Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"As soon as Ukraine fires 28 hackens into Russia, all hell breaks loose. Oh, whoa, oh my goodness, Biden administration, hang on. 100 North Korean missiles? What have you got to say about that? Oh, nothing, how convenient, how convenient."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, focusing on military aid news for the 25th of November 2024.
Return to top⤴️
EU vs US Funding for Ukraine
🎦 00:09-03:32⏩
Jonathan addresses the ongoing debate about EU versus US financial support for Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of accuracy as the US administration transitions. He cites Shashank Joshi from The Economist, highlighting that Europe has actually allocated around 40% more aid to Ukraine than the US, totalling €118.2 billion with a further €74.1 billion yet to be allocated (compared to the US's €84.7 billion allocated and €15 billion unallocated). Key points raised:
- The figures only cover aid up to August 31st, 2024.
- Allocated aid doesn't equal immediate delivery, as delays are possible (e.g. Germany’s pledge of MRAPs).
- The US possesses significant stockpiles of equipment for immediate support through presidential drawdown authority, giving it a unique advantage.
- Jonathan believes Europe has contributed its fair share. He also acknowledges the strategic interest the US has in supporting Ukraine.
Lithuanian Military Aid Package
🎦 03:32-03:52⏩
Lithuania has sent Ukraine a new military aid package including:
- Generators
- M113 APCs
- Spare parts
- Weapons
- Ammunition
This information has been confirmed by the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Domestically Developing Guided Aerial Bombs
🎦 03:52-04:03⏩
Jonathan reports that the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has confirmed Ukraine is developing its own guided aerial bombs, a development previously reported but with limited details on a timeline for deployment.
Return to top⤴️
Guided Bomb Usage by Ukraine and Russia
🎦 04:03-04:59⏩
Jonathan analyses the use of guided bombs by both sides, noting:
- Ukraine needs to reach parity with Russia in terms of usage frequency.
- Evidence suggests Ukraine is employing these weapons, but it’s unclear if their usage matches Russia’s.
- Recent months might have seen a decline in Russia's guided bomb deployment due to several factors, including threats to their airfields and potential losses in air advantage.
Drone Coalition Funding
🎦 04:59-05:44⏩
Jonathan highlights the formation of a “drone coalition” that will allocate €1.8 billion to Ukraine for drone technology. While the initial wording suggests the funding covers only the next six weeks, he believes it's likely intended for the next year, underscoring the vital role drones play in this conflict.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine's Increased Drone Strike Potential
🎦 05:44-06:39⏩
Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Jonathan reports that Ukraine's drone (or possibly missile) strike capabilities have increased by 2,000 km. It's unclear whether this refers to a range extension or the overall reach. He speculates that the actual range might be closer to 2,000 km, potentially allowing Ukraine to target a much larger area within Russia. This is based on previous reports of Ukrainian drone strikes at 1,600 km, exceeding the initially assumed 1,000 km limit.
Return to top⤴️
First Assault Rifle Use by a Ukrainian FPV Drone
🎦 06:39-07:18⏩
Jonathan discusses the historic use of an assault rifle mounted on a Ukrainian "Queen of Hornets" FPV drone, marking the first recorded instance of such a weapon being used in combat.
- The drone, a modified Wild Hornets model equipped with an AK-47, successfully neutralized Russian infantry after FPV drones destroyed an armoured column.
- Jonathan notes the tactical advantage of deploying such machines to eliminate threats instead of risking soldiers in hazardous situations.
US Provides Transformers for Ukraine's Energy Grid
🎦 07:18-08:15⏩
In response to Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, the US, through USAID, has delivered 12 transformers to frontline distribution operators. These transformers will provide reliable electricity to over 45,000 residents in frontline areas. Ambassador Bridget Brink emphasizes the importance of this delivery, especially with a potentially challenging winter ahead.
Return to top⤴️
EU & US Funding for DTEK Energy Infrastructure Restoration
🎦 08:15-09:06⏩
Jonathan reports that the EU and US governments are allocating $112 million to DTEK, a private Ukrainian energy company that has suffered extensive damage to its infrastructure due to Russian attacks:
- $63 million will be provided by the European Commission.
- $46 million will be provided by the US government.
- DTEK has reportedly spent over $1.2 billion of its own funds on restoration throughout the war, a testament to the scale of destruction inflicted on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Call for Increased European Defence Spending and Innovation
🎦 09:06-09:43⏩
Citing Benjamin Tallis, Jonathan relays a message from Kajsa Ollongren, the Dutch former defense minister, delivered at the CH Europe conference in Berlin: Europe must increase defense spending, expedite aid delivery, and embrace innovation to effectively address the ongoing security challenges.
Return to top⤴️
France Lifts Restrictions on Non-EU Defence Funding
🎦 09:43-11:46⏩
France has dropped its opposition to allowing non-EU companies to receive funds from the European Defence Investment Plan, now permitting up to 35% of the funds to go to companies outside the 27 member states.
- Jonathan explains this is a significant shift, as France (and Greece) previously insisted that EU funds for initiatives like the Czech artillery shell production should remain within the bloc.
- The policy change comes as the EU acknowledges its inability to meet all its defence needs internally, forcing it to procure equipment from non-EU countries like the UK.
- Sweden, a significant investor in the UK-based BAE Systems, has been advocating for this change. While the plan is still under development and awaits a final vote next year, this move could potentially open doors for increased UK defence industry participation in EU projects.
Potential Deployment of European Troops to Ukraine
🎦 11:46-16:06⏩
Jonathan discusses reports from Le Monde suggesting that discussions in Europe regarding the deployment of troops to Ukraine have resumed, particularly after Trump’s recent election victory. Several analysts, including Shashank Joshi and Mark Urban, suggest that these discussions are gaining traction. They are exploring various scenarios and considerations:
- Triggers for Deployment:
- A significant Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv (unlikely).
- As part of a ceasefire agreement to enforce disengagement and train new Ukrainian army formations, similar to the period before February 2022, as suggested by Macron.
- Troop Origins:
- Unlikely to be drawn from existing NATO deployments in Eastern Europe (EFP forces), as this would weaken those positions.
- NATO reserves are also unlikely to be deployed.
- US Support:
- Uncertainty remains over the extent of backing a European force would receive from the Trump administration, particularly regarding air defence.
- American troops are highly unlikely to be committed, given the rhetoric from both sides of the US political spectrum.
- Deployment Duration:
- Could be open-ended to enforce a peace deal or time-bound to allow Ukrainian forces time to rebuild and train.
- Deployment Location:
- Options include a distant overwatch force in far western Ukraine, a forward tripwire close to the front lines (unlikely), or a position in between.
- Cost and Funding:
- Deploying a brigade to Ukraine would likely cost more than the estimated €5-7 billion required for a German brigade stationed in Lithuania.
- One proposal suggests using frozen Russian sovereign assets to finance the deployment.
- While the probability of European troops deploying to Ukraine remains relatively low, Jonathan acknowledges it's a plausible scenario that the Trump administration might push for, potentially as part of a deal where Europe increases defence spending and risk-taking in exchange for assured US involvement, including continued provision of ammunition and military equipment.
French Contractors Potentially Training Ukrainian Troops in Ukraine
🎦 16:06-16:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the possibility of French military contractors training Ukrainian soldiers within Ukraine:
- This follows reports that the primary contractor for the French Ministry of Armed Forces has expressed willingness to provide training within Ukraine, similar to their existing programs in France and Poland.
- This is a noteworthy development, as it contrasts with the US position, which allows contractors to operate in Ukraine but restricts commanders from meeting their counterparts in Kyiv. This highlights the importance of direct communication and collaboration in such situations.
German Minister Criticises Slow Arms Deliveries to Ukraine
🎦 16:55-17:21⏩
Jonathan reports on German Green Party economics minister Habeck's criticism of the government's delayed response in providing arms to Ukraine.
- Habeck condemns Scholz's hesitant approach to arms deliveries, asserting that decisions were made too slowly, negatively impacting those suffering in Ukraine.
- He stresses the urgent need to deliver Taurus missiles quickly.
Scholz to Lead SPD in Next German Election
🎦 17:21-17:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent vote confirming Olaf Scholz as the leader of the SPD for the upcoming German elections, expected in February 2025:
- Despite the popularity of Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, he has withdrawn from the running, and Scholz retains the support of the centre-left party.
- Jonathan expresses doubt about the SPD’s chances of success in the upcoming election.
Concerns about Pete Hegseth's Nomination as US Defence Secretary
🎦 17:50-21:24⏩
Jonathan dissects concerns surrounding Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for US Defence Secretary:
- Hegseth has attracted criticism, particularly for his stance against women in combat roles. This view faces opposition from a female Republican senator and former Lieutenant Colonel, potentially jeopardising his confirmation.
- Jonathan argues that while Hegseth’s stance might appeal to some as “anti-woke,” it ignores the practicalities of modern military recruitment. He emphasizes that broadening recruitment demographics is essential, particularly given the declining interest in military service among today’s youth. Excluding women would significantly shrink the pool of potential recruits, creating a practical challenge for maintaining troop numbers.
- Furthermore, Trump’s reported intention to ban transgender individuals from the armed forces raises further concerns:
- Such a move could result in the expulsion of approximately 15,000 individuals from the US armed forces, creating a significant personnel gap and potentially triggering legal challenges.
- Jonathan highlights that while such actions may seem ideologically aligned with certain viewpoints, their practical implications on military readiness and capacity must be carefully considered.
- Shashank Joshi expresses doubts about Hegseth’s confirmation due to these controversial positions.
- Jonathan notes that the Senate, with its six-year terms and more established members, tends to be more pragmatic than the House of Representatives, where two-year cycles can lead to more ideologically driven decision-making. He speculates that Hegseth's confirmation, along with that of Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr., is uncertain due to potential Senate pushback.
Hegseth's Views on European Defence and NATO
🎦 21:24-24:15⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about Pete Hegseth’s views on European defence and NATO, particularly in the context of future aid to Ukraine:
- Hegseth’s statement, “The defence of Europe is not our problem,” raises red flags, as does his dismissal of NATO as a “relic” that needs to be “scrapped and remade."
- Jonathan contrasts this with the ongoing, often overlooked, US military aid packages to Ukraine, such as the recent $275 million shipment of HIMARS ammunition, 105mm and 155mm artillery shells. He argues that these regular contributions are vital for Ukraine’s continued resistance against Russia.
- He expresses apprehension over Hegseth and Trump's shared scepticism towards NATO, believing it could destabilize global security and undermine US global leadership.
- Jonathan argues that withdrawing from global engagement and adopting an isolationist “America First” approach will diminish US influence and lead to negative consequences. He believes that continued global investment is crucial for maintaining the US’s international standing and securing its interests.
North Korean Missiles Used by Russia Contain Foreign Parts
🎦 24:15-25:16⏩
Jonathan revisits the topic of North Korea's supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, highlighting new evidence:
- Photographs now support previous claims that KN-23 and KN-24 missiles provided to Russia contain foreign-made components dating back to 2020, indicating potential breaches in international sanctions.
- Ukrainian intelligence estimates Russia has received approximately 100 of these missiles.
- Jonathan criticizes the lack of response from the international community, particularly the US, to this development, contrasting it with the outrage that erupted when Ukraine launched 28 HARM missiles into Russia.
Ukrainian FPV Drones Reduce Russian Drone Strikes
🎦 25:16-27:05⏩
Jonathan highlights a positive development: Ukrainian FPV drones, particularly Wild Hornets and other interceptor models, have successfully reduced enemy drone strikes by 75%.
- He notes the effectiveness of Russian Lancet drones, despite appearing regularly on Ukrainian loss lists, but emphasizes that Ukrainian interceptor drones are proving very successful in countering their threat, alongside other Russian reconnaissance and strike drones like the Orlan-10, Orlan-30, Zala, and Supercam.
- Data, particularly from November, showcases a significant decrease in confirmed Russian drone strikes, signifying a major victory for Ukrainian drone warfare efforts.
North Korea Expanding Missile Production Facility
🎦 27:05-28:52⏩
Jonathan reports on North Korea’s expansion of a key weapons production facility, potentially indicating an increase in missile production for use by Russia in the Ukraine conflict.
- Satellite imagery reveals an expansion of the February 11 plant, part of the Ryongsong Machinery Complex in Hamheung, which is the only known manufacturing site for the Hwasong-11 solid fuel rocket. The expansion includes a new assembly building and housing, suggesting a substantial boost in production capacity.
- Jonathan notes this is concerning for Ukraine, as the potential involvement of North Korean soldiers and their equipment (including self-propelled guns, multiple launch rocket systems, missiles, and rockets) could significantly alter the war's trajectory in Russia's favour. This could allow Russia to avoid a costly and domestically unpopular mass mobilization.
Supporting Ukraine by Buying Ukrainian Wine
🎦 28:52-29:58⏩
In a lighter note, Jonathan shares a tip from a viewer (Train Driver Day) on how to support Ukraine: buying Ukrainian wine. He mentions that Lidl, a German supermarket chain with stores across Europe (and the UK), is now selling Ukrainian wines. Jonathan, a self-professed wine enthusiast, expresses excitement about this development and plans to check his local Lidl for this new addition.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 29:58-30:03⏩
Jonathan wraps up the update, thanking viewers for watching and bidding them farewell until the next video.
Return to top⤴️
