Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - US Intel/Aid Bans, Europe Steps Up
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Table of Contents 📖
"It's just absolute insanity going on in the world where we're living in the upside down world and the US appears to have just gone completely rogue."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and introduces this Ukraine War News Update, part two for 6th March 2025, following a breaking news update.
- He mentions there is a lot to discuss regarding military aid and anticipates needing to do a live stream after this video due to the volume of news.
- Jonathan expresses disbelief and concern about the current global situation, describing it as "insane" and an "upside down world" where the US appears to be acting "completely rogue".
Zaluzhny's Criticism of US Foreign Policy
🎦 00:29-01:44⏩
- Jonathan highlights comments from Valerii Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK and former commander-in-chief, regarding the US's current stance.
- Zaluzhny suggests that Ukraine is being forced to recognise that the US has aligned itself with Russia.
- Quoting Jane Keefe, Jonathan notes the sentiment that Ukraine is "slowly forced to admit that the US has joined Russia".
- He references Louisa Brown's report of Zaluzhny's speech at Chatham House where Zaluzhny stated:
- "The US is destroying the world order."
- Ukraine should maintain its agency and relationships with other global players.
- Ukraine must insist on its own interests and territorial integrity, avoiding being a "bargaining chip".
- The US is moving closer to Russia and "refuses to recognise Russia as an aggressor" and disregards its international reputation.
- Zaluzhny implies that reliance on a single nation for military development is unsustainable and potentially hints at countries seeking alternatives to US military hardware.
European Leaders Meeting in Brussels with Zelensky
🎦 01:44-03:10⏩
- Jonathan transitions to military aid news, noting that today is a "massive day" with a significant meeting in Brussels.
- European leaders are meeting with President Zelensky to discuss aid and support for Ukraine.
- Jonathan expects numerous updates and "nuggets" to emerge from this meeting throughout the day.
EU and European Investment Bank Agreement for Ukraine
🎦 03:10-03:47⏩
- The European Commission and the European Investment Bank have signed a separate agreement providing €1.95 billion to Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility.
- These funds are earmarked for critical sectors, particularly Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
- Jonathan points out that USAID's withdrawal globally has made Ukraine's energy infrastructure more vulnerable and reconstruction efforts more challenging, highlighting the previous vital role of US support.
Hungary Blocking New EU Military Aid Package
🎦 03:47-04:30⏩
- The EU's development of a new €20 billion military aid package for Ukraine is being stalled due to Hungary's obstruction, as reported by Politico.
- This separate aid package is facing issues due to Hungary's stance.
- Kaja Kallas has commented that Hungary's obstruction of EU aid decisions for Ukraine is becoming increasingly problematic for the bloc.
Majority Coalition Initiative to Bypass Hungarian Veto
🎦 04:30-05:07⏩
- Due to Hungary's repeated obstruction, a new initiative is proposed to form a majority coalition within the EU.
- This aims to prevent a single country from blocking decisions, addressing the issue of unanimity voting.
- Jonathan suggests that countries like Hungary, which consistently oppose majority EU decisions, should consider leaving the bloc instead of hindering collective action.
Super Majority Voting for EU Aid Decisions
🎦 05:07-05:28⏩
- Jonathan proposes considering a "super majority" system, such as a three-quarters majority, for crucial decisions like European aid, rather than simple majority or unanimity.
- This would allow the majority to proceed with aid while accommodating dissenting voices like Slovakia and Hungary, who could then "do their own thing" separately.
MEPs Urge Belgium to Seize Frozen Russian Assets
🎦 05:28-05:59⏩
- 59 MEPs and three Ukrainian legislators have signed an open letter to King Philippe of Belgium, urging him to support the transfer of €250 billion in frozen Russian assets directly to Ukraine.
- This is expected to be a significant topic at the Brussels meeting and ongoing discussions.
- King Philippe's role is highlighted due to Euroclear being based in Belgium, suggesting he may have the authority to potentially override obstacles, possibly even from the US.
Emergency Defence Summit in Brussels and Banner of Support
🎦 05:59-06:35⏩
- An emergency defence summit has commenced in Brussels, focusing on military assistance to Kyiv.
- As a show of solidarity, activists have displayed a large 500 square metre banner.
- The banner reads "Defend Ukraine, defend Europe, seize Russia's billions", advocating for the utilisation of frozen Russian assets and visually incorporating elements of both the European and Ukrainian flags.
German Aid Package and Defence Spending Boost
🎦 06:35-07:59⏩
- Germany is actively involved, with incoming Chancellor Merz aiming to quickly pass a $3.2 billion German aid package for Ukraine.
- Merz wants this defence aid package, worth approximately €3 billion, approved by the current parliament before the new coalition takes over.
- The new German coalition has also agreed to a "massive defence boost" to rebuild the German armed forces, which have suffered from years of neglect and poor administration.
- Analyst Tendai reports that Germany will significantly increase defence and infrastructure spending, suspending the Schuldenbremse (debt brake) for defence expenditure.
- Defence spending could reach 3-5% of GDP with no fixed limit or timeframe, and €500 billion is allocated for infrastructure over 10 years.
- Merz has pledged "whatever it takes" for this defence and infrastructure investment.
Dutch Government Reserves Funds for Continued Ukraine Support
🎦 07:59-09:38⏩
- The Dutch government will reserve €3.5 billion (approximately $3.8 billion) to continue supporting Ukraine in 2026.
- Prime Minister Dick Schoof announced these funds will ensure consistent Dutch support next year and could be used in 2025 if needed.
- Jonathan notes this is significant as the Dutch coalition includes the PVV, led by Geert Wilders, who is known to be less supportive of Ukraine and more pro-Russia.
- He praises Prime Minister Schoof, highlighting his intelligence background, for this commitment.
Norwegian Prime Minister Announces Increased Defence Assistance to Ukraine
🎦 09:38-10:25⏩
- The Prime Minister of Norway has announced plans to "significantly increase spending on defence assistance to Ukraine" in parliament.
- Jonathan compares Norway's potential contribution to that of the US and other nations, considering GDP and population size.
- He questions whether this increase will be a substantial amount, like €500 million, or a much larger sum, such as €10 billion.
Per Capita Contributions to Ukraine - Denmark, Norway and US Comparison
🎦 10:25-11:07⏩
- Jonathan presents data on top contributors to Ukraine per person:
- Denmark: €1,850
- Norway: €1,520
- Netherlands: €744
- Finland: €700
- Sweden: €610
- USA: €196
- He highlights the US is significantly lower in per capita contribution compared to several European nations.
Norway's Financial Capacity to Significantly Aid Ukraine
🎦 11:07-12:46⏩
- Jonathan uses an analogy about neighbours helping someone whose house burnt down to illustrate Norway's position. He compares Norway to "Jimmy who's just won the lottery" due to its vast Sovereign Wealth Fund.
- Norway, while not in the EU, is in Europe, close to Russia, and recognises the Russian threat.
- Norway has greatly benefited financially from the energy crisis caused by the war, with profits going into its Sovereign Wealth Fund.
- Unlike the UK, which did not establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund and allowed private companies to exploit North Sea oil and gas, Norway has directed its natural resource wealth to benefit the state.
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund and Potential for Increased Aid
🎦 12:46-15:22⏩
- Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund has grown significantly due to increased oil and gas revenues from the energy crisis, now holding approximately 1.7 trillion.
- This vast wealth puts Norway in a unique position to provide substantially more aid to Ukraine than other European nations.
- Jonathan questions whether it is fair to expect Norway to contribute more, suggesting it could be justified by the financial gains it has made from the energy crisis.
- He speculates on what "significantly increase" in aid from Norway might mean, considering its small population of 5.5 million and already being the second-highest per capita aid provider.
Irish Government Approves Additional Aid and French Consideration of Seizing Russian Assets
🎦 15:22-16:31⏩
- The Irish government has approved €100 million in additional aid to Ukraine for non-lethal military equipment.
- Ireland is also considering changes to its neutral status in light of the situation.
- France is reportedly considering seizing frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, going beyond the 59 MEPs' call, indicating broader French government interest.
- French government members have discussed asset seizure with German counterparts, potentially to use these assets to guarantee loans for Ukraine.
- This French consideration appears separate from the existing frozen Russian assets, particularly those in Euroclear, and could involve seizing properties like houses and yachts.
French Commitment to Compensate for Suspended US Military Aid and Intelligence
🎦 16:31-17:22⏩
- The French Prime Minister has stated France intends to raise "all possible funds" to offset the suspension of American military aid to Ukraine.
- He delivered a significant speech emphasizing global threats and France's important role, possibly as a nuclear umbrella for Europe.
- France is also stepping up to fill the intelligence gap resulting from the US ceasing vital intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
- While the UK is reportedly still providing some intelligence, it may be restricted from sharing US-sourced intelligence due to Five Eyes agreements and US directives.
- France, with its more independent intelligence capabilities, can offer a sovereign alternative.
French Sovereign Defence Industry and European Alternatives
🎦 17:22-18:05⏩
- France's focus on a sovereign defence military-industrial complex, independent from US components, is now proving beneficial for Europe.
- Thomas Steiner suggests France's policy of avoiding US defence components is becoming Europe's "salvation".
- French-supplied Ukraine is not dependent on Starlink, and Europe can provide alternative telecommunications to Ukraine.
Denmark's Preference for European Air Defence Systems
🎦 18:05-19:22⏩
- EURASAM (MBDA and Thales) Sante NG long-range surface-to-air defence system is reportedly Denmark's preferred solution for acquisition.
- For short-range air defence, Denmark is favouring NASAMS.
- This is significant as Denmark, a European nation, is choosing European defence solutions instead of US systems like Patriot.
- While NASAMS is co-produced by Norway and the US, the trend indicates a shift towards European defence procurement.
- This choice could be a "kick in the shins" to the US military-industrial complex and may prompt heavy lobbying from US defence companies.
Denmark Sends US Harpoon Missiles to Ukraine
🎦 19:22-20:40⏩
- Denmark has sent its US-made Harpoon missiles, including Norwegian variants, to Ukraine.
- This action further underscores a potential shift away from reliance on US military equipment, representing another "kick in the shins" for the American military-industrial complex.
Czechia Increases Defence Budget and Munition Production
🎦 20:40-21:24⏩
- Czechia is significantly increasing its defence budget, by 0.2% of GDP annually until 2030, aiming to reach 3% of GDP by 2030.
- In 2026, the Czech defence budget is projected to be 2.2% of GDP, progressively increasing each year.
- This commitment exceeds NATO's 2% target and sets a positive example for European defence spending.
Czechia Expands Munitions Production and Leopard Tank Turret Manufacturing
🎦 21:24-22:19⏩
- Czech company STV Group is expanding its large-calibre munition production, opening a new line in two weeks to double capacity to 200,000 artillery shells per year.
- A third production line will be operational by the end of the year, increasing capacity to 300,000 shells annually.
- Czech defence industry will also produce turrets for Leopard 2 main battle tanks, with hull production also under discussion.
- This demonstrates Europe's efforts to step up defence production to compensate for reduced US support to Ukraine.
Leopard Tank and Panzerhaubitze Repair Facilities in Ukraine
🎦 22:19-23:02⏩
- Repair facilities for German Leopard tanks and Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers will be established in Ukraine.
- While some Leopard tank repairs already occur in Ukraine, Panzerhaubitzes previously had to be sent to Germany or Lithuania for repair, causing significant delays.
- Establishing local repair facilities will improve efficiency and reduce downtime for these crucial weapon systems.
Drones vs. Artillery and Cost Effectiveness
🎦 23:02-24:01⏩
- Jonathan speculates on the current fire rates of artillery, suggesting drones may have largely replaced howitzer usage.
- This shift could be due to shell availability and drone affordability.
- He highlights the cost-effectiveness of drones, noting that a $300 drone can be a more efficient and potentially more accurate alternative to expensive artillery shells.
- Drones are presented as a cheaper and strategically advantageous option in many scenarios.
Lithuania Exits Convention on Cluster Munitions and Ukraine to Quadruple Drone Production
🎦 24:01-25:47⏩
- Lithuania is exiting the Convention on Cluster Munitions, possibly to procure and supply them to Ukraine.
- Lithuania, bordering Russia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, argues it needs all possible means for deterrence.
- Ukraine plans to quadruple its production of long-range kamikaze drones to "several thousand per month".
- Brigadier General Chirigol mentioned Ukraine currently produces "several hundred" such drones monthly, aiming to exceed 2,000 soon.
- Jonathan emphasizes the potential impact of producing 2,000 drones per month, enabling massive strikes against Russian infrastructure.
New Ukrainian Homegrown Nord Drone Approved
🎦 25:47-26:27⏩
- A new Ukrainian homegrown drone, the "Nord" UAV, has been approved for use by Ukraine's Ministry of Defence.
- The Nord drone is described as compact, maneuverable, and capable of reaching 150 km/h.
- It is reported to have advanced anti-electronic warfare capabilities, representing positive news for Ukrainian drone development.
Saab CEO Pushes for Gripen Jets for Ukraine
🎦 26:27-27:52⏩
- The Saab CEO is advocating for the provision of Swedish Gripen jets to Ukraine "sooner rather than later".
- Jonathan discusses the debate around Gripen jets compared to more advanced fighters like the F-35.
- While F-35s are superior sixth-generation fighters, Gripens are fifth-generation but offer advantages like lower cost, ease of maintenance, and ability to operate from roads.
- Gripen jets are presented as a potentially cost-effective and practical option for Ukraine.
Gripen vs F-35 and Cost-Benefit Analysis
🎦 27:52-28:38⏩
- Jonathan draws an analogy between drones and artillery rounds to compare Gripen and F-35 jets, highlighting the concept of "horses for courses".
- He emphasizes that the best choice depends on the specific mission and cost-benefit considerations.
- While F-35s are more capable, Gripens might be more suitable and affordable for certain tasks.
- He notes that Gripen now uses a US engine and mentions the broader discussion about increasing European defence manufacturing for national security.
- Jonathan raises concerns about potential political shifts in Europe, mentioning AFD in Germany and Marine Le Pen in France, which could impact European defence cooperation.
Swedish Gripen Jets for Ukraine and Potential Delay
🎦 28:38-29:03⏩
- The Saab CEO is urging for the prompt delivery of Swedish Gripen jets to Ukraine, suggesting Ukraine is transitioning to Western jets and Gripen could be the next logical step.
- The CEO is optimistic that Sweden's hesitation might be due to awaiting F-16 implementation.
- Jonathan expresses disappointment at the hint that Gripen provision might not be happening, advocating for immediate and comprehensive military aid to Ukraine.
Canada and Turkey Consider Joining Ukraine Peacekeeping Mission
🎦 29:03-29:44⏩
- Canada may be willing to join a Ukraine peacekeeping mission with US backing, according to Defence Minister Bill Blair.
- Canada's participation is contingent on US security guarantees, potentially referring to air defence support.
- Turkey is also reportedly considering sending soldiers to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
- Jonathan highlights Turkey's potential significant role in such a mission.
US Aid to Israel vs. Ukraine and Trump's Administration Actions
🎦 29:44-30:24⏩
- Jonathan contrasts the US approach to aid for Israel and Ukraine, noting that under Trump, $12 billion has been given to Israel and $0 to Ukraine.
- He questions the rationale of limiting aid to Ukraine due to it being perceived as a "forever war" while consistently supporting Israel despite its long-standing conflict.
- This comparison sets the stage for discussing the Trump administration's policies towards Ukraine.
Trump Administration Plans to Revoke Legal Status for 240,000 Ukrainian Refugees
🎦 30:24-30:54⏩
- The Trump administration plans to revoke legal status for 240,000 Ukrainians who fled to the US.
- This action appears to be part of a broader rollback of migration regulations, affecting Venezuelans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans as well.
- These changes could lead to the deportation of 240,000 Ukrainians starting in April.
Contradiction in Trump's Rhetoric and Deportation Policy
🎦 30:54-32:02⏩
- Jonathan highlights a contradiction: Trump frequently describes Ukraine as "rubble" and its cities as "knocked down," yet is deporting 240,000 civilians back to this supposedly devastated country.
- He questions the responsibility of sending civilians back to a war zone described as "rubble," suggesting a lack of care or coherence in Trump's policies.
US Punitive Approach to Ukraine and Trump's "Peace" Rhetoric
🎦 32:02-33:11⏩
- Jonathan interprets the deportation plan as part of a wider "punitive approach" towards Ukraine by the US.
- He critiques Trump's "peace" rhetoric as disingenuous, contrasting it with actions like deporting civilians and cutting intelligence sharing, which worsen Ukraine's situation.
- He satirically mimics Trump's statements about wanting peace and not wanting people to die, juxtaposing them with policies that increase risks for Ukrainians.
Potential Positive Consequence of Deportation for Ukraine
🎦 33:11-33:56⏩
- Jonathan identifies a "silver lining" to the deportation: the return of 240,000 people, mostly women and children, could boost Ukraine's GDP and tax base.
- If men are among those deported, they could potentially join the armed services.
- However, he emphasizes that this potential benefit does not justify the lack of "joined up thinking" in Trump's policies.
US Stopping Intelligence Sharing and Aid to Ukraine
🎦 33:56-34:24⏩
- Jonathan reiterates the Trump administration's actions: stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine, preventing the UK from sharing US intelligence, and halting aid to Ukraine.
- Anton Kherashchenko expresses appreciation for the US but seeks clarification, pointing out the contradiction in US policy.
Marco Rubio's Proxy War Statement and Contradiction
🎦 34:24-36:02⏩
- Jonathan highlights Marco Rubio's statement that the US and Russia are waging a "proxy war" in Ukraine.
- He questions the logic of demanding Ukraine repay $350 billion for aid if it's a proxy war fought in US interests.
- He criticizes Rubio's "virtue signalling" and challenges the claim that there's no plan to end the war, pointing out Ukraine's proposed victory plan and Trump's unfulfilled promise to solve the war quickly.
Doris Analogy - US Demanding Repayment for Proxy War Support
🎦 36:02-38:27⏩
- Jonathan uses a "Doris" analogy to illustrate the absurdity of the US demanding repayment for aid in a proxy war.
- He depicts a scenario where he asks Doris to garden for him using his supplies, then demands she repay him for the supplies after she has done the work benefiting him.
- This analogy satirizes the US position, portraying it as unreasonable and "clinically insane".
Shashank Joshi's Analysis - US Crushing Ukraine's Capacity
🎦 38:27-39:15⏩
- Shashank Joshi argues that the US appears intent on "crushing Ukraine's capacity" to force Zelensky to submit to negotiations.
- This strategy is seen as detrimental, weakening US leverage against Russia and emboldening Russia to dictate terms, knowing Trump is likely to blame Ukraine.
- Cutting intelligence sharing is described as "unnecessary, punitive, and vindictive," seriously hampering Ukraine's military capabilities, including air defence.
US Condition for Lifting Restrictions - Ukraine-Russia Talks
🎦 39:15-40:03⏩
- The US condition for lifting restrictions on intelligence sharing and aid is for Ukraine to set a date for talks with Russia.
- Jonathan criticizes this approach for putting pressure solely on Ukraine and not Russia to negotiate.
- He argues this strategy is ineffective and benefits Russia, as Russia has no incentive to negotiate if the US continues to weaken Ukraine.
- Shashank Joshi labels this negotiating tactic as "inept".
Trump's Negotiating Skills Criticised and Doha Agreement Example
🎦 40:03-40:32⏩
- Jonathan challenges the perception of Trump as a "master negotiator," calling him a "shit negotiator" and "absolute dog poo".
- He cites the Doha agreement for Afghanistan as evidence of Trump's poor negotiating skills, which Biden inherited and struggled to manage.
CNN Report - US Curtailing Intelligence Sharing and Yaroslav Trofimov's Analysis
🎦 40:32-41:10⏩
- CNN reports the US has curtailed intelligence sharing with Ukraine, affecting both offensive and defensive operations, including air defence.
- This includes reducing ISR flights.
- Yaroslav Trofimov interprets this as the Trump administration prioritizing avoiding Ukrainian civilian deaths over Russian soldier deaths, to force peace talks.
- He concludes the White House prefers Ukrainian civilians to die rather than Russian soldiers to achieve a forced peace.
Michael Weiss's Analysis - US Punishment and Mineral Deal
🎦 41:10-41:27⏩
- Michael Weiss suggests cutting military aid and intelligence is aimed at forcing Zelensky to "bend the knee," but even this is insufficient.
- The US is now seeking more from the mineral deal with Ukraine, indicating further demands beyond just forcing negotiations.
- Weiss describes the US approach as "punishment and abasement for Ukraine" combined with "unearned gifts for Russia".
Revised Mineral Deal Demands and George Barros's Assessment
🎦 41:27-42:25⏩
- After initially agreeing to a mineral deal with Zelensky during his White House visit, the US reportedly increased demands, wanting a "bigger and better" deal.
- George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) criticizes cutting intelligence sharing as a "terrible decision" that will enhance Russian forces' operational protection.
- Barros argues this move will help Russia regain lost momentum, as Russian battlefield gains had been decreasing since late 2024.
- Jonathan concludes the US is "purposefully resurrecting the corpse of Russia," calling it "despicable".
Canada's Foreign Minister - US Threats to Canadian Independence
🎦 42:25-43:17⏩
- Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told BBC Newsnight that the US has made "not joke threats" to Canadian independence.
- These threats, from Trump officials, involve military cooperation and water resources.
- Military cooperation includes aerial protection of North America and the Arctic.
- Peter Navarro previously threatened Canada's expulsion from Five Eyes intelligence sharing.
- Shashank Joshi describes this US action as "really serious," noting threats to Five Eyes expulsion, border changes (Navarro), and military cooperation.
US as a National Security Threat to Canada and Intelligence Sharing Concerns
🎦 43:17-44:57⏩
- Joshi states the US is currently a "major national security threat to Canada".
- Spy agencies globally, including Five Eyes, are considering limiting information sharing with the US due to its conciliatory approach to Russia.
- This includes Five Eyes members (UK, New Zealand, Australia, Canada), Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
- Israel is concerned about information reaching Russia, which supports Iran.
- Allies fear the US may reveal sensitive information to Moscow as Trump "pivots to Russia".
- Anton Gerashenko highlights concerns that US actions threaten to curb intelligence sharing and that discussions are underway on how to address this threat.
- Tendar emphasizes the potential damage to 80 years of trust and American dominance, calling it an "immeasurable" and "strategic blunder".
US Planes with Aid to Ukraine Turned Back Mid-Air
🎦 44:57-46:17⏩
- US planes carrying aid to Ukraine were reportedly turned back mid-air after the aid pause was implemented.
- Instead of allowing planes already en route to deliver aid before halting further shipments, the US ordered them to return.
- Jonathan sees this as intentionally hurtful to Ukraine, going "out of your way" to prevent Ukraine from receiving defensive resources.
- He describes US actions as "absolutely despicable" and "morally bankrupt," calling Trump "an evil man" and his facilitators equally culpable.
Trump's Ideological Influences and Consistency on Pro-Russia Stance
🎦 46:17-47:36⏩
- Jonathan suggests that while Trump is "an evil man," his policies are also influenced by ideologues around him, like Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, Stephen Miller, and Steve Bannon.
- He believes Trump himself is not deeply ideological and could have been persuaded to support Ukraine if advisors framed it as beneficial for the US, potentially leading to a Nobel Peace Prize.
- However, Jonathan acknowledges a consistency in Trump's long-standing anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia stance, as discussed on "The Rest Is Politics" podcast.
- This consistency suggests a deeper personal alignment with this approach beyond just advisor influence.
Trump Administration Decision to Cut Ukraine Military Support Before Zelensky Meeting
🎦 47:36-48:46⏩
- Ilya Ilyarionov, a Russian defector, claims the Trump administration decided to cut off all military support to Ukraine on February 25th, prior to Zelensky's White House visit on February 28th.
- This suggests Zelensky's visit was used as a "post-hoc rationalization" to blame Ukraine for a pre-determined US policy decision announced on March 4th.
- Reports from HIMARS operators indicate aid cuts may have started a month prior, further supporting the idea that the US decision was made before the White House meeting.
- Jonathan concludes it is "very clear what side they are on and it's not the Ukrainian side."
HIMARS and ATACMS Missile Capabilities and US Intel Dependency
🎦 48:46-50:16⏩
- Crews of HIMARS, M270, and MARS systems can program rockets in the field using onboard fire control, without US input for M30 and M31 munitions.
- M30 and M31 rockets have been used by Ukraine since June 2022 without needing US intelligence or authorization, and have no "kill switch" or geofencing.
- HIMARS themselves are not necessarily disabled.
- However, ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles are dependent on US intelligence for programming, explaining past US reluctance to supply them.
- Currently, ATACMS cannot be used, and Ukraine has likely exhausted its inventory.
- Smaller rockets and missiles for HIMARS may still be usable, but frontline reports vary.
Elon Musk's DOGE and Potential Shutdown of Munitions Plant
🎦 50:16-51:42⏩
- Colby Babar reports that "DOGE" (Department for Government Efficiency), led by Elon Musk, is attempting to shut down the Mechanister plant, a major weapons and munitions factory.
- Senator Lankford describes this as an "existential threat to US national security".
- Mechanister loads, assembles, and packs all of the Department of Defense's general-purpose aircraft bombs, including Mark 80 series and massive ordnance penetrators.
- Shutdown would devastate US allies like Israel who rely on Mark 80 series bombs.
- Senator Lankford highlights potential cuts of 1,000 civilian jobs at McAllister Army Ammunition Plant, crucial for ordinance work, which would effectively halt operations.
Historical Context and Concerns over Munitions Plant Shutdown
🎦 51:42-52:28⏩
- Jonathan references President Clinton's government reinvention efforts and federal worker reductions, but warns against reckless cuts in critical areas.
- Closing McAllister Army Ammunition Plant is likened to sacking nuclear missile maintenance and Ebola safety workers, potentially saving "five quid" but risking catastrophic consequences for national security.
- He emphasizes the insanity of jeopardizing national security by dismantling essential munitions production capabilities.
US Defence Department Dismantling Civilian Harm Reduction Efforts and Purge of JAGs
🎦 52:28-53:09⏩
- Dan LaMothe of the Washington Post reports the US Defence Department is dismantling efforts focused on reducing civilian harm in military operations.
- Jonathan notes recent purges of top officials in the DoD, Army, Navy, Air Force, and JAGs (Judge Advocate Generals - military lawyers).
- He questions the timing of purging JAGs, the military lawyers responsible for ensuring legal and normative compliance in military operations, suggesting a potential intention to disregard laws and rules of engagement.
Shift Towards Lethality Over Civilian Protection and Erosion of Values
🎦 53:09-54:47⏩
- The Trump administration is shifting to scale back civilian protections to prioritize "lethality," as hinted by Pete Hegseth's statement about moving away from "values".
- Hegseth's assertion that "values don't win wars, lethality wins wars" is highlighted as indicative of a dangerous shift in US military doctrine.
- Jonathan contrasts this with the previous US focus on precision weaponry to minimize collateral damage and civilian casualties.
- He uses the example of Russian Kinzhal missile inaccuracy and disregard for civilian casualties to illustrate the negative consequences of prioritizing lethality over civilian protection and values.
China Increases Defence Budget and US Cuts Defence Spending
🎦 54:47-58:03⏩
- China is increasing its defence budget by 7.2% this year, while the US is cutting its defence expenditure.
- Jonathan uses a satirical dialogue with "Pete" (Pete Hegseth) to highlight the absurdity of the US cutting defence spending while China increases theirs, especially given China is considered the main US enemy.
- He questions the logic of reducing US hard and soft power (USAID cuts) while China expands both, gaining an asymmetrical advantage.
- He implies that the US administration, led by Trump and figures like Hegseth, lacks basic understanding ("Scooby-Doo") of geopolitical strategy and consequences.
China's Defence Spending Details and Geopolitical Context
- China's announced defence budget is approximately £245 billion at the National People's Congress, though experts believe total spending could be 40% higher due to hidden items in other budgets.
- The 7.2% increase matches last year's, lower than previous double-digit increases, reflecting China's economic slowdown, though a 5% growth target is set for this year.
- Increased spending is driven by tensions with the US, Taiwan, Japan, and regional neighbours in the South China Sea.
- China's military modernization includes stealth fighters, aircraft carriers, and nuclear arsenal expansion.
- China attributes budget increases to exercises, maintenance, and improving service personnel lives, but its main objective is asserting control over Taiwan.
- Jonathan concludes the US is "basically hanging Taiwan out to dry" while preparing for war against China, a strategy he deems nonsensical.
Wrap up
- Jonathan concludes the video.
- He thanks viewers for watching and promises to speak to them soon.
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