Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231012a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"I honestly think Russia's running out of options. I don't think there's much they can adjust anymore."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, an update on the Ukraine War for October 12th, 2023, focusing on the recent activity around Avdiivka.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Avdiivka Offensive
- The Russians launched a sizable offensive to try and encircle Avdiivka, attacking from the north (Krasnohorivka area) and south (Opytne area)
- The attack appears to have been a failure for the Russians, with them losing a significant amount of equipment
- This may have been a political decision, with Putin wanting to capture Avdiivka
Russian Equipment Losses
- Ukrainian General Staff figures show 990 Russian personnel losses, the 3rd highest in the last 3 months
- 42 tanks, 44 APVs (down from 91 the previous day), 32 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 21 drones, 1 cruise missile, 25 vehicles/fuel tanks, and 1 piece of special equipment lost
- These figures could be accurate based on the amount of footage, both released and unreleased
- Anecdote from Andrew Perpetua about unreleased footage of 20 Russian losses from a single Ukrainian drone operator
Other Military Updates
- Russian patrol ship Pavel Deyaven damaged near Sevastopol, likely hitting a sea mine
- Visual confirmation of roughly 13 artillery pieces, 15 tanks, 33 IFVs/APCs, 6 trucks, and 14 cars/vans lost by Russia in the Avdiivka offensive over the last 2 days (Oryx)
- Roughly a battalion tactical group's worth of vehicle losses for Russia
- Andrew Perpetua: "Russia's running out of options" in terms of what they can adjust militarily and diplomatically
Strikes and Attacks
- 33 Shahed drones sent by Russia overnight, 28 shot down
- Hits confirmed on the port of Izmail in the Odessa region
- Something reported burning in Belgorod, Russia after air defense activity
- Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge between Yenakiieve and Horlivka, a main Russian supply route for the Avdiivka offensive
Other News
- Ukraine will continue offensive operations in the winter, according to US Joint Chiefs of Staff after conversations with Zelenskyy and Ukrainian Defence Minister
- Two Ukrainian brothers reportedly coordinated the deadly attack on Olenivka POW camp
- British intelligence suggests over 100,000 Russian troops suffering from mental health issues, but are still being sent to the front lines
- Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov claims Russia has the economic capacity to fight until 2025-2026, and warns of a looming "global war"
OSINT and Disinformation
Jonathan highlights the importance of providing original sources when sharing OSINT (open-source intelligence) to combat the spread of disinformation and misinformation. He agrees with Eliot Higgins from Bellingcat that OSINT accounts should link to original sources for transparency and to allow others to verify the information.
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Ramzan Kadyrov Health Speculation
A video of Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic, jogging has sparked speculation about his health. Jonathan suggests that Kadyrov may have been poisoned and is suffering from organ failure, based on the stark contrast between this video and a previous, more energetic PR video.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the first part of the news update and directs viewers to the upcoming second part. He thanks the audience for their support.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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