Ukraine War Update EXTRA AUDIO FIXED: Aircraft - Yes or No, ATACMS - Why Not?
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"Yes, Western aircraft will be needed by the Ukrainian Air Force. Yes, there would be a significant improvement on their current jets. Yes, we should get them them. But we shouldn't be under illusions as to what they will accomplish and what they're for. They will not establish battlefield dominance over the Russian army in Ukraine. That is not possible with a handful of Western jets."
16/02/2023
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Jonathan ponders his role in providing curated information and commentary on the Ukraine conflict. He sees himself as an aggregator, distilling information from disparate sources and providing his own insights. He hopes viewers find this valuable. Support for the channel helps him continue this work.
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Providing fighter jets to Ukraine
- UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said providing fighter jets would require sending ~200 RAF personnel, highlighting the challenges
- In a conversation between Ward Carroll and Justin Bronk from RUSI, Bronk explains:
- 90% of jets are unsuitable for Ukraine's needs
- Western jets are designed for NATO combined arms ops, not Soviet-style warfare
- Contested airspace and strong Russian air defences make using jets very difficult
- Extensive support (electronic warfare, SEAD, etc.) would be needed, which Ukraine lacks
- Gripen is probably the most suitable jet but still problematic
- Bronk argues resources are better spent on other priorities like tanks, IFVs, training
Why the West isn't providing ATACMS missiles
- ATACMS have 300km range vs 84km for GMLRS rockets fired by HIMARS
- But ATACMS cost $1M each and a pod only carries 1 vs 6 GMLRS (~$170k each)
- Russian air defences have struggled to intercept GMLRS but would likely be more effective against larger, slower ATACMS
- So currently, GMLRS provide better value, hitting more targets for similar cost
- Argument that ATACMS should be provided once Russia's air defences are degraded more
Outlook for the war
- Ben Barry from IISS sees Ukraine wanting 10 armoured brigades with modern Western tanks/IFVs for planned counteroffensives, but so far only ~25% of this has been pledged
- Meanwhile, Putin playing long game, willing to accept heavy losses, but unclear if Russian forces can achieve stated goals
- Both sides have reasons to attack in spring, but will need strong defences too
- Likely another bloody year ahead with back-and-forth offensives
- Western aid is critical but US polling shows declining support (60% to 48%) as domestic issues take priority
Russian offensive in the Donbas
- Western officials see new Russian offensive as more aspirational than realistic
- Russian forces still lack ability to conduct effective combined arms ops to take and hold territory
- Offensive may be premature due to political pressure, without adequate preparation
- Scepticism on Ukrainian side too - enough Russian forces to maybe take 1-2 small cities but underwhelming overall
- US sees no evidence of Russia massing aircraft for large-scale attacks
Early Russian predictions vs reality
At the war's start, many Russians predicted a quick victory, e.g.:
- Ukrainian air defences/airforce/navy rapidly destroyed
- War over in 3-15 days
However, a year later:
- Much of Ukraine's air defences remain intact
- Airspace still contested
- War is ongoing with no clear end in sight
Wrap up
Jonathan appreciates viewers' support and all the ways people help the channel. He will continue providing content to the best of his abilities.
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