Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is how I will approach this task:
Understand the context: I will carefully read and understand the provided context about "ATP Distilled" and Jonathan's work.
Follow the task instructions: I will follow the step-by-step instructions for each task, paying attention to the rules and guidance provided.
Maintain consistency: I will ensure consistency in language (British English), spelling of Ukrainian place names, and formatting of the XML tags throughout the summary.
Proofread and edit: I will proofread and edit the summary for any errors before submitting the final response.
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG video, a slightly delayed Ukraine War News Update for the 9th of September 2024, acknowledging a busy day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - General Staff Figures
🎦 00:14-01:19⏩
Reviewing the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses, Jonathan notes:
- Personnel losses are down slightly at 1,150, still tragically high but within the normal range (1,000-1,300) after recent spikes.
- Equipment losses are also down: 3 tanks, 9 AFVs, and 26 artillery systems, all below the recent averages, alongside 44 vehicles and fuel tanks, plus 2 pieces of special equipment.
- He ponders the sustainability of these losses for Russia in the long term.
Russian and Ukrainian Losses: Andrew Perpetua's Analysis (2 days prior)
🎦 01:48-07:07⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's visually detailed loss list from 2 days prior, highlighting the staggering number of Russian losses, mainly destroyed or abandoned.
- This follows a brief period of parity in losses, likely due to a delay in reporting.
- He points out the sheer quantity of destroyed Russian "civilian" vehicles – often used for military purposes – like UAZ vans, SUVs, etc.
- He then systematically goes through the losses on both sides, noting the destruction of a Russian 96L6TSP radar system (a high-value target, although an older hit from February).
- Ukrainian losses include a Leopard 2A4 tank (damaged, a significant loss), two Marder IFVs (captured, unusual and interesting), several APCs, and a mix of Western and indigenously produced mine-resistant vehicles.
- While not insignificant, Ukrainian losses are far outweighed by the sheer volume of destroyed Russian equipment, impacting their logistics and offensive capabilities.
Russian Claims vs. Reality: The Kursk "Massacre"
🎦 07:07-08:20⏩
Jonathan dissects the latest ludicrous Russian claims, highlighting their pattern of dishonesty.
- The Russian MOD claims 11,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in Kursk, just 1,000 less than the total contingent figure previously announced by Apti Alaudinov, the head of Akhmat.
- Applying the standard 3:1 casualty ratio (killed to wounded), this would mean no Ukrainian soldiers left in Kursk, exposing the absurdity of the claim.
- He uses a humorous meme to illustrate the point: "Is Russia speaking? Yes = Russia is lying. No = Russia is thinking of a lie."
Anecdotes from the Front: The Cost of Poor Leadership
🎦 08:20-12:15⏩
Jonathan shares a poignant and revealing anecdote from WarTranslated about the devastating impact of inexperienced leadership on the Russian side.
- A new, young battalion commander (25 years old) decides to move mortars closer to the infantry for greater accuracy, seemingly unaware of the threat from Ukrainian drones.
- This leads to heavy losses from kamikaze drone attacks, with entire mortar crews wiped out, suffering more casualties in three weeks than the previous two and a half years.
- The story highlights the desperate lack of qualified personnel in the Russian army and the tragic human cost of poor decision-making, with Jonathan providing details about each casualty, their ages, backgrounds, and hopes.
Poltava Death Toll Rises, Russian Artillery Issues
🎦 12:15-13:52⏩
- The death toll from the Russian missile strike on a training facility in Poltava on September 3rd has risen to 58, with 328 injured, a stark reminder of the human cost of the war.
- Jonathan transitions to reports of Russian artillery problems, with charges sourced from different places having inconsistent gunpowder weights, leading to accuracy issues.
- He connects this to Andrew Perpetua's observation of an unusual number of dud Russian rockets.
- A quote from a Russian soldier highlights the extent of the problem: "Why can't you hear anything? Because we brought 10 shells from six different places. The power weight distribution is different for every one. Each shell has its own shot calculation."
- This suggests potential issues with the reliability of ammunition, particularly that received from North Korea.
- Jonathan also notes the destruction of a Russian 9K332 Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system, further degrading their air defence capabilities.
Ukrainian Drone Warfare: Thermite Drones and Countering Russian Eyes
🎦 13:52-19:25⏩
- Jonathan discusses Ukrainian drone warfare, highlighting the widespread use of thermite-dropping drones (aka. "dragon smell" or "dragon fire").
- He points out their strategic deployment across the entire front line, from Kharkiv to Robotyne, indicating Ukraine is maximising their use before Russia can adapt.
- He then turns to the Russian Orion drone, a larger, Reaper-like platform rarely seen due to its vulnerability to air defence. Footage shows a rare instance of an Orion strike, hitting a Ukrainian T-64 tank with a KHB PLA guided missile.
- Similar concerns surround the Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone, recently shot down by Ukrainian National Guard's "Rubizh" Brigade in the Lyman-Kupiansk sector.
- While some claim a specialised anti-aircraft FPV drone was used, Jonathan questions whether it was a standard FPV drone repurposed for the task.
- He emphasizes the significance of Ukraine targeting these larger recon drones, crucial for Russian situational awareness.
Russia on Fire: An Uptick in Industrial Accidents and Fires
🎦 19:25-20:31⏩
- Jonathan notes a recent increase in fires and accidents within Russia, citing Tim White's observations.
- He provides examples: a significant fire at the AvtoVAZ vehicle plant in Togliatti (blamed on a fire in the metalworking area) and a furniture warehouse fire in Rostov (cause unknown).
- He draws a possible link to sanctions, lack of maintenance, or manpower shortages.
- He also mentions a gas explosion in Kyiv, unrelated to the war but a reminder of the everyday dangers faced by civilians.
Quieter Night for Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 20:31-22:19⏩
- Ukraine experienced a relatively quiet night regarding drone and missile attacks.
- Only 8 Shahed drones were detected, with 6 shot down and 2 neutralized by electronic warfare.
- Ukraine also intercepted 2 out of 3 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, with the third failing to reach its target.
- Jonathan highlights the relentless shelling that continues alongside these attacks, with Nikopol suffering heavy bombardment. He expresses his sadness over the death of a 16-year-old girl in Nikopol, condemning the indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Russian Drones Straying into NATO Airspace
🎦 22:19-23:23⏩
- Jonathan discusses the concerning trend of Russian drones and missiles crossing into NATO airspace.
- Latvia's president reports a Russian military drone crash in the eastern part of the country, believed to have entered via Belarus.
- This follows similar incidents in Poland and Romania.
- Romania is searching for a Russian Orlan drone, while Poland investigates a separate drone crash.
- He expresses surprise that these NATO countries haven't shot down any of these intruding drones, despite the potential risks.
More Fires and Explosions: Belgorod and Crimea Targeted
🎦 23:23-24:46⏩
- A hangar in Belgorod, Russia, caught fire following an exchange of cross-border fire. The governor attributes the blaze to a Ukrainian drone hitting a local business.
- Separately, a Russian fuel storage facility in Yatanovka, Belgorod (just 25km from the Ukrainian border), was engulfed in flames after a confirmed Ukrainian drone strike. The governor reported exploding tanks at the depot.
- Adding to the chaos, warehouses in Kerch, Crimea, were also ablaze, though the cause remains unknown. Jonathan speculates that such strikes might occur more frequently than reported on both sides of the conflict.
Zelensky's Government Reshuffle and Diplomatic Shifts
🎦 24:46-28:06⏩
- Jonathan discusses the recent reshuffle in Zelensky's government.
- Speechwriter Dmitry Litvin and former Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin have been appointed as presidential advisors.
- Kamyshin's move to Zelensky's inner circle suggests a possible promotion and highlights his success in previous roles (railways and strategic industries).
- Jonathan notes that this news, already circulating online, seemed to have escaped the notice of mainstream media commentators like Michael Clarke, demonstrating the value of his own in-depth research.
- In a significant diplomatic move, Ukraine's new foreign minister, Andriy Sybyha (replacing Dmytro Kuleba), recalled Ukraine's chargé d'affaires to Georgia, citing his "complete misunderstanding of the realities of the diplomacy of a warring state."
- Sybyha stresses the priority of securing weapons and support for the Ukrainian armed forces and encourages ambassadors to take initiative rather than waiting for instructions from Kyiv, signaling a shift towards a more proactive, Western-style diplomatic approach.
Strikes Deep Inside Russia: Justification and Implications
🎦 28:06-31:40⏩
- Jonathan discusses the justification for Ukrainian strikes deep within Russian territory.
- The head of the Ukrainian presidential administration argues that, in response to Russia receiving ballistic missiles (potentially from North Korea), Ukraine should be allowed to target the warehouses storing these weapons using Western-provided arms. This is presented as a necessary measure to prevent further terror attacks on Ukraine and not as an escalation of the conflict.
- He cites the recent strike on Voronezh (suspected of housing KN-23 ballistic missiles) as a potential example of this strategy in action.
- Shifting focus to the intensity of the conflict, he shares Andrew Perpetua's observations about the "insane" number of bombs Russia is using in the Kursk region, exceeding anything seen before.
- Perpetua quotes a Ukrainian soldier: "In the Kursk direction, the Russians have a completely different approach to counter-battery. Their artillery is still not spread out in the direction, so they just F with Kabooms."
- Jonathan connects this to the stalling of the Russian offensive in Prokrosk, suggesting a possible re-prioritization of Russian guided glide bombs (KABs) away from that front and towards Kursk.
- He acknowledges a user comment about the effectiveness of Russian KABs and their long range, noting their ability to strike deep into Ukraine while remaining out of range of Ukrainian Patriot missile defence systems. This poses a significant challenge for Ukraine, as deploying Patriot systems close to the front line to counter the KAB threat would expose them to unacceptable risk.
Ukrainian Buildup in Kursk and Russian Panic
🎦 31:40-34:35⏩
- Jonathan highlights the Ukrainian military's strategic decision to focus on the Kursk region, quoting General Zaluzhnyi's CNN interview, stating it proved to be the weakest point in Russia's defences. This, he argues, has had a knock-on effect on Russia's ability to manoeuvre troops and resources, potentially impacting other fronts, including Prokrosk, despite no direct redeployments from that area.
- He reports on rising panic within Russian channels about a significant Ukrainian buildup in Kursk.
- Sources suggest the arrival of fresh Ukrainian reserves, including the 11th Brigade of the National Guard (redeployed from Kherson), to strengthen their second line of defence.
- Additionally, Ukraine has deployed engineering troops to Kursk, potentially indicating preparations for a future offensive operation.
- Further reports from WarMonitor and other sources (including the pro-Russian volunteer "Ghost of Novosyolovka") confirm the presence of elite Ukrainian units like the 47th Brigade, "Magyar's Birds," and elements of the "K2" battalion in Kursk, adding to Russian anxieties.
Russian Propagandist "13th" Deletes Anti-Kremlin Rant
🎦 34:35-36:35⏩
- Jonathan discusses a video released and quickly deleted by the prominent Russian milblogger "13th," known for his pro-war stance.
- In the video, "13th" launches a scathing attack on the Kremlin, accusing them of betrayal and blaming Putin directly for the war's failings.
- His rant, reminiscent of the infamous Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, suggests deep dissatisfaction within elements of the Russian military.
- Jonathan quotes the deleted video: "Everything that is happening now is betrayal. Traitors are sitting in the Kremlin. If 10 years ago, one man hadn't shit himself and as they say, had gone F off honestly and not quietly 10 years ago, then all this s* wouldn't have happened, and so many guys wouldn't have died."
- He directly challenges Putin's authority: "We are a lot. We can reset the whole country. You are old. Soon you will die."
- Although "13th" later issued a forced apology, Jonathan believes this outburst highlights the growing discontent and potential instability within the Russian military.
Crimean Bridge Deteriorating, Vulnerable to Further Attack
🎦 36:35-37:28⏩
- Jonathan shares information from the Atesh partisan group operating in Crimea, reporting that the Crimean Bridge is steadily weakening due to damage from recent attacks.
- He displays images of the bridge, revealing visible structural degradation.
- The partisan group claims that a reduction in Russian air defences around the bridge makes it increasingly vulnerable to future attacks.
- Jonathan ponders whether Ukraine might exploit the upcoming storm season (and the likely destruction of protective booms around the bridge) to launch a new attack using unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), such as the Magura V5.
Wrap Up
🎦 37:28-39:15⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by expressing his gratitude for viewers' support, particularly for the fundraising efforts for Land Rover Snatch and Medevac vehicles being delivered by Greg Terry. He announces the postponement of his planned live stream with Greg to the following day due to unforeseen circumstances, promising to share more details about the vehicles and their deployment in the upcoming stream.
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"Is Russia speaking? Yes = Russia is lying. No = Russia is thinking of a lie."
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
No queries at this time.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is how I will approach this task:
Understand the context: I will carefully read and understand the provided context about "ATP Distilled" and Jonathan's work.
Follow the task instructions: I will follow the step-by-step instructions for each task, paying attention to the rules and guidance provided.
Maintain consistency: I will ensure consistency in language (British English), spelling of Ukrainian place names, and formatting of the XML tags throughout the summary.
Proofread and edit: I will proofread and edit the summary for any errors before submitting the final response.
