Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Black Sea oil Disaster
Table of Contents 📖
"In a cosy British study with a steaming cup of tea, there's a legend of the multiverse broadcasting with glee."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:11⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video. He's enjoying a cup of tea and points out his Christmas decorations - a wreath and a star. He mentions his book, "The Nativity: A Critical Examination," for those interested in the history and skepticism surrounding the nativity.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:11-02:40⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily figures of Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff. He notes that there has been a decrease in video footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, which could be reflected in the slightly lower equipment losses reported. However, personnel losses remain high at 1,580, suggesting a potential shift towards infantry-led attacks.
Return to top⤴️
North Korean Presence in Ukraine
🎦 02:41-03:29⏩
There are increasing reports of wounded North Korean soldiers in a Kursk hospital, confirming their active role in the conflict. Jonathan highlights video footage of the soldiers at the medical facility, noting different claims regarding their casualty numbers.
Return to top⤴️
Suspected Poisoning of Vladimir Kara-Murza's Mother
🎦 03:30-04:53⏩
Jonathan reports on the suspected poisoning of Yelena Gordina, mother of recently released Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza, in Berlin. German police are treating it as a potential murder attempt, highlighting a concerning pattern of targeting journalists and critics, including Alexei Navalny's poisoning.
Return to top⤴️
Assassination of Lieutenant General Kirillov
🎦 04:53-06:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent assassination of Russian Lieutenant General Kirillov, involved in nuclear and chemical warfare, by Ukrainian forces. He critiques the Russian response, which involved a quick arrest of an Uzbek man who confessed (likely under duress) to the killing in exchange for money and a European passport. This follows a familiar pattern of deflecting blame and creating a narrative that exonerates the regime.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Air Defence Success & Rostov Mash Plant Fire
🎦 06:39-07:38⏩
Jonathan commends the Ukrainian air defense for achieving a 100% success rate overnight, intercepting a large wave of 81 Russian drones, including dummies designed to deplete Ukrainian defenses. He also mentions unconfirmed reports of a fire at the Rostov Mash Plant, a facility known for repairing armored vehicles, hinting at potential ongoing events within Russia that go unreported.
Return to top⤴️
Atlas Oil Depot Attack (November 29th)
🎦 07:38-08:08⏩
Jonathan highlights satellite imagery confirming damage to at least five fuel tanks at the Atlas Oil Depot in Russia, attacked on November 29th. The imagery also reveals previous damage from an earlier attack, signifying the vulnerability of such strategic targets.
Return to top⤴️
Zelensky's Stance on Donbas and Crimea
🎦 08:08-10:34⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's reported statement that Ukraine lacks the military capacity to retake Donbas and Crimea but is constitutionally prohibited from ceding them. He believes this reinforces the need for either an economic collapse in Russia, leading to regime change, or the use of extensive long-range strikes for Ukraine to achieve its objectives. Jonathan speculates that Ukraine might be waiting for the right moment, potentially before the January 20th negotiations, to intensify attacks and force Russia to concede. However, he cautions that such a strategy could provoke an unpredictable and dangerous response from a cornered Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Denis Pushilin's Christmas Photo Op in Avdiivka
🎦 10:35-13:17⏩
Jonathan analyses a video of Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk People's Republic, participating in a sparsely attended Christmas tree ceremony in Avdiivka. He contrasts this with the likely turnout for a similar event in a UK city like Manchester, highlighting the lack of genuine public support for Pushilin and, by extension, the Russian occupation. The video, meant to be a display of normalcy and celebration, inadvertently exposes the bleak reality of life under occupation.
Return to top⤴️
Mobile Internet Shutdown in Occupied Crimea
🎦 13:17-15:10⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian authorities are shutting down mobile internet access in occupied Crimea, citing security concerns and the alleged use of local SIM cards in Ukrainian drones. He draws parallels with Russia's own use of SIM cards in their Shahed drone attacks on Ukraine, suggesting that Ukraine might be employing similar tactics to misdirect Russian defenses.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Bond Yields & Economic Indicators
🎦 15:10-17:29⏩
Jonathan, with input from commenter Jane Keefe, analyses the rising bond yields of Russian state monopolies, indicating declining bond values and potential economic instability. He explains that high bond yields can be correlated with inflation and an overall negative economic outlook. Specifically, he cites yields soaring to 30% for Apator, 28% for Russian Post, 26% for Russian Railways, 31% for Kamaz, and 26% for Rostelecom. He agrees with a commenter who suggests that China may soon capitalize on Russia's economic woes, potentially acquiring assets and resources at bargain prices or leveraging its position for geopolitical gains. Jonathan believes China benefits regardless of the war's outcome, either by aiding a weakened Russia and reaping rewards or by exploiting a collapsed Russia for its resources.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Railways Misses Profit Target & Elvira Nabiullina's Potential Scapegoating
🎦 17:29-20:43⏩
Continuing his discussion on Russia's economic struggles, Jonathan reveals that Russian Railways has missed its 2024 profit target by a staggering 90%, highlighting the deepening financial strain. He then shifts focus to the potential scapegoating of Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Russian Central Bank. He argues that while Nabiullina has been effective in stabilizing the Russian economy despite immense pressure from sanctions, inflation, and the war, she's running out of options. He believes Putin is preparing to blame her for the worsening economic situation to deflect responsibility from himself and the war. He compares this to the challenges faced by governments worldwide in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing that the US, under Biden's leadership, has been particularly successful in mitigating economic fallout. In contrast, Russia's economic woes are deeply rooted in the consequences of the war.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Tanker Spills in the Black Sea & Environmental Impact
🎦 20:43-23:29⏩
Jonathan expresses his concern over the increasing number of Russian tanker incidents, highlighting the environmental disaster unfolding in the Black Sea. He describes a third Russian tanker, the Volganeft 109, experiencing a hull crack and leaking fuel oil near the port of Kabkaz. He condemns the apparent lack of significant cleanup efforts by Russian authorities, drawing a stark contrast with the response to disasters like the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The video footage, showing oil-covered beaches and distressed wildlife, underscores the severity of the situation.
Return to top⤴️
Flooding in Sochi and its Significance
🎦 23:30-24:38⏩
Jonathan reports on flooding in Sochi, Russia, caused by the overflowing Karata River, leading to power outages and submerged roads. He emphasizes the city's significance as a prominent holiday destination, home to one of Putin's palaces, and the location of a previous Winter Olympics. The flooding, he suggests, could further expose the vulnerabilities of Russia's infrastructure and emergency response systems.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Real Estate Market Predictions & Economic Consequences
🎦 24:38-28:03⏩
Jonathan, again citing commenter Jane Keefe, shares projections of a potential 50% drop in Russian real estate prices, reaching 2018 levels. He explains that declining demand and rising mortgage costs contribute to this prediction. He warns of the broader economic consequences, including bankruptcies in the construction industry, supply chain disruptions, job losses, and a decrease in consumer spending. Jonathan criticizes austerity measures as ineffective in stimulating economic growth, drawing parallels with the UK's experience and expressing concerns about potential cuts proposed by Doge in the US. He contrasts this with the success of government-led infrastructure projects, like the New Deal, in revitalizing struggling economies. He argues that Russia's focus on funding the war, while a form of economic stimulus, is narrowly focused and ultimately unsustainable.
Return to top⤴️
Yipeng-3 Undersea Cable Investigation & Potential Russian Involvement
🎦 28:03-28:57⏩
Jonathan discusses an investigation into the Chinese ship Yipeng-3, revealing potential involvement in damaging multiple undersea cables between Denmark and Sweden. The ship, allegedly with a Russian captain, was en route to Russia. He believes this act, if proven, constitutes a form of hybrid warfare orchestrated by Russia, emphasizing the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
Return to top⤴️
Christmas Song Tribute and Fundraising Efforts
🎦 28:57-32:23⏩
Jonathan plays a Christmas song created by a viewer, Benny Pye, dedicated to the ATP Geopolitics channel and its community. The song humorously references Jonathan's broadcasting style, the channel's growth, and its dedication to calling out disinformation. He acknowledges the cringe-worthy aspect of having a song about him but emphasizes the community spirit it represents. Jonathan also reminds viewers about the ongoing fundraising efforts for pickup trucks for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 32:23-32:56⏩
Jonathan expresses his gratitude to viewers, reminding them about his upcoming live streams with guests like Jonathan Fink and Andrew Mikado. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video, concluding with a reminder that his viewers are "absolute legends."
Return to top⤴️
