Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It is not the first time they've attacked this field, and every single time it's going really bad. Like, almost 100% casualties every single time. It's been incredible to watch."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video on the Ukraine War Frontline Update for January 17, 2024.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Andrew Perpetua's (Oryx) Workload
🎦 00:09-03:13⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's recent post featuring losses from two days prior, highlighting the immense workload and fatigue involved in maintaining such comprehensive records. Jonathan acknowledges his own mistake in assuming those losses were from the previous day, attributing it to his familiarity with the ongoing conflict. The loss ratio between Russian and Ukrainian forces is noted as approximately 3:1, skewed towards drone losses. Jonathan mentions specific equipment losses for both sides, including a Bradley for Ukraine and engineering vehicles for Russia. He speculates that the increased loss of Russian engineering vehicles might indicate a greater effort to recover and repair damaged vehicles due to equipment shortages.
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Northeastern Frontline Overview
🎦 03:13-05:44⏩
Jonathan reviews the frontline map, thanking GL for their help with mapping. He notes minimal changes on the northeastern axis from Kupiansk to Svatove to Kreminna, acknowledging rumours of a Russian buildup for potential attacks in Kupiansk and other areas. Jonathan cites the ISW's report, mentioning a minor Russian advance in the Dvorichna area. He expresses uncertainty regarding evidence for rumoured large-scale offensives in the east and south.
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Russian Activity in the Serebiansky Forest
🎦 05:44-07:54⏩
Jonathan addresses Russian activity in the Serebiansky Forest, referencing geolocated footage suggesting potential advances near Dibrova. He emphasises the need for cautious interpretation of geolocated data, particularly in forested areas, as it doesn't necessarily equate to sustained territorial control. Jonathan notes discrepancies between mapping sources, particularly regarding Russian control in the area. He suggests that the ISW's use of the term "advance" might be misleading as it could simply reflect Russian movement rather than a successful territorial gain.
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Bilohorivka and the Serberk Front
🎦 07:54-09:40⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Bilohorivka, confirming minor Russian gains east of the settlement. He reiterates Andrew Perpetua's assessment that the gains are strategically insignificant and the area is prone to back-and-forth fighting due to challenging terrain and resupply difficulties. Jonathan points out the steep terrain and dense tree cover in the region, highlighting the problems faced by the Russians in holding captured areas. Despite continued activity on the Serberk front, no significant changes are reported.
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Bakhmut Frontline and ISW Assessment
🎦 09:40-12:34⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Bakhmut front, citing the ISW's report of a marginal Russian advance north of Klishchivka. He notes geolocated footage of a repelled Russian attack near Klishchivka, where the Ukrainian 5th Brigade successfully defended against a mechanized assault, potentially resulting in additional Russian equipment losses. He highlights the ongoing struggle for control of the high ground west of Klishchivka, crucial for dominating the trench network in the area. Jonathan expresses skepticism about Surat Maps' indication of Russian control over the entire trench network, believing it contradicts other evidence.
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Avdiivka and Russian Assault Analysis
🎦 12:34-19:55⏩
Jonathan focuses on Avdiivka, where intensified Russian assaults with armored support are reported. He questions the ISW's use of the term "Tveris direction", finding it too broad and uninformative. Minimal frontline changes are observed, with only a slight adjustment in the Shumy area. Jonathan highlights the heavy Russian aviation strikes on settlements in the region, particularly Avdiivka and Kurakhove. He examines a video depicting a Russian armored column advancing from Vesele towards Avdiivka. The column, consisting of at least six vehicles, suffers losses. Jonathan highlights the repeated nature of such attacks despite consistent failures, attributing it to Russian tactical naivety. He connects the footage to high Russian vehicle and personnel losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Civilian Situation in Avdiivka
🎦 19:55-21:26⏩
Jonathan expresses concern for the remaining civilians in Avdiivka, estimated at around 1,300, who reside in an area subjected to constant Russian bombardment. He criticises the targeting of civilians as a war crime, highlighting the dire situation they face while receiving basic supplies like bread.
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Southern Frontline Update
🎦 21:26-25:33⏩
Jonathan reports little to report on the southern frontline, with no significant changes observed. He notes a pro-Russian source, Rybar, claiming Russian advances near Vodyane and positional battles in the Orikhiv sector. The source alleges that Ukrainian counteroffensives have faltered, and Russian forces are improving their positions. Jonathan highlights the source's claim of Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne despite previous assertions of a halted counteroffensive. Decreased Ukrainian drone activity due to bad weather is mentioned, while artillery exchanges continue. The source also mentions increased Ukrainian activity near Pyatikhatky following reported Russian gains.
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Dnipro River and Krinky Bridgehead
🎦 25:33-28:56⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Dnipro River and Krinky, addressing claims of a potential Ukrainian bridgehead expansion. While Surat Maps suggests Russian pressure on the bridgehead, Andrew Perpetua remains unconvinced, acknowledging the area's contested nature. Jonathan highlights the ISW's report of ongoing positional fighting on the east bank, specifically mentioning Krinky and Pishchane. He notes the significance of fighting near Pishchane and Pidstepne, locations absent from reports for some time. He references satellite imagery indicating repeated Russian counterattacks near Krinky along the M14 highway, with fortifications being established in the area. Jonathan emphasises the impact of time on the conflict, as each passing month allows Russia to solidify defenses, potentially leading to a stalemate.
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Wrap Up
🎦 28:56-29:41⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers for watching and encouraging likes, subscriptions, and shares. He expresses gratitude for donations received through PayPal, Buy Me a Coffee, and Super Thanks, particularly highlighting contributions towards his upcoming trip to Ukraine. Jonathan specifically thanks John Larkin for a recent Super Thanks donation.
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