Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The best men, women, children. That's it. But we are not ready to give our freedom to this terrorist Putin. That's it. Boom! Drop that mic."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update. This is the first update for the 17th of October, and he apologises for it being late, due to family commitments.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Zelensky in Brussels
🎦 00:09-02:03⏩
Jonathan shares a clip from Meet the Press in which Zelensky states that whilst Ukraine has a lot of power, they don't want to fight forever at such a high cost. He reiterates that Ukraine will not give up their freedom to Putin, who he labels a "terrorist".
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Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses (16/10/2024)
🎦 02:03-02:56⏩
- 1420 Russian personnel killed.
- 17 Tanks destroyed.
- 33 APCs destroyed.
- 51 Artillery systems destroyed.
- 1 MLRS destroyed.
- 83 Vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed.
- 5 Pieces of special equipment destroyed.
Jonathan notes that the figures are very high, likely due to Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north-east. He adds that Russian sources have also confirmed high attrition rates, particularly in the Prokhorivka area.
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Andrew Perpetua: Visual Confirmed Losses (16/10/2024)
🎦 02:56-07:50⏩
Jonathan reviews visually confirmed losses for both sides, as reported by Andrew Perpetua, noting the positive loss ratio for Ukraine (4:1). Ukrainian Losses:
- 1 x AN/TPQ-50 radar.
- 1 x Boat.
- Several artillery pieces including M109 and M119 howitzers.
- Several tanks, including T-64 and T-72s.
- 1 x BMP-2.
- Several APCs, including Strykers and M113s.
- 2 x MaxxPro MRAPs.
- 1 x Kozak MRAP.
- A number of civilian vehicles, mainly pickups, SUVs, and vans.
Russian Losses:
- 1 x Tor-M1 air defence system (destroyed by a Vampire drone).
- Several Vampire drones.
- 2 x BREM-1 armoured recovery vehicles.
- 1 x Boat.
- 1 x TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS (abandoned)
- 1 x TOS thermobaric MLRS (damaged)
- 1 x 240mm 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled mortar.
- Several MT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns.
- 3 x Repair vehicles (damaged).
- Several D-30 howitzers.
- Numerous tanks, including T-62s, T-72s, T-80s, and a T-90M.
- A large number of BMP infantry fighting vehicles and other APCs.
- Several trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles, including motorcycles.
Jonathan observes that a large number of the motorcycles were likely those featured in recent drone footage. He recounts an interaction with a viewer who highlighted the difficulty of maneuvering motorcycles over railway tracks, especially when exhausted.
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12th Special Purpose Brigade (Azov) Captures 24 Russian Soldiers
🎦 07:50-08:47⏩
Jonathan reports that the 12th Special Purpose Brigade of the Azov have captured two dozen Russian soldiers near New York, Donetsk Oblast. He highlights that Azov will ensure the safety of the prisoners and will add them to the exchange fund. This will be aided by the upcoming fundraising efforts of NAFO and the 2nd National Guard Unit (part of Azov) for a new SUV. He concludes that, whilst this will help with future prisoner exchanges, Russia continues to execute Ukrainian POWs.
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Conscript Killed in Kursk
🎦 08:47-10:08⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian conscript, Vorobyov Danila Dmitrievich, was killed in the Kursk Oblast within 24 hours of arriving. Deployed on September 11th, he last made contact on September 12th. Jonathan criticises Russia's use of poorly trained conscripts in active combat zones. He speculates that, unlike other Russian losses, the deaths of conscripts may have a greater impact on the Russian psyche due to the circumstances.
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Oryx: Russian Equipment Losses in Kursk Oblast
🎦 10:08-11:34⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian equipment losses in Kursk Oblast using data from Oryx. He explains that whilst the region had a loss ratio of 1.5:1 in favour of Ukraine (based on open-source data compiled by NAUSICAA), recent trends show that Russia is now losing more equipment. Jonathan attributes this to a shift in battlefield dynamics, with Russia predominantly on the offensive and Ukraine primarily on the defensive. He notes that both sides are likely utilising maneuver warfare tactics, leading to higher equipment losses.
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Estimating Ukrainian Losses
🎦 11:34-13:35⏩
Jonathan explains that he doesn't often provide estimates of Ukrainian losses because there are no reliable sources, with most data coming from Russian sources. To illustrate his point, Jonathan cites a recent tweet from Kim Dotcom which put Ukrainian casualties at 1.8 million, including 780,000 killed. He labels Kim Dotcom a "Russian simp" and criticises the figures as "pure fantasy". He refers to analysis from War Vehicle Tracker, which shows similarly exaggerated figures for destroyed Ukrainian equipment, noting how these claims should be dismissed.
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Possible Sabotage at St Petersburg Helicopter Factory
🎦 13:35-14:29⏩
Jonathan cites reports that six masked men, armed with axes and hammers, broke into a helicopter parts factory in St Petersburg and damaged machinery, including engines, which are in short supply. This has led to speculation that Russia has attempted to buy back helicopter engines previously exported. It's unclear whether the incident was an act of sabotage or related to other activities, such as payment from Ukrainian individuals.
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Ukrainian Tank Destroys Russian BTR-82A
🎦 14:29-15:25⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Ukrainian tank destroying a Russian BTR-82A at point-blank range. The BTR-82A is seen moving alongside a column of Ukrainian tanks before one breaks off and opens fire. Jonathan surmises that there was likely communication between Ukrainian drone operators and the tank crew.
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Muddy Conditions Affecting Ukrainian Operations
🎦 15:25-15:56⏩
Jonathan highlights a photo, shared by the Ukrainian general staff, of Bradleys struggling to move through the mud, noting how the rasputitsa (muddy conditions) will only worsen in the coming weeks. He concludes that the mud will have an impact on both Ukrainian losses and the tempo of operations.
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FPV Drone Intercepts Russian Recon Drone
🎦 15:56-16:36⏩
Jonathan analyses interesting footage of a Ukrainian FPV drone intercepting a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone. Whilst the warhead on the FPV drone failed to detonate, it was able to grapple with the Zala, bringing both drones down. It's claimed that the Zala was acting as a repeater for a Lancet loitering munition. This resulted in the Lancet also crashing after losing connection with the downed Zala.
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Front Line Updates
🎦 16:36-17:23⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers that he provided a more in-depth frontline update in a previous video but reiterates that the offensive in the Prokhorivka direction, whilst yielding the greatest gains, is coming at a high cost for the Russians. He also notes that the Russians have increased remote mining efforts using drones, such as the Vampire.
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The Effectiveness of Drone Warfare
🎦 17:23-19:52⏩
Jonathan highlights a Twitter thread by Andrew Perpetua, in which he compares the cost and effectiveness of artillery to FPV drones. Jonathan analyses Perpetua's argument that:
- A single artillery shell can cost between 8-18 times more than an FPV drone.
- It's questionable whether an unguided artillery shell can inflict more damage than a single FPV.
- Artillery can't reliably outrange FPV drones.
- EW countermeasures are ineffective when drones enter "radio silence" mode.
- Drones are now able to fly low to the ground, utilising terrain for cover.
Perpetua concludes that these advancements mean that drones are no longer 10 years away from supplanting artillery - they already are. Jonathan concurs, adding that whilst artillery has greater explosive power, accuracy remains an issue. In contrast, drones offer increased accuracy at a lower cost, making them arguably more effective in many scenarios.
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Russian Special Forces Colonel Shot Dead
🎦 19:52-21:09⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian Special Forces Colonel Nikita Klinkov was shot dead in his car near Moscow. Klinkov, deputy head of a GRU military unit, had recently returned from Ukraine. According to reports, the suspect pulled alongside Klinkov's car and fired at least eight shots through the driver's window. Whilst it is unclear whether the killing was linked to internal Russian rivalries or Ukrainian sabotage, the brazen nature of the attack is notable.
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Fire at Moscow Airfield
🎦 21:09-21:32⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire at the Chkalovsky military airfield in Moscow. The administrative building was engulfed in flames, with the fire spanning 800 square metres. It's unclear if the fire was the result of a Ukrainian attack or an act of sabotage.
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Dragon's Teeth Mystery
🎦 21:32-22:05⏩
Jonathan refers back to a previous video in which he shared imagery of dragon's teeth seemingly being transported by a Baba Yaga drone. He notes that many viewers identified the image as a fake, but questions how the dragon's teeth are being deployed behind Russian lines.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 22:05-23:06⏩
Jonathan details the results of the overnight Russian drone and missile attacks.
- 1/1 Cruise missile shot down.
- 22/56 Shahed drones shot down.
- 27 Shahed drones intercepted by electronic warfare.
- 2 Shahed drones returned to Belarus.
- 5 Shahed drones confirmed as hitting their targets.
Two Shahed drones were also shot down over Belarus. He concludes that Russia is increasingly targeting civilian infrastructure and that Ukraine faces a challenging winter ahead.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 23:06-23:51⏩
Jonathan reports that more than 7,000 Ukrainian strikes have hit Russian territory this year, the furthest reaching over 1700km from the border. He adds that these long-range drone strikes have targeted both military sites and key infrastructure, such as oil refineries.
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Russian Black Sea Fleet Ineffective?
🎦 23:51-24:11⏩
Jonathan cites the Kyiv Independent, which claims that the Russian Black Sea fleet has proven ineffective in launching missile attacks. According to Ukrainian naval sources, they are now mainly used to distract Ukrainian air defences. Jonathan notes that there is a lack of clarity as to what exactly the Black Sea Fleet is being used for.
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Quick Fire Round-Up
🎦 24:11-26:32⏩
- Russian offensive operations in the Kursk Oblast have slowed as Ukrainian forces regroup.
- Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations into the Belgorod Oblast, around Zhuralevka.
- Ukrainian forces have recaptured forest areas in the Kharkiv Oblast, north of Lyptsi.
- Kenneth Greg, a Finnish volunteer fighting in Ukraine, has stated that Zelensky's optimism is justified, hinting at upcoming events.
- A pro-Ukrainian mob stormed St Michael's Cathedral in Cherkasy. The cathedral, previously under the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate, was recently transferred to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
- The capture of the coal mine near Prokhorivka is a blow to Ukraine, potentially halving its steel production.
- There have been reports of power cuts in parts of Moscow, raising questions about the impact of war spending on Russian infrastructure.
Wrap Up
🎦 26:32-26:37⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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