in Kazakhstan. He notes that a section of the Trans-Siberian Railway is underwater.
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Fire at Crimean Zoo
🎦 36:50-37:13⏩
Jonathan reports that more than 200 animals have died in a fire at a zoo in occupied Crimea.
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Russia to Provide Iran with Advanced Weaponry
🎦 37:13-41:06⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is to provide Iran with advanced weaponry, including Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defence systems. He notes that this development will create cognitive dissonance in the minds of those in US politics who are both anti-Ukraine and anti-Iran, as it demonstrates that Russia is allied with and actively supporting Iran against Israel. The provision of these weapons systems, particularly the S-400, could also pose a direct threat to US interests in the region. Jonathan notes that the transfer of Russian weapons technology could enhance Iranian military capability.
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Miscellaneous Ukraine Updates
🎦 41:06-47:08⏩
Jonathan shares a number of miscellaneous Ukraine updates:
- Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roscosmos, has claimed that Ukraine is now using FPV drone swarms fitted with night vision equipment
- Ukrainian soldiers are using Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) salvaged from destroyed Russian vehicles to create Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
- 161 Ukrainian children believed to have been abducted to Russia have been found in Germany
- Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been pictured inspecting military equipment at a Russian arms exhibition
- Jonathan provides an update on the health of General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, who disappeared for several months after being injured in a Ukrainian missile strike. He was seen in public recently but appeared to be in poor health. Jonathan believes that he may have suffered a heart attack or other medical event that required a lengthy period of hospitalisation.
Wrap Up
🎦 47:08-47:10⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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