Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They lie and they make mistakes. They lie and they make mistakes. How much longer can this go on, guys? You have no brains and no conscience have you been processed"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration over having to re-record the video. He mentions an upcoming live stream at 5 o'clock with Brendan Kelly from Turchny about Russian strikes on civilians.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Update - Russian Losses (18/09/2024)
🎦 00:35-01:12⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses for the previous day. He notes an above-average loss of 14 tanks and a significant loss of 1,130 personnel.
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Andrew Perpetua's Lost & Damaged Equipment Update (17/09/2024)
🎦 01:12-03:41⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's data on lost and damaged military equipment over the past two days. He highlights the loss of two Ukrainian ANTPQ-50 light counterfire radars. He points out that Ukraine suffered proportionally higher equipment losses, with four vehicles captured, compared to minimal Russian losses.
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Andrew Perpetua's Lost & Damaged Equipment Update (18/09/2024)
🎦 03:41-05:20⏩
Jonathan examines the latest equipment losses from Andrew Perpetua's data. He observes that while Russia's overall equipment losses are higher, combat losses are roughly equal. He notes the loss of another Ukrainian ANTPQ-50 radar and several armoured vehicles.
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Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses in Kursk
🎦 05:20-09:42⏩
Jonathan addresses Russian claims about Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, specifically statements by Russian milblogger Sladkov. He questions the credibility of Russian data, emphasising its tendency to be exaggerated. He cites Sladkov's claim of a 1:30 equipment loss ratio in Russia's favour, deeming it unsubstantiated and unrealistic. Jonathan emphasises relying on verifiable data and evidence-based analysis, highlighting the importance of sources like Andrew Perpetua and Oryx in providing reliable information.
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Discussion on Ukrainian Casualty Figures
🎦 09:42-12:58⏩
Jonathan delves into the challenges of determining accurate casualty figures, citing conflicting reports from various sources. He mentions a Wall Street Journal report estimating 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, compared to 200,000 Russian soldiers killed and 500,000 wounded. He highlights the importance of considering the ratio of killed to wounded, suggesting that Ukraine's medical capabilities might be contributing to higher survival rates among their injured soldiers.
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Cemetery Mafias in Russia: Evidence of High Casualties
🎦 12:58-13:23⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Chris O'Wickey about cemetery mafias in Russia profiting from the increased death toll. He presents this as another data point suggesting significant Russian losses, as these criminal enterprises thrive on the influx of casualties.
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Trends in POW Footage and Ukrainian Offensive Actions
🎦 13:23-13:58⏩
Jonathan observes an increase in POW footage released by Ukrainians, particularly from the Kursk region. He interprets this trend as an indication of renewed Ukrainian offensive actions and some level of success in those operations.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 13:58-16:21⏩
Jonathan details the latest overnight drone and missile attacks. He praises Ukraine's 100% interception rate of 42 Shahed drones. He expresses concern over Russia's continued use of S-300/S-400 missiles due to their difficulty to intercept and reports of their impact on Kharkiv, resulting in casualties and significant destruction.
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Drone Attack on Rostov-on-Don
🎦 16:21-16:45⏩
Jonathan reports on a drone attack in Rostov-on-Don, where an explosion occurred near the Voroshilovsky Bridge. He notes witness accounts of a drone-like sound before the incident and the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations' confirmation of a warehouse fire followed by an explosion.
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Analysis of the Toropets Ammunition Depot Attack
🎦 16:45-22:51⏩
Jonathan analyses the aftermath of the significant explosion at an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia, which he previously reported as breaking news. He highlights 19 recorded earthquakes ranging from 2 to 2.8 on the Richter scale following the initial drone strike, indicating the massive scale of the explosions at the ammo depot.
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Russian Responses and Criticism of the Toropets Attack
🎦 22:51-25:47⏩
Jonathan focuses on the responses and criticisms surrounding the Toropets ammunition depot attack within Russia. He notes the widespread criticism from various segments of Russian society, including pro-war figures and military bloggers, regarding the handling of the situation and the apparent lack of security measures that allowed such an attack to occur.
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Russian Propagandists Advocate for Destroying Villages in Kursk
🎦 25:47-26:38⏩
Jonathan presents a disturbing trend where Russian propagandists on state-controlled television are openly advocating for the destruction of villages in the Kursk region. This disturbing rhetoric reflects the brutal and inhumane tactics that Russia seems willing to employ.
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Blackouts Drive Ukrainians Abroad
🎦 26:38-27:45⏩
Jonathan discusses a UN report highlighting the increasing number of Ukrainians leaving the country due to blackouts caused by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. He raises concerns about the impact of this migration on Ukraine's economy and potential mobilisation efforts.
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Wild Berries Headquarters Incident in Moscow
🎦 27:45-28:12⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to an incident at the Moscow headquarters of Wildberries, Russia's equivalent of Amazon. He describes a chaotic situation involving armed gangs linked to the company's divorcing co-owners, highlighting the escalating instability and lawlessness within Russia.
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Positive Developments for Ukraine (pinch of salt)
🎦 28:12-31:44⏩
Jonathan presents a series of positive developments for Ukraine, compiled by a source named David D, while urging viewers to take the information with a "pinch of salt" due to its potentially pro-Ukrainian bias.
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Philosophical Sidebar: Evidence, Intuition and Determining Truth
🎦 31:44-41:00⏩
Triggered by a viewer's question about a video showing a deceased Ukrainian soldier with a sword, Jonathan embarks on a philosophical exploration of how to evaluate information and determine the most likely truth. He introduces philosophical concepts like phenomenal conservatism – the idea that we're justified in believing things are as they appear unless there's evidence to the contrary. Jonathan emphasises the importance of considering prior probabilities (Bayesian reasoning), arguing that our intuitions are often shaped by past observations and patterns. He uses the example of Russian war crimes and brutality to illustrate how prior knowledge can inform our judgment.
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Wrap Up
🎦 41:00-41:03⏩
Jonathan concludes the video hoping his philosophical explanation makes sense and signs off.
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